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This is not true. Sweden experienced a spike in unemployment, despite not having a lockdown. "People are too afraid about getting sick and dying to go outside"

This is not true. Sweden experienced a spike in unemployment, despite not having a lockdown. "People are too afraid about getting sick and dying to go outside" is pretty much directly attributable to the pandemic.

pgwhalen 6y ago
> People are too afraid about getting sick and dying to go outside This is still a response to the pandemic, just a non-governmental one. I'm not saying such a response isn't justified, but it is not directly attributable to the disease.
- scarmig 6y ago
  If a hurricane came and destroyed a bunch of people's homes and businesses and people stopped working, it would be more reasonable to say that "the hurricane caused mass unemployment" than it would be to say "the hurricane didn't cause unemployment, it was just people's individual decisions to not work out of a pile of flooded rubble that's causing the unemployment."
  - pgwhalen 6y ago
    This doesn't seem like a fair analogy for a number of reasons. But mostly just that COVID itself is not destroying businesses, whereas a hurricane literally is.
    - scarmig 6y ago
      A hurricane isn't directly destroying anything except the building the business operates from; the business still exists. In principle employees could still walk to the rubble to work and customers could walk to the rubble to exchange money for services, but the material conditions make both of those untenable, in the same way the material conditions of COVID make working and buying things untenable.
      - pgwhalen 6y ago
        I'm trying to assume a good faith argument here, but I'm struggling to. So I'll just say that we see the situation very differently.
xyzzyz 6y ago
Sweden experienced a spike from ~7% to ~9%. US has experienced a spike from ~3% to ~14%. Sure, some of it might be attributable to social attitudes, but I don't think that such a big discrepancy can be explained by this. I think it's mostly lockdown policies causing this. Sweden: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTSEM156S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTSEM156S US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- scarmig 6y ago
  I do agree that lockdowns increase unemployment compared to not, holding all things being equal (which is almost the point). For comparison, two countries more culturally similar to Sweden who did institute lockdown measures: Norway: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LMUNRRTTNOM156S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LMUNRRTTNOM156S Denmark: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTDKM156N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTDKM156N Norway went from ~2% to ~9.5% and is now back to ~4.5%. And you can barely see a blip in Denmark from 5% to 6%. This leads us to the obvious conclusion ???.

pgwhalen 6y ago

> People are too afraid about getting sick and dying to go outside This is still a response to the pandemic, just a non-governmental one. I'm not saying such a response isn't justified, but it is not directly attributable to the disease.

scarmig 6y ago
If a hurricane came and destroyed a bunch of people's homes and businesses and people stopped working, it would be more reasonable to say that "the hurricane caused mass unemployment" than it would be to say "the hurricane didn't cause unemployment, it was just people's individual decisions to not work out of a pile of flooded rubble that's causing the unemployment."
- pgwhalen 6y ago
  This doesn't seem like a fair analogy for a number of reasons. But mostly just that COVID itself is not destroying businesses, whereas a hurricane literally is.
  - scarmig 6y ago
    A hurricane isn't directly destroying anything except the building the business operates from; the business still exists. In principle employees could still walk to the rubble to work and customers could walk to the rubble to exchange money for services, but the material conditions make both of those untenable, in the same way the material conditions of COVID make working and buying things untenable.
    - pgwhalen 6y ago
      I'm trying to assume a good faith argument here, but I'm struggling to. So I'll just say that we see the situation very differently.

xyzzyz 6y ago

Sweden experienced a spike from ~7% to ~9%. US has experienced a spike from ~3% to ~14%. Sure, some of it might be attributable to social attitudes, but I don't think that such a big discrepancy can be explained by this. I think it's mostly lockdown policies causing this. Sweden: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTSEM156S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTSEM156S US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

scarmig 6y ago
I do agree that lockdowns increase unemployment compared to not, holding all things being equal (which is almost the point). For comparison, two countries more culturally similar to Sweden who did institute lockdown measures: Norway: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LMUNRRTTNOM156S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LMUNRRTTNOM156S Denmark: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTDKM156N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTDKM156N Norway went from ~2% to ~9.5% and is now back to ~4.5%. And you can barely see a blip in Denmark from 5% to 6%. This leads us to the obvious conclusion ???.