12 ms·

I was walking the trash bins down our long drive to the road yesterday in a soup of wildfire smoke and fog when it occurred to me — we sure have a compartmental

by gdubs 6y ago

I was walking the trash bins down our long drive to the road yesterday in a soup of wildfire smoke and fog when it occurred to me — we sure have a compartmentalized way of looking at the issues plaguing the world right now. Part of that is the sheer complexity of our contemporary world. There are few polymaths — most are specialists. It feels like we’re sorely lacking people who see across many fields to synthesize everything that’s happening. But it feels pretty clear that the system is on the fritz, has been for a while, and we’re incredibly stupid to not take bold action to fix it. Instead, we’re still having arguments about whether people are the cause. Of. Course. We. Are.

mhb 6y ago
we’re still having arguments about whether people are the cause. Of. Course. We. Are. You seem to discount the anthropocentric argument (as it should be) and then promptly jump right in to it. Why does it matter what the cause is?
- damon_c 6y ago
  If I thought something was God's will, the last thing I'd do is try to stop it!
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- charwalker 6y ago
  There is a large chunk of the US voter population that thinks that even if climate change is real it isn't human driven and therefor totally natural or by God's design. So of course nothing should be done about it because either it isn't real or it isn't human caused. This is also the group that often votes single issue or directly against their best interest much like What's the matter with Kansas. Surprisingly, Kansas itself hasn't read that book and seems to repeat history every time the GOP wants less taxes.
  - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
    >This is also the group that often votes single issue or directly against their best interest much like What's the matter with Kansas. Surprisingly, Kansas itself hasn't read that book and seems to repeat history every time the GOP wants less taxes. Oh please. Inner city minorities have been voting for gun control (good luck getting the cops to show up let alone promptly in some places) since long before climate change was a thing. The bases of both parties are rife with cognitive dissonance. You could probably count on one hand the number of people in the other country who agree with everything in an official party platform if you present each policy goal in isolation instead of as a platform. Proclaiming that people are voting against their interest is just calling them stupid or saying you know what's good for them better than they do with some obfuscation thrown in to make it fit in better in "polite" conversation.
    - IG_Semmelweiss 6y ago
      Unfortunately this is typical of the elites in bith sides. They know whats best for you. So they can give you Iraq, Credit Crisis, Vietnam, Covid19 in nursing homes, etc
    - doublethrowaway 6y ago
      ==Proclaiming that people are voting against their interest is just calling them stupid or saying you know what's good for them better than they do with some obfuscation thrown in to make it fit in better in "polite" conversation. == Kind of like you do in this sentence: "Inner city minorities have been voting for gun control (good luck getting the cops to show up let alone promptly in some places) since long before climate change was a thing." Are you calling them stupid or just saying you know what's good for them better than they do?
      - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
        The implication that I thought was obvious was that in light of their voting patterns they're either stupid or there's something other than "what will benefit me personally the most" that's driving their voting and I know which one I'm betting on.
- Retric 6y ago
  It’s generally more difficult to actually fix something without knowing the cause.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - mhb 6y ago
    It's also a good idea to understand that the search for a solution can proceed independently of knowing the cause of the problem.
  - notabee 6y ago
    It's even more difficult when the cause has been known for decades but doesn't jive with people's means of income or religious views and is thus roundly ignored or debated in bad faith.
- xoa 6y ago
  >Why does it matter what the cause is? Are you being serious? The cause is a key part of choosing the most efficient response. Responses can potentially involve both reactionary measures to climate forcing and reductionary measures trying to reduce forcing. If the cause was, say, the sun getting brighter by 15% for some reason, well we can't just turn down the sun, so while yes we'd having just a much motivation to respond our range of actions would be purely on the reaction side, reducing incoming solar insolation maybe. And that'd further just be bringing things back into the comfortable range we and everything else have been living in. But since instead the cause is human driven fossil carbon emissions, both different reaction measures and reducing the cause in the first place are possible and important. To take the above example, solar shading would be a bad idea because while yes it'd lower thermal input, it'd also reduce critical wavelengths used by primary producers below normal levels as well. That's a major side effect that's different from if the cause was different. And while we can mess with the sun, we certainly can treat net atmospheric carbon increases as the externality it is. But if you don't accept greenhouse gas emissions are an externality, why would you support internalizing those costs? If they weren't the cause after all it'd be uneconomic and pointless to go after them. I mean, I'm genuinely astonished to even be writing this on HN. Like if my "computer broke", well if the cause is a dead SSD that's quite different then a dead mobo or fried PSU or "5 year old knocked a potted plant onto it then 7 year old poured seltzer water on it to clean it off". Would you be saying "what does it matter what the cause was" there?
  - mhb 6y ago
    We have a problem and need to find the best way to fix it. Understanding the cause in order to find one possible fix is an obvious thing to do. So is looking for any other possible solutions. It is an unnecessary constraint that we need to solve the problem only by reversing its cause. If the cause of the problem was a brighter sun but we could save the planet by internalizing the cost of our emissions, it seems like it would be wise to do that regardless of whether an earth umbrella might address the root cause more directly.
    - TomSwirly 6y ago
      I can just imagine you as a doctor. "We don't need to know what's causing the disease - we'll just give you medicine, that has to work!"
- OneLeggedCat 6y ago
  Because a majority of Americans will believe it most proper to do NOTHING about it if they believe that the cause is of divine origin. A politically powerful and obvious majority.
ohyes 6y ago
But frankly, it doesn't matter if we're the cause or not, we're the only thing around that could potentially do anything to save ourselves. So ya know, we kinda should regardless of whose fault it is.
- just_fred 6y ago
  We would have to shut down 90% of the pollutants world wide to do anything. Will make the Covid shutdowns look like a long weekend. And even then it might not make a difference if climate change is out of our control. You willing to do that?
  - matmann2001 6y ago
    Yes. I prefer this planet in its habitable state.
  - clankyclanker 6y ago
    Yup, because in the mid-term, the alternative is basically the same anyway. I don’t want to be uncharitable, but I can’t help reading your comment as, “we shouldn’t be inconvenienced to prevent ours and our children’s suffering.” That can’t be a correct reading, can it?
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - scrozart 6y ago
    This statement is hyperbolic and unhelpful at best. The citizens of countries all over the world have indicated, en masse, they are willing to make drastic changes. Their governments are either slow to react or beholden to the financial interests of the worst offenders.
  - mlillie 6y ago
    Given that some 35% of global emissions this century have come from such unnecessary atrocities as the War on Terror[1] I am confident we have a good starting point for things to cut. [1] https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2019/Pentagon%20Fuel%20Use%2C%20Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Costs%20of%20War%20Final.pdf https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/20...
vixen99 6y ago
Is forest management, among other things, really that complicated in terms of what one has to do? The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE), cites shrubs and live and dead vegetation as <the most important factor> in forest fires, 'being an easily ignitable fuel source that helps spread the flames quickly over vast distances.' It's worth noting that NASA reports that global fires are down by 25% between 2003 and 2019. In other words, there has been a global decrease in the total number of square kilometers burned each year. Africa 'dominates in terms of the sheer number of fires'. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145421/building-a-long-term-record-of-fire https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145421/building-a-l...
- hirako2000 6y ago
  deforestation overall is not going down though.
- hirako2000 6y ago
  deforestation overall is not going down though. And even if deforestation caused by fire went down for the last decade it doesn't mean reforestation outpaces it.
mathgladiator 6y ago
All I feel these days is despair. It's hard enough to get people to just wear masks, or not throw parties with active covid infection. I think and feel that we are doomed. I wonder if the polymaths have just given up.
- gspr 6y ago
  Remember not to conflate the loudness and visibility of the idiots with their numbers!
  - ben_w 6y ago
    Anyone who uses public transport can get a good idea of the percentage of noncompliance in their area. Here in Berlin, I see an average of four people not wearing masks or wearing them wrong on an average half-full train carriage or bus.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
      Vee häff camz in Hamburg. If the driver sees that, it's end of the line for them. If they are cought by "Kontrolletties" it's that plus 80EUR fine. Winke, Winke :-) edit: Written as experienced multiple times in the last few weeks. Fine was initially 40EUR.
- mpfundstein 6y ago
  in NL, we dont wear masks. and we are totally fine. ofc you dont get people to wear masks if its not necessary at all.
  - kemiller 6y ago
    The point isn't masks per se. Masks do in fact slow transmission, but there are multiple strategies which can work if everyone abides by them. But that's the issue — people won't agree to even the simple rules, no matter how inoffensive, because the breakdown in social trust is so profound, and so the whole system suffers.
  - 6y ago
hashtagmarkup 6y ago
We're not even arguing about whether people are the cause... we're arguing about if people are allowed to call someone with a penis 'He' or not.
rriepe 6y ago
I've noticed that every issue ends with this exact post. Despite the actual complexity or circumstance of the issue, at the end is always a guy on a soapbox talking about exactly one thing. It's only ever one thing and it never has anything to do with the complexity of the situation. It is always, always always about anthropogenic climate change due to carbon. It's like getting pamphlets at the airport. You do not read them but you know what they're about.
DenisM 6y ago
> whether people are the cause. Of. Course. We. Are. And that's how conversations go to hell. You just postulate your own correctness and the opposing side recoils from that. Do you really think it's productive?
- gdubs 6y ago
  Merry and Pippin spend the entirety of Two Towers trying to convince the Ents that they are not, in fact, Orcs (while the Shire burns). We’ve spent decades just trying to get people to agree on facts, basic facts supported by the majority of scientific consensus. So, forgive me my frustration, but at a certain point we have to agree the sky is blue [1] and move on to the “what are we going to do about it” part. 1: Well, normally it’s blue at least.
alfor 6y ago
The problem is the prevention of forest fire. It's normal for the west cost to burn. But we don't want that, so we stop it for as long as we can. But at some point the condition are just perfect: hot, dry, windy and then it burn like never before. This is common knowledge among firefighter.
ghthor 6y ago
Are we the cause of Venus, Jupiter, Mars and Saturn being on the fritz as well? They are experience major magnetic field changes as is Earth. Are we responsible for the changes on the other planets as well?

by gdubs 6y ago

mhb 6y ago

we’re still having arguments about whether people are the cause. Of. Course. We. Are. You seem to discount the anthropocentric argument (as it should be) and then promptly jump right in to it. Why does it matter what the cause is?

damon_c 6y ago
If I thought something was God's will, the last thing I'd do is try to stop it!
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
charwalker 6y ago
There is a large chunk of the US voter population that thinks that even if climate change is real it isn't human driven and therefor totally natural or by God's design. So of course nothing should be done about it because either it isn't real or it isn't human caused. This is also the group that often votes single issue or directly against their best interest much like What's the matter with Kansas. Surprisingly, Kansas itself hasn't read that book and seems to repeat history every time the GOP wants less taxes.
- throwaway0a5e 6y ago
  >This is also the group that often votes single issue or directly against their best interest much like What's the matter with Kansas. Surprisingly, Kansas itself hasn't read that book and seems to repeat history every time the GOP wants less taxes. Oh please. Inner city minorities have been voting for gun control (good luck getting the cops to show up let alone promptly in some places) since long before climate change was a thing. The bases of both parties are rife with cognitive dissonance. You could probably count on one hand the number of people in the other country who agree with everything in an official party platform if you present each policy goal in isolation instead of as a platform. Proclaiming that people are voting against their interest is just calling them stupid or saying you know what's good for them better than they do with some obfuscation thrown in to make it fit in better in "polite" conversation.
  - IG_Semmelweiss 6y ago
    Unfortunately this is typical of the elites in bith sides. They know whats best for you. So they can give you Iraq, Credit Crisis, Vietnam, Covid19 in nursing homes, etc
  - doublethrowaway 6y ago
    ==Proclaiming that people are voting against their interest is just calling them stupid or saying you know what's good for them better than they do with some obfuscation thrown in to make it fit in better in "polite" conversation. == Kind of like you do in this sentence: "Inner city minorities have been voting for gun control (good luck getting the cops to show up let alone promptly in some places) since long before climate change was a thing." Are you calling them stupid or just saying you know what's good for them better than they do?
    - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
      The implication that I thought was obvious was that in light of their voting patterns they're either stupid or there's something other than "what will benefit me personally the most" that's driving their voting and I know which one I'm betting on.
Retric 6y ago
It’s generally more difficult to actually fix something without knowing the cause.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- mhb 6y ago
  It's also a good idea to understand that the search for a solution can proceed independently of knowing the cause of the problem.
- notabee 6y ago
  It's even more difficult when the cause has been known for decades but doesn't jive with people's means of income or religious views and is thus roundly ignored or debated in bad faith.
xoa 6y ago
>Why does it matter what the cause is? Are you being serious? The cause is a key part of choosing the most efficient response. Responses can potentially involve both reactionary measures to climate forcing and reductionary measures trying to reduce forcing. If the cause was, say, the sun getting brighter by 15% for some reason, well we can't just turn down the sun, so while yes we'd having just a much motivation to respond our range of actions would be purely on the reaction side, reducing incoming solar insolation maybe. And that'd further just be bringing things back into the comfortable range we and everything else have been living in. But since instead the cause is human driven fossil carbon emissions, both different reaction measures and reducing the cause in the first place are possible and important. To take the above example, solar shading would be a bad idea because while yes it'd lower thermal input, it'd also reduce critical wavelengths used by primary producers below normal levels as well. That's a major side effect that's different from if the cause was different. And while we can mess with the sun, we certainly can treat net atmospheric carbon increases as the externality it is. But if you don't accept greenhouse gas emissions are an externality, why would you support internalizing those costs? If they weren't the cause after all it'd be uneconomic and pointless to go after them. I mean, I'm genuinely astonished to even be writing this on HN. Like if my "computer broke", well if the cause is a dead SSD that's quite different then a dead mobo or fried PSU or "5 year old knocked a potted plant onto it then 7 year old poured seltzer water on it to clean it off". Would you be saying "what does it matter what the cause was" there?
- mhb 6y ago
  We have a problem and need to find the best way to fix it. Understanding the cause in order to find one possible fix is an obvious thing to do. So is looking for any other possible solutions. It is an unnecessary constraint that we need to solve the problem only by reversing its cause. If the cause of the problem was a brighter sun but we could save the planet by internalizing the cost of our emissions, it seems like it would be wise to do that regardless of whether an earth umbrella might address the root cause more directly.
  - TomSwirly 6y ago
    I can just imagine you as a doctor. "We don't need to know what's causing the disease - we'll just give you medicine, that has to work!"
OneLeggedCat 6y ago
Because a majority of Americans will believe it most proper to do NOTHING about it if they believe that the cause is of divine origin. A politically powerful and obvious majority.

ohyes 6y ago

But frankly, it doesn't matter if we're the cause or not, we're the only thing around that could potentially do anything to save ourselves. So ya know, we kinda should regardless of whose fault it is.

just_fred 6y ago
We would have to shut down 90% of the pollutants world wide to do anything. Will make the Covid shutdowns look like a long weekend. And even then it might not make a difference if climate change is out of our control. You willing to do that?
- matmann2001 6y ago
  Yes. I prefer this planet in its habitable state.
- clankyclanker 6y ago
  Yup, because in the mid-term, the alternative is basically the same anyway. I don’t want to be uncharitable, but I can’t help reading your comment as, “we shouldn’t be inconvenienced to prevent ours and our children’s suffering.” That can’t be a correct reading, can it?
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- scrozart 6y ago
  This statement is hyperbolic and unhelpful at best. The citizens of countries all over the world have indicated, en masse, they are willing to make drastic changes. Their governments are either slow to react or beholden to the financial interests of the worst offenders.
- mlillie 6y ago
  Given that some 35% of global emissions this century have come from such unnecessary atrocities as the War on Terror[1] I am confident we have a good starting point for things to cut. [1] https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2019/Pentagon%20Fuel%20Use%2C%20Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Costs%20of%20War%20Final.pdf https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/20...

vixen99 6y ago

Is forest management, among other things, really that complicated in terms of what one has to do? The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE), cites shrubs and live and dead vegetation as <the most important factor> in forest fires, 'being an easily ignitable fuel source that helps spread the flames quickly over vast distances.' It's worth noting that NASA reports that global fires are down by 25% between 2003 and 2019. In other words, there has been a global decrease in the total number of square kilometers burned each year. Africa 'dominates in terms of the sheer number of fires'. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145421/building-a-long-term-record-of-fire https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145421/building-a-l...

hirako2000 6y ago
deforestation overall is not going down though.
hirako2000 6y ago
deforestation overall is not going down though. And even if deforestation caused by fire went down for the last decade it doesn't mean reforestation outpaces it.

mathgladiator 6y ago

All I feel these days is despair. It's hard enough to get people to just wear masks, or not throw parties with active covid infection. I think and feel that we are doomed. I wonder if the polymaths have just given up.

gspr 6y ago
Remember not to conflate the loudness and visibility of the idiots with their numbers!
- ben_w 6y ago
  Anyone who uses public transport can get a good idea of the percentage of noncompliance in their area. Here in Berlin, I see an average of four people not wearing masks or wearing them wrong on an average half-full train carriage or bus.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
    Vee häff camz in Hamburg. If the driver sees that, it's end of the line for them. If they are cought by "Kontrolletties" it's that plus 80EUR fine. Winke, Winke :-) edit: Written as experienced multiple times in the last few weeks. Fine was initially 40EUR.
mpfundstein 6y ago
in NL, we dont wear masks. and we are totally fine. ofc you dont get people to wear masks if its not necessary at all.
- kemiller 6y ago
  The point isn't masks per se. Masks do in fact slow transmission, but there are multiple strategies which can work if everyone abides by them. But that's the issue — people won't agree to even the simple rules, no matter how inoffensive, because the breakdown in social trust is so profound, and so the whole system suffers.
- 6y ago

hashtagmarkup 6y ago

We're not even arguing about whether people are the cause... we're arguing about if people are allowed to call someone with a penis 'He' or not.

rriepe 6y ago

I've noticed that every issue ends with this exact post. Despite the actual complexity or circumstance of the issue, at the end is always a guy on a soapbox talking about exactly one thing. It's only ever one thing and it never has anything to do with the complexity of the situation. It is always, always always about anthropogenic climate change due to carbon. It's like getting pamphlets at the airport. You do not read them but you know what they're about.

DenisM 6y ago

> whether people are the cause. Of. Course. We. Are. And that's how conversations go to hell. You just postulate your own correctness and the opposing side recoils from that. Do you really think it's productive?

gdubs 6y ago
Merry and Pippin spend the entirety of Two Towers trying to convince the Ents that they are not, in fact, Orcs (while the Shire burns). We’ve spent decades just trying to get people to agree on facts, basic facts supported by the majority of scientific consensus. So, forgive me my frustration, but at a certain point we have to agree the sky is blue [1] and move on to the “what are we going to do about it” part. 1: Well, normally it’s blue at least.

alfor 6y ago

The problem is the prevention of forest fire. It's normal for the west cost to burn. But we don't want that, so we stop it for as long as we can. But at some point the condition are just perfect: hot, dry, windy and then it burn like never before. This is common knowledge among firefighter.

ghthor 6y ago

Are we the cause of Venus, Jupiter, Mars and Saturn being on the fritz as well? They are experience major magnetic field changes as is Earth. Are we responsible for the changes on the other planets as well?