I feel like this article is trying to draw predictions from faulty baselines. Being "overdue" for something is rarely a good indicator for when it will happen.

I feel like this article is trying to draw predictions from faulty baselines. Being "overdue" for something is rarely a good indicator for when it will happen. On top of this, the sample size of only a handful of bear markets / recessions is not a great sample size for drawing averages. The law of large numbers certainly doesn't come into play, and we can't really rely on this distribution being Gaussian. The reality is that we don't know when the next bear market will happen or how long it will last. If we knew when the next bear market would happen, it wouldn't. If we knew how long the current bear market will last, it would end. It's the same argument that if it's known that a stock price will go from $100 to $101 tomorrow, demand for it will increase to the point it will reach $101 today.