5 ms·

I wouldn't be so sure. Fundamentals don't matter much in this market.

by Miner49er 6y ago

xwdv 6y ago
The time for fundamentals will return soon.
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  If "soon" is "less than a decade" I'd probably agree with you, but I still wouldn't be certain. The housing market took 6 years to go from front cover of the Economist to crash. A large reason for the market strangeness is the helicopter money from the Fed and the essentially zero interest rate environment. The helicopter money might end soon, but the crazy low interest rates might be here to stay. We might have to redefine what the fundamentals are.
  - yholio 6y ago
    There is only so much zero interest money you can burn through before people taking those loans realize that you have no product and they will be still liable for the principal. Nikola has no battery edge. Their hydrogen tech is vaporware - after more then 20 years of massive public and private investment in Japan and Germany, Hydrogen failed to achieve a competitive position in the marketplace. Hell, it has been 17 years since Bush Jr announced his plan for a "Hydrogen economy" - nothing materialized. Hidrogen is dead an buried, not coming back. Nikola has no propulsion in a market where even the company that has the best electric propulsion - Tesla - is struggling to put a compelling semi.
  - pgwhalen 6y ago
    A small note: Helicopter Money has a relatively precise definition, and what the US government (and Federal Reserve) has done in 2020 does not fit that definition. The Fed's activities still fall under the umbrella of Quantitative Easing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money
- josefresco 6y ago
  "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
- mschuster91 6y ago
  I assume you are referring to the upcoming elections with "soon" - the problem is, the Fed won't be stopping the money presses so soon, and with all the cheap money in the market it will always drive to find even the most tiny returns. Even if these "returns" are scams.
- NationalPark 6y ago
  Right, but when you're shorting this stock you're assigning a deadline to this prediction. And a pretty aggressive one - I assume your expiration is before the election, otherwise you're essentially buying election IV.
- valuearb 6y ago
  Warren Buffett and Ben Graham would laugh uproariously at this statement.

I wouldn't be so sure. Fundamentals don't matter much in this market.

xwdv 6y ago

The time for fundamentals will return soon.

bryanlarsen 6y ago
If "soon" is "less than a decade" I'd probably agree with you, but I still wouldn't be certain. The housing market took 6 years to go from front cover of the Economist to crash. A large reason for the market strangeness is the helicopter money from the Fed and the essentially zero interest rate environment. The helicopter money might end soon, but the crazy low interest rates might be here to stay. We might have to redefine what the fundamentals are.
- yholio 6y ago
  There is only so much zero interest money you can burn through before people taking those loans realize that you have no product and they will be still liable for the principal. Nikola has no battery edge. Their hydrogen tech is vaporware - after more then 20 years of massive public and private investment in Japan and Germany, Hydrogen failed to achieve a competitive position in the marketplace. Hell, it has been 17 years since Bush Jr announced his plan for a "Hydrogen economy" - nothing materialized. Hidrogen is dead an buried, not coming back. Nikola has no propulsion in a market where even the company that has the best electric propulsion - Tesla - is struggling to put a compelling semi.
- pgwhalen 6y ago
  A small note: Helicopter Money has a relatively precise definition, and what the US government (and Federal Reserve) has done in 2020 does not fit that definition. The Fed's activities still fall under the umbrella of Quantitative Easing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money
josefresco 6y ago
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
mschuster91 6y ago
I assume you are referring to the upcoming elections with "soon" - the problem is, the Fed won't be stopping the money presses so soon, and with all the cheap money in the market it will always drive to find even the most tiny returns. Even if these "returns" are scams.
NationalPark 6y ago
Right, but when you're shorting this stock you're assigning a deadline to this prediction. And a pretty aggressive one - I assume your expiration is before the election, otherwise you're essentially buying election IV.
valuearb 6y ago
Warren Buffett and Ben Graham would laugh uproariously at this statement.