3 ms·
Pre-1800, about 1.8 million ha burned each year in CA: https://www.sierraforestlegacy.org/Resources/Conservation/FireForestEcology/FireScienceResearch/FireHist
by simonsarris 6y ago
Pre-1800, about 1.8 million ha burned each year in CA:
https://www.sierraforestlegacy.org/Resources/Conservation/FireForestEcology/FireScienceResearch/FireHistory/FireHistory-Stephens07.pdf https://www.sierraforestlegacy.org/Resources/Conservation/Fi...
> Approximately 1.8 million ha burned annually in California prehistorically (pre 1800). Our estimate of prehistoric annual area burned in California is 88% of the total annual wildfire area in the entire US during a decade (1994–2004) characterized as ‘‘extreme’’ regarding wildfires. The idea that US wildfire area of approximately two million ha annually is extreme is certainly a 20th or 21st century perspective. Skies were likely smoky much of the summer and fall in California during the prehistoric period.
See also: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.2015.0345 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.201...
> Many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem [...] however, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends.
- wtvanhest 6y agoI'm not sure who the best person to ask on this topic is, but do you have any sense for smoke prediction models? Over the weekend, I put together the resources I could find easily, but I'm wondering what, if any good prediction models exist. Copernicus - https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/global-forecast-plots https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/global-forecast-plots NASA GEOS - https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/cf/classic_geos_cf/ https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/cf/classic_geos_cf/ From those, I concluded that we could see fresh air in san francisco as early as this afternoon. Right now, that doesn't seem possible, so I'm wondering if there are other models that exist?