6 ms·

Universities/colleges are about to be disrupted and ironically the tech sector is helping this with online learning. My guess is half of them will go away in th

Universities/colleges are about to be disrupted and ironically the tech sector is helping this with online learning. My guess is half of them will go away in the next few decades. Business can and will move. Sure the port is nice. I'm not sure how many jobs are tied to that thou?

phobosanomaly 6y ago
University attendance may dip, but with the rock-bottom prices, and incredibly simple transfer articulation agreements with the Cal States and UCs, I expect to see the community colleges pick up the slack. That's what the CCs were originally intended for anyway. First two years, then transfer to a UC. All of the quality, none of the sticker price. California Community Colleges already enroll over 2.1 million students. That's more than the population of the state of Idaho. Port infrastructure is widely documented as a key driver of economic growth. https://jshippingandtrade.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41072-018-0027-0 https://jshippingandtrade.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/... The port of Los Angeles alone offers direct employment to 1.6 million people worldwide. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Los_Angeles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Los_Angeles That's over double the population of the state of Wyoming.
- primrose 6y ago
  > 1.6 million people worldwide How many of the 1.6 million need to live here in LA? > University attendance may dip, but with the rock-bottom prices You can't compete with online prices if you have brick and mortar, hence Amazon. I would argue some disciplines still need shared spaces like medicine but even then, a lot of the learning could be done online. Uni's competitive advantage has been certification. There are now better ways to track a candidates fit for employment that also don't require deviations into non-career focused learning like art, literature or history. These classes are not meritless, they just don't help employment. I don't believe rock bottom prices will save the onslaught to come.
  - phobosanomaly 6y ago
    529,000 people. Still more than the population of Wyoming. I suppose neither of us has a crystal ball. We'll just have to see what happens in 20 years. How do you think a model would operate for university-level instruction that would both prepare kids for employment, offer a competitive level of socialization, collaborative problem-solving experience in multiple fields, and generalized knowledge so they don't turn into pigeon-holed hyperspecialists? How do you expose kids to a wide-enough variety of things that they are able to discover something they truly want to do for the rest of their life? How will you ensure that a university-degree doesn't remain a symbol of status? Basically, how do you go from University of Phoenix, to what you are describing?
    - primrose 6y ago
      > 529,000 people Fair enough > How do you think a model would operate for university-level instruction that would both prepare kids for employment Not sure, but Uni level instruction is probably sub-optimal for a large portion of the population. You are also still tethered to the pace set by the professor/instructor. Online would allow for students to move at their own pace. > offer a competitive level of socialization I don't think there's much MORE benefit to College socialization. I think this is a normal time period in everyone's life of being free of parents and responsible for yourself that Uni's use as evidence of benefit. EDIT This time period involves socializing with new people. > collaborative problem-solving experience in multiple fields I don't think this requires physical presence. > generalized knowledge so they don't turn into pigeon-holed hyperspecialists I don't know the numbers but I'm guessing the overwhelming majority of jobs never get much outside of hyperspecialization. This is a benefit of modern economies. Specialization allows for more productivity. But like with any job, people who want to can branch out. It would be easier if you didn't have to adhere to a college schedule. > How do you expose kids to a wide-enough variety of things that they are able to discover something they truly want to do for the rest of their life? The friction and overhead in Uni's to try different things is way higher than clicking a link online. Spending the remainder of 16 weeks studying something you hate, then changing majors is infinitely more cumbersome than just bailing and learning something else. If you want to force a broad subject matter on students, well that model will die out due to inefficiencies. > How will you ensure that a university-degree doesn't remain a symbol of status? It totally will. But it will be for the rich. Everyone else doesn't need to blow $200k to do software engineering, operate a camera, make art or pursue mathematics research. Google is already working on a program that will certify job applicants sans a college education. >Basically, how do you go from University of Phoenix, to what you are describing? Not sure. Online stuff evolves unlike Uni's which have been essentially the same for the last 50 years. Go to class/lab, listen to a lecture, take a test. Prices skyrocket. Online, things get better and cheaper faster.

phobosanomaly 6y ago

University attendance may dip, but with the rock-bottom prices, and incredibly simple transfer articulation agreements with the Cal States and UCs, I expect to see the community colleges pick up the slack. That's what the CCs were originally intended for anyway. First two years, then transfer to a UC. All of the quality, none of the sticker price. California Community Colleges already enroll over 2.1 million students. That's more than the population of the state of Idaho. Port infrastructure is widely documented as a key driver of economic growth. https://jshippingandtrade.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41072-018-0027-0 https://jshippingandtrade.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/... The port of Los Angeles alone offers direct employment to 1.6 million people worldwide. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Los_Angeles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Los_Angeles That's over double the population of the state of Wyoming.

primrose 6y ago
> 1.6 million people worldwide How many of the 1.6 million need to live here in LA? > University attendance may dip, but with the rock-bottom prices You can't compete with online prices if you have brick and mortar, hence Amazon. I would argue some disciplines still need shared spaces like medicine but even then, a lot of the learning could be done online. Uni's competitive advantage has been certification. There are now better ways to track a candidates fit for employment that also don't require deviations into non-career focused learning like art, literature or history. These classes are not meritless, they just don't help employment. I don't believe rock bottom prices will save the onslaught to come.
- phobosanomaly 6y ago
  529,000 people. Still more than the population of Wyoming. I suppose neither of us has a crystal ball. We'll just have to see what happens in 20 years. How do you think a model would operate for university-level instruction that would both prepare kids for employment, offer a competitive level of socialization, collaborative problem-solving experience in multiple fields, and generalized knowledge so they don't turn into pigeon-holed hyperspecialists? How do you expose kids to a wide-enough variety of things that they are able to discover something they truly want to do for the rest of their life? How will you ensure that a university-degree doesn't remain a symbol of status? Basically, how do you go from University of Phoenix, to what you are describing?
  - primrose 6y ago
    > 529,000 people Fair enough > How do you think a model would operate for university-level instruction that would both prepare kids for employment Not sure, but Uni level instruction is probably sub-optimal for a large portion of the population. You are also still tethered to the pace set by the professor/instructor. Online would allow for students to move at their own pace. > offer a competitive level of socialization I don't think there's much MORE benefit to College socialization. I think this is a normal time period in everyone's life of being free of parents and responsible for yourself that Uni's use as evidence of benefit. EDIT This time period involves socializing with new people. > collaborative problem-solving experience in multiple fields I don't think this requires physical presence. > generalized knowledge so they don't turn into pigeon-holed hyperspecialists I don't know the numbers but I'm guessing the overwhelming majority of jobs never get much outside of hyperspecialization. This is a benefit of modern economies. Specialization allows for more productivity. But like with any job, people who want to can branch out. It would be easier if you didn't have to adhere to a college schedule. > How do you expose kids to a wide-enough variety of things that they are able to discover something they truly want to do for the rest of their life? The friction and overhead in Uni's to try different things is way higher than clicking a link online. Spending the remainder of 16 weeks studying something you hate, then changing majors is infinitely more cumbersome than just bailing and learning something else. If you want to force a broad subject matter on students, well that model will die out due to inefficiencies. > How will you ensure that a university-degree doesn't remain a symbol of status? It totally will. But it will be for the rich. Everyone else doesn't need to blow $200k to do software engineering, operate a camera, make art or pursue mathematics research. Google is already working on a program that will certify job applicants sans a college education. >Basically, how do you go from University of Phoenix, to what you are describing? Not sure. Online stuff evolves unlike Uni's which have been essentially the same for the last 50 years. Go to class/lab, listen to a lecture, take a test. Prices skyrocket. Online, things get better and cheaper faster.