5 ms·

> For prolonged situation, higher order effects are going to become more important. More important for what? And for whom? Someone who just shaved 100% off of

by dlkf 6y ago

> For prolonged situation, higher order effects are going to become more important. More important for what? And for whom? Someone who just shaved 100% off of their 70-minute commute probably doesn't give a fuck that their awareness of the "local geography" (see: trash-draped blackberry bushes on the highway shoulder) is "eroding." Some of your points are legit (particularly 6), but your dismissal of what you call "first order effects" is essentially just proving OP's meta-point about the terms in which the discussion is being held.

amw-zero 6y ago
I found their overall response to be thoughtful and objective, and painted an overview of the situation. I found your response to hone in on one detail and contribute nothing useful to the conversation.
sriku 6y ago
"more important" than they are for short stints of the lockdown intervention. I'm not dismissing first order effects. They are important. However higher order effects are where feedback cycles usually reside (ex: whats happening with climate change). So ignoring them is not a good idea even if during the initial phases it might seem like obsessing over details. In poorer countries, we can't ignore the risk of people dying due to hunger triggered by lockdown for covid19, for ex. Public policy is hard and chock full of higher order effects. Common mental habits of super focused problem solvers don't help and can be downright bad to address such problems (ref: Dietrich Dorner's revealing book "The logic of failure"). Around my locality (Chennai, India) it is a very compelling argument that lack of awareness of local geography can be behind the dire water supply situation. For example, all localities with the name "pakkam" were originally in the vicinity of large water bodies .. nearly none of which are around today. Many localities were named after the dominant vegetation in the area, which you won't see any signs of today. Yeah the commute is probably not going to help much because the commuters will likely be on their phones or cursing the increased traffic due to the need to be in offices. Feedback loops start that way.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 6y ago
  > whats happening with climate change I'm not aware of any particular evidence that "second order effects" are driving climate change or causing feedback cycles. But I suppose it depends how you define it. What do you have in mind here?
  - eganist 6y ago
    Not the OP, but I've got a pretty concrete example of how these effects can potentially slow down human-driven climate change, which is what they were likely referring to. An immediate first-order effect is a lack of air travel. A resulting second-order effect will be the eventual shift in aircraft buying trends, pricing, scheduling, etc. to adjust to diminished air travel, something that cements more concretely the travel patterns we're adopting during the pandemic. Examples may include smaller but more fuel efficient planes, but also potentially ordering far less of them (we're seeing this now - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-american-airline-outlook/american-airlines-says-could-seek-larger-treasury-loan-defer-737-max-deliveries-idUSKBN2602GB https://www.reuters.com/article/us-american-airline-outlook/...) as well as possibly shifting seat availability in favor of business and premium classes to extract more value from people who do fly... ...which loops (to the OP's point) back into keeping more people from flying as a third-order effect. --- Et voila, significantly reduced air travel and a significant aid in our fight against climate change.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 6y ago
      So, to me,the dominant effect here is less demand for air travel->fewer flights. Fewer flights means less carbon emitted. Any knock-on effects seem to pale in comparison because air travel is so carbon intensive. If fewer flights is a "second order" effect here, I'd struggle to name anything that is a first order effect. I don't really think this is what the person I was responding to was talking about when they mentioned second order effects. But if it was then I question the usefulness of the terminology.
      - eganist 6y ago

by dlkf 6y ago

amw-zero 6y ago

I found their overall response to be thoughtful and objective, and painted an overview of the situation. I found your response to hone in on one detail and contribute nothing useful to the conversation.

sriku 6y ago

"more important" than they are for short stints of the lockdown intervention. I'm not dismissing first order effects. They are important. However higher order effects are where feedback cycles usually reside (ex: whats happening with climate change). So ignoring them is not a good idea even if during the initial phases it might seem like obsessing over details. In poorer countries, we can't ignore the risk of people dying due to hunger triggered by lockdown for covid19, for ex. Public policy is hard and chock full of higher order effects. Common mental habits of super focused problem solvers don't help and can be downright bad to address such problems (ref: Dietrich Dorner's revealing book "The logic of failure"). Around my locality (Chennai, India) it is a very compelling argument that lack of awareness of local geography can be behind the dire water supply situation. For example, all localities with the name "pakkam" were originally in the vicinity of large water bodies .. nearly none of which are around today. Many localities were named after the dominant vegetation in the area, which you won't see any signs of today. Yeah the commute is probably not going to help much because the commuters will likely be on their phones or cursing the increased traffic due to the need to be in offices. Feedback loops start that way.

asdfasgasdgasdg 6y ago
> whats happening with climate change I'm not aware of any particular evidence that "second order effects" are driving climate change or causing feedback cycles. But I suppose it depends how you define it. What do you have in mind here?
- eganist 6y ago
  Not the OP, but I've got a pretty concrete example of how these effects can potentially slow down human-driven climate change, which is what they were likely referring to. An immediate first-order effect is a lack of air travel. A resulting second-order effect will be the eventual shift in aircraft buying trends, pricing, scheduling, etc. to adjust to diminished air travel, something that cements more concretely the travel patterns we're adopting during the pandemic. Examples may include smaller but more fuel efficient planes, but also potentially ordering far less of them (we're seeing this now - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-american-airline-outlook/american-airlines-says-could-seek-larger-treasury-loan-defer-737-max-deliveries-idUSKBN2602GB https://www.reuters.com/article/us-american-airline-outlook/...) as well as possibly shifting seat availability in favor of business and premium classes to extract more value from people who do fly... ...which loops (to the OP's point) back into keeping more people from flying as a third-order effect. --- Et voila, significantly reduced air travel and a significant aid in our fight against climate change.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 6y ago
    So, to me,the dominant effect here is less demand for air travel->fewer flights. Fewer flights means less carbon emitted. Any knock-on effects seem to pale in comparison because air travel is so carbon intensive. If fewer flights is a "second order" effect here, I'd struggle to name anything that is a first order effect. I don't really think this is what the person I was responding to was talking about when they mentioned second order effects. But if it was then I question the usefulness of the terminology.
    - eganist 6y ago