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This theory is commonly called “Peak Oil” and has been repeatedly been debunked in practice since it was first proposed in the 1960s. https://en.wikipedia.org/

This theory is commonly called “Peak Oil” and has been repeatedly been debunked in practice since it was first proposed in the 1960s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#Predictions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#Predictions While certainly the quantity of fossil fuels is finite. It is unlikely we will ever “run out of fossil fuels” because the price will simply increase as supplies begin to run low. Then two things will happen: we will consume less and expand the scope of production to more expensive source. This has already happened repeatedly over the history of the fossil fuel industry.

roenxi 6y ago
> has been repeatedly been debunked in practice... You say debunked, then link to a table with a near total consensus that we'll have hit peak oil by 2060. The exception being the EIA putting out 2067 as a stretch goal. That is not a table of crackpots, that is groups like the World Bank, IEA, Shell, etc. Debunked usually means 'disproven', not 'consensus position'. > Then two things will happen: we will consume less and expand the scope of production to more expensive source. Either of those outcomes are a bigger threat than climate change. > This has already happened repeatedly over the history of the fossil fuel industry. We haven't ever hit peak oil before.
- BlueTemplar 6y ago
  There was a peak conventional oil in the US in the 1970's.
  - roenxi 6y ago
    The US never felt the full effects of that peak [0]. The difference was made up by imports and the US didn't have to face a raw decline in oil availability. Global peak oil is going to change that, or spark more very nasty wars as the US bullies people into continuing to send them oil. In this century it is quite likely that we'll see peak oil globally. It is a bigger threat than climate change. Anyone who was going to suffer from climate change is also one of the people vulnerable to the affects of oil availability reductions. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-consumption-by-country?tab=chart&year=latest&time=1965..latest&country=~USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-consumption-by-countr...
    - BlueTemplar 6y ago
      The 1970's peak oil triggered the oil crises. The 2006 world conventional peak oil popped the subprime bubble.
BlueTemplar 6y ago
> It is unlikely we will ever “run out of fossil fuels” because the price will simply increase as supplies begin to run low. Then two things will happen: we will consume less and expand the scope of production to more expensive source. You are just restating peak oil theory here.

roenxi 6y ago

> has been repeatedly been debunked in practice... You say debunked, then link to a table with a near total consensus that we'll have hit peak oil by 2060. The exception being the EIA putting out 2067 as a stretch goal. That is not a table of crackpots, that is groups like the World Bank, IEA, Shell, etc. Debunked usually means 'disproven', not 'consensus position'. > Then two things will happen: we will consume less and expand the scope of production to more expensive source. Either of those outcomes are a bigger threat than climate change. > This has already happened repeatedly over the history of the fossil fuel industry. We haven't ever hit peak oil before.

BlueTemplar 6y ago
There was a peak conventional oil in the US in the 1970's.
- roenxi 6y ago
  The US never felt the full effects of that peak [0]. The difference was made up by imports and the US didn't have to face a raw decline in oil availability. Global peak oil is going to change that, or spark more very nasty wars as the US bullies people into continuing to send them oil. In this century it is quite likely that we'll see peak oil globally. It is a bigger threat than climate change. Anyone who was going to suffer from climate change is also one of the people vulnerable to the affects of oil availability reductions. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-consumption-by-country?tab=chart&year=latest&time=1965..latest&country=~USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-consumption-by-countr...
  - BlueTemplar 6y ago
    The 1970's peak oil triggered the oil crises. The 2006 world conventional peak oil popped the subprime bubble.

BlueTemplar 6y ago

> It is unlikely we will ever “run out of fossil fuels” because the price will simply increase as supplies begin to run low. Then two things will happen: we will consume less and expand the scope of production to more expensive source. You are just restating peak oil theory here.