4 ms·

There's a difference between believing a plausible lie that one can't verify on their own, like Iraq having WMDs, verses believing an insane conspiracy theory l

There's a difference between believing a plausible lie that one can't verify on their own, like Iraq having WMDs, verses believing an insane conspiracy theory like that there's an Illuminati child sex/eating cult operating under a pizza shop. It's the level of fervor and delusion behind these beliefs that has me concerned.

_up 6y ago
QAnon also predicted the exact day/hour/minute of McCains death a month before he died. Trump also posted an image that had the file hash of the image start with "DOITQ" on Twitter. Can't blame people start to believe with these kind of predictions.
- spiderfarmer 6y ago
  Your comment id is 24455736. If you Google that number, this article pops up: https://europepmc.org/article/med/24455736 https://europepmc.org/article/med/24455736 Why do you want to sedate infants? Are you abusing infants?
  - _up 6y ago
    An Image where people around Trump make a Q symbol thats starts with a phrase that probability of occuring is less 2^30. I would say is more than just luck. QAnon posted on 25.07.2018 4:28pm a image of McCain with his hands up and with a black backdrop. McCain died 25.08.2018 4:28pm. A day before QAnon also stated that McCain's dog days are over and to Compare the minute and month of the previous post. Qanon also stated month in advance that McCain will get in secret the death panalty, but only people following him will know.
    - UncleMeat 6y ago
      What explanation do you have for the dozens of times that Q has said a specific date that the mass arrests were coming and nothing happened? The best you have is a file hash?
    - newacct583 6y ago
      Sorry, what's a "Q symbol"? That post is a picture of five people showing "thumbs up". And again, Trump doesn't get to pick that ID. It's generated internal to Twitter, the "message" you're imputing here isn't coming from Trump, it's coming from TWITTER. Edit: also, you're making a classic numeric error here. The likelihood of that particular "message" (DOITQ) in isolation isn't the number you're interested in, because other than the letter "Q" it doesn't contain any actual information to verify. You'd be here saying exactly the same thing if it read "DoItQ", "GoQ", "QAnon", "IluvQ", etc... There are literally MILLIONS of trivially constructable 1-5 character strings that might be interpreted as a "message" to someone that wants to see a message. And needless to say Trump has tweeted many thousands of such "messages".
    - scrollaway 6y ago
      I legitimately wonder: was there a point in your life maybe a decade ago or more, where you looked at the wildest conspiracy theorists (flat earthers and worse) etc and thought "wow, those people are fucking nuts"? Like, observed the type of thing they'd tell you in comments, how x and y and z lined up just right and "how do you explain that?!?!" and all that bollocks and thought "man, they're so far gone, I feel bad for them…" You realize what you're writing today, right?
- rsynnott 6y ago
  > Can't blame people start to believe with these kind of predictions. Agilent Technologies stock price will go up on Monday. Alcoa Corporation's stock price will go up on Monday. [... all the rest of the NYSE] Zynerba pharmaceuticals stock price will go up on Monday. Zyzec In's stock price will go up on Monday. I've just made about 6500 predictions. Some of them will come true. Based on that, would you believe everything I say? If someone makes enough predictions, some of them will come true or at least can be read as having come true. This doesn't mean that you should believe people when they predict things that they could not possibly predict.
  - _up 6y ago
    A lot of things Q says isn't verifiable yet, and maybe to most not believable but that doesn't make them categoricly "false". He predicted Christ Church hours before it happened and even said it will probably be a mass shooting this time outside the US. Although he claimed Europe as the country it might happen. He also predicted the El Paso shooting 48 hours in advance but wrongly claimed it happens in the next 24 hours. These are very close predictions and you also have to consider that an exact prediction would start people wondering if he couldn't have prevented them.
    - toomanyrichies 6y ago
      > ...you also have to consider that an exact prediction would start people wondering if he couldn't have prevented them. This sounds an awful lot like the "When he's right, he should be lauded, but when he's wrong it's because of $valid_reason." Am I summarizing what you're saying accurately? And if so, I have to ask- is there anything which would convince you that QAnon is untrustworthy and/or full of BS? If so, what would that be?
    - rsynnott 6y ago
      > He predicted Christ Church hours before it happened and even said it will probably be a mass shooting this time outside the US. Hold on, what did it predict exactly? Did it say "there'll be a mass shooting in New Zealand, on a specific day" or just "something violent will happen somewhere, maybe"? You're being taken in by a very old technique; make many, many, very vague predictions. Look at the daily news every day, either personally, or farm it out to your fanbase. Cross-reference the daily news with your library of predictions, and take anything that could possibly be read as predictive. Rinse, repeat. Nostradamus was a well-known offender (or, rather, he made the predictions, his fanbase did the rest). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postdiction#Skepticism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postdiction#Skepticism
- newacct583 6y ago
  So, you're a little mixed up on the image thing. He posted an image with a FILE NAME that begain with DOITQ. And I believe this has been pretty thoroughly debunked, as those file IDs (which don't look like a hash at all) are entirely under the control of Twitter, not the poster. This is the post you're talking about, btw: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/928325667556548608 https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/92832566755654860... I hadn't heard the McCain prediction before, and I suspect that's going to turn out to be a bit spun too. But I'd love to see it.
  - _up 6y ago
    It's still strange coincidence even if the id's aren't determistic, they still should be random. Here is the prediction [1], there was also a post shortly before his death that referenced this and hinted that the month [30] and minute [:28] will be relevant in the future, but it seems to be missing in all archives. Only the QAnon post [2] mentioning this additional info after the death is avaiable. [1] https://qposts.online/post/1706 https://qposts.online/post/1706 [2] https://qposts.online/post/1933 https://qposts.online/post/1933
    - rsynnott 6y ago
      So, wait, do you think Twitter is in on it? (They generate the IDs, not Donald). Like, what do you think is going on here? If not a coincidence, how do you think the ID got like that?
    - newacct583 6y ago
      Help me out here. I don't understand that message. It's a date and time, but it seems to have been sent on the same day it's "predicting"? This is getting awfully Nostradamusy for my tastes. I mean, everyone knew McCain was dying on the day he died, the announcement wasn't really a surprise. What exactly was predicted?
      - pwinnski 6y ago
        Not only was nothing actually predicted, the actual evidence for this user's claims is "missing in all the archives."
- spaced-out 6y ago
  >Trump also posted an image that had the file hash of the image start with "DOITQ" on Twitter. I'm sure the average Qultist doesn't know how hash codes work, but I would hope the HN crowd is tech-savvy enough to see how nonsensical this is.
- boring_twenties 6y ago
  Uh, file hashes are usually represented in hexadecimal. Four out of five of those characters are not valid hex.

_up 6y ago

QAnon also predicted the exact day/hour/minute of McCains death a month before he died. Trump also posted an image that had the file hash of the image start with "DOITQ" on Twitter. Can't blame people start to believe with these kind of predictions.

spiderfarmer 6y ago
Your comment id is 24455736. If you Google that number, this article pops up: https://europepmc.org/article/med/24455736 https://europepmc.org/article/med/24455736 Why do you want to sedate infants? Are you abusing infants?
- _up 6y ago
  An Image where people around Trump make a Q symbol thats starts with a phrase that probability of occuring is less 2^30. I would say is more than just luck. QAnon posted on 25.07.2018 4:28pm a image of McCain with his hands up and with a black backdrop. McCain died 25.08.2018 4:28pm. A day before QAnon also stated that McCain's dog days are over and to Compare the minute and month of the previous post. Qanon also stated month in advance that McCain will get in secret the death panalty, but only people following him will know.
  - UncleMeat 6y ago
    What explanation do you have for the dozens of times that Q has said a specific date that the mass arrests were coming and nothing happened? The best you have is a file hash?
  - newacct583 6y ago
    Sorry, what's a "Q symbol"? That post is a picture of five people showing "thumbs up". And again, Trump doesn't get to pick that ID. It's generated internal to Twitter, the "message" you're imputing here isn't coming from Trump, it's coming from TWITTER. Edit: also, you're making a classic numeric error here. The likelihood of that particular "message" (DOITQ) in isolation isn't the number you're interested in, because other than the letter "Q" it doesn't contain any actual information to verify. You'd be here saying exactly the same thing if it read "DoItQ", "GoQ", "QAnon", "IluvQ", etc... There are literally MILLIONS of trivially constructable 1-5 character strings that might be interpreted as a "message" to someone that wants to see a message. And needless to say Trump has tweeted many thousands of such "messages".
  - scrollaway 6y ago
    I legitimately wonder: was there a point in your life maybe a decade ago or more, where you looked at the wildest conspiracy theorists (flat earthers and worse) etc and thought "wow, those people are fucking nuts"? Like, observed the type of thing they'd tell you in comments, how x and y and z lined up just right and "how do you explain that?!?!" and all that bollocks and thought "man, they're so far gone, I feel bad for them…" You realize what you're writing today, right?
rsynnott 6y ago
> Can't blame people start to believe with these kind of predictions. Agilent Technologies stock price will go up on Monday. Alcoa Corporation's stock price will go up on Monday. [... all the rest of the NYSE] Zynerba pharmaceuticals stock price will go up on Monday. Zyzec In's stock price will go up on Monday. I've just made about 6500 predictions. Some of them will come true. Based on that, would you believe everything I say? If someone makes enough predictions, some of them will come true or at least can be read as having come true. This doesn't mean that you should believe people when they predict things that they could not possibly predict.
- _up 6y ago
  A lot of things Q says isn't verifiable yet, and maybe to most not believable but that doesn't make them categoricly "false". He predicted Christ Church hours before it happened and even said it will probably be a mass shooting this time outside the US. Although he claimed Europe as the country it might happen. He also predicted the El Paso shooting 48 hours in advance but wrongly claimed it happens in the next 24 hours. These are very close predictions and you also have to consider that an exact prediction would start people wondering if he couldn't have prevented them.
  - toomanyrichies 6y ago
    > ...you also have to consider that an exact prediction would start people wondering if he couldn't have prevented them. This sounds an awful lot like the "When he's right, he should be lauded, but when he's wrong it's because of $valid_reason." Am I summarizing what you're saying accurately? And if so, I have to ask- is there anything which would convince you that QAnon is untrustworthy and/or full of BS? If so, what would that be?
  - rsynnott 6y ago
    > He predicted Christ Church hours before it happened and even said it will probably be a mass shooting this time outside the US. Hold on, what did it predict exactly? Did it say "there'll be a mass shooting in New Zealand, on a specific day" or just "something violent will happen somewhere, maybe"? You're being taken in by a very old technique; make many, many, very vague predictions. Look at the daily news every day, either personally, or farm it out to your fanbase. Cross-reference the daily news with your library of predictions, and take anything that could possibly be read as predictive. Rinse, repeat. Nostradamus was a well-known offender (or, rather, he made the predictions, his fanbase did the rest). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postdiction#Skepticism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postdiction#Skepticism
newacct583 6y ago
So, you're a little mixed up on the image thing. He posted an image with a FILE NAME that begain with DOITQ. And I believe this has been pretty thoroughly debunked, as those file IDs (which don't look like a hash at all) are entirely under the control of Twitter, not the poster. This is the post you're talking about, btw: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/928325667556548608 https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/92832566755654860... I hadn't heard the McCain prediction before, and I suspect that's going to turn out to be a bit spun too. But I'd love to see it.
- _up 6y ago
  It's still strange coincidence even if the id's aren't determistic, they still should be random. Here is the prediction [1], there was also a post shortly before his death that referenced this and hinted that the month [30] and minute [:28] will be relevant in the future, but it seems to be missing in all archives. Only the QAnon post [2] mentioning this additional info after the death is avaiable. [1] https://qposts.online/post/1706 https://qposts.online/post/1706 [2] https://qposts.online/post/1933 https://qposts.online/post/1933
  - rsynnott 6y ago
    So, wait, do you think Twitter is in on it? (They generate the IDs, not Donald). Like, what do you think is going on here? If not a coincidence, how do you think the ID got like that?
  - newacct583 6y ago
    Help me out here. I don't understand that message. It's a date and time, but it seems to have been sent on the same day it's "predicting"? This is getting awfully Nostradamusy for my tastes. I mean, everyone knew McCain was dying on the day he died, the announcement wasn't really a surprise. What exactly was predicted?
    - pwinnski 6y ago
      Not only was nothing actually predicted, the actual evidence for this user's claims is "missing in all the archives."
spaced-out 6y ago
>Trump also posted an image that had the file hash of the image start with "DOITQ" on Twitter. I'm sure the average Qultist doesn't know how hash codes work, but I would hope the HN crowd is tech-savvy enough to see how nonsensical this is.
boring_twenties 6y ago
Uh, file hashes are usually represented in hexadecimal. Four out of five of those characters are not valid hex.