When people talk of the demise of a company with billions in cash (and more billions coming in every year), they are generally talking about the demise of its i

When people talk of the demise of a company with billions in cash (and more billions coming in every year), they are generally talking about the demise of its influence. The question isn't whether Microsoft will vanish next year (or even in a decade), because it won't. The question is will Microsoft be a leader or a follower? An innovator or a copy-cat? It isn't inconsistent to say that Microsoft will continue to sell a lot of copies of Windows and Office and remain very relevant in the enterprise, while at the same time saying that Microsoft, on its present course, is doomed (for lack of a better word). Because, the Microsoft that we know from the 80s and 90s just isn't the same Microsoft in a lot of ways that matter to geeks and investors. Much like GM isn't the same car company it was a couple decades ago. Things can always change. It's probably easier to claim the #1 spot or fall from the #1 spot, than to reclaim it, but it isn't impossible. As for XBox's success, I remain highly skeptical of that division. First, they haven't recouped the billions it took to enter the market. Most importantly though, you are only as good as your current console. There's little loyalty in the video game console market. Had the PS3 been better priced and launched sooner, the red-ring would have been a far bigger disaster. It's cut throat...which is great, but you simply can't say Xbox 720 will succeed because Xbox 360 [barely] came in 2nd place in a 3 person race.