It is a big if. My choice of words was very deliberate as I didn't wish to convey that our knowledge is sufficient. But the question here doesn't hinge on real

It is a big if. My choice of words was very deliberate as I didn't wish to convey that our knowledge is sufficient. But the question here doesn't hinge on real knowledge(our ability to ever gain it is in itself a huge question) but rather on belief in possessing the said knowledge. Otherwise every real world calculation of probability is meaningless as physical systems can't have proofs but rather more and more tested models acting as the prior in our calculations. I don't nominate any best. I don't have an idea either. I merely used a word used by a parent. Best could be minima, maxima or any other criteria of the function they choose to refer here. My point is if you have a belief that your model is good enough, you don't need a large number of trials to calculate a probability on whatever characteristic you choose. The accuracy of this result is a question but the question would remain similar to the scenario where you calculate the probability from a larger number of trials.