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Should Venture Firms Invest In Robotics?

15 points by Garbage 16y ago

bostonpete 16y ago
Brooks also probably didn’t win over many VCs when he joked: “Having a robot in your home is no longer a novelty–except for VCs. None of you have them. You all have Brazilian house cleaners.” I've gotta believe that plenty of VCs would find this amusing.
jonnathanson 16y ago
I know the phrase is WSJ's and not Brooks's own, but I take issue with "...the next Industrial Revolution." It's such an overused and seldom-realized promise. I've heard it said about robotics, about nanotechnology, about quantum computing, about cellular biology, about green tech, and about everything from cold fusion to lukewarm superconductors. Point is, there are any number of potential gamechangers already laying claim to the title. I have little doubt that any of these things, past a certain inflection point, could indeed bring about a new Industrial Revolution. But from an investment standpoint, which one actually has the clearest path to payoff in the shortest window? That's what VCs care about. Most of them aren't in the business of placing general bets on long-term trends. They'd much rather invest in specific companies or technologies that show specifically accelerated promise within a given sector. They don't want to invest in nanotech, for instance; they want to invest in the best company within nanotech, and at the right moment. [For what it's worth, I applaud iRobot and Brooks for being a leading company within the commercialization of robotics, and not just being wild-eyed cheerleaders for the overall field.]
Apocryphon 16y ago
Any mention of new interest in robotics always reminds me of Cory Doctorow's article in Wired from 2004: http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/machines.html http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/machines.html But for all of Asimov's ability to entertain us with his ideas, there's still no sign 65 years after his first robot story was penned of the artificial intelligence he envisioned. There's Asimo, Honda's million-dollar humaniform bot, which can move only when a real person is driving it, and Roomba, the autonomous robo-vacuum from iRobot whose movements resemble those of insects. Unlike rocketry - a real engineering discipline inspired by science fiction - intelligent robots (and virtual reality for that matter, which 20 years after cyberpunk is pretty much dead in the water) serve best as metaphors for the zeitgeist of their eras. Which makes me wonder- will there be new interest in VR as well? Or has AR made the concept obsolete until relevant advances in neurology produce The Matrix-style mindjacking?
- bitwize 16y ago
  The problem with VR was simulation sickness: the goggles and your balance system were telling you two different things. It probably won't really take off until we can construct hi-res hi-def simulated worlds with visual, audio, tactile, and orientation components and pump that data directly into our nervous systems (as in The Matrix). Robots, however, are practical. And the smarter they are, the more practical they become. Think self-driving automobiles, or robots that interact safely with humans on a factory or warehouse floor. They just won't look like Rosie from The Jetsons, or any sort of fanciful 20th-century-science-fiction robot, for some decades yet. (Or will they? Anyone else see the BigDog videos and immediately think "Metal Gear"?) Full disclosure: I work in robotics.
nickpinkston 16y ago
Is "robotics" even a relevant market category to invest in? It seems either too broad (factory automation, home auto, toys, etc.) to be have enough depth of knowledge, or too narrow to provide a large enough opportunity. How large do most robotics toys companies get? I think a more relevant question is about agile hardware as the future of manufacturing - which could be called an industrial revolution. Doing hardware (whether electronics, robotics, mechatronics, or pure plastic) on the cheap. The equipment and skills to make robotics companies are still very relevant to all hardware. If anyone hasn't seen the open hardware "Million Dollar Baby" Ignite video - you can see the future of agile (not just open) hardware is being enabled right now. http://vimeo.com/11407341 http://vimeo.com/11407341

15 points by Garbage 16y ago

Brooks also probably didn’t win over many VCs when he joked: “Having a robot in your home is no longer a novelty–except for VCs. None of you have them. You all have Brazilian house cleaners.” I've gotta believe that plenty of VCs would find this amusing.

jonnathanson 16y ago

I know the phrase is WSJ's and not Brooks's own, but I take issue with "...the next Industrial Revolution." It's such an overused and seldom-realized promise. I've heard it said about robotics, about nanotechnology, about quantum computing, about cellular biology, about green tech, and about everything from cold fusion to lukewarm superconductors. Point is, there are any number of potential gamechangers already laying claim to the title. I have little doubt that any of these things, past a certain inflection point, could indeed bring about a new Industrial Revolution. But from an investment standpoint, which one actually has the clearest path to payoff in the shortest window? That's what VCs care about. Most of them aren't in the business of placing general bets on long-term trends. They'd much rather invest in specific companies or technologies that show specifically accelerated promise within a given sector. They don't want to invest in nanotech, for instance; they want to invest in the best company within nanotech, and at the right moment. [For what it's worth, I applaud iRobot and Brooks for being a leading company within the commercialization of robotics, and not just being wild-eyed cheerleaders for the overall field.]

Apocryphon 16y ago

Any mention of new interest in robotics always reminds me of Cory Doctorow's article in Wired from 2004: http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/machines.html http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/machines.html But for all of Asimov's ability to entertain us with his ideas, there's still no sign 65 years after his first robot story was penned of the artificial intelligence he envisioned. There's Asimo, Honda's million-dollar humaniform bot, which can move only when a real person is driving it, and Roomba, the autonomous robo-vacuum from iRobot whose movements resemble those of insects. Unlike rocketry - a real engineering discipline inspired by science fiction - intelligent robots (and virtual reality for that matter, which 20 years after cyberpunk is pretty much dead in the water) serve best as metaphors for the zeitgeist of their eras. Which makes me wonder- will there be new interest in VR as well? Or has AR made the concept obsolete until relevant advances in neurology produce The Matrix-style mindjacking?

bitwize 16y ago
The problem with VR was simulation sickness: the goggles and your balance system were telling you two different things. It probably won't really take off until we can construct hi-res hi-def simulated worlds with visual, audio, tactile, and orientation components and pump that data directly into our nervous systems (as in The Matrix). Robots, however, are practical. And the smarter they are, the more practical they become. Think self-driving automobiles, or robots that interact safely with humans on a factory or warehouse floor. They just won't look like Rosie from The Jetsons, or any sort of fanciful 20th-century-science-fiction robot, for some decades yet. (Or will they? Anyone else see the BigDog videos and immediately think "Metal Gear"?) Full disclosure: I work in robotics.

nickpinkston 16y ago

Is "robotics" even a relevant market category to invest in? It seems either too broad (factory automation, home auto, toys, etc.) to be have enough depth of knowledge, or too narrow to provide a large enough opportunity. How large do most robotics toys companies get? I think a more relevant question is about agile hardware as the future of manufacturing - which could be called an industrial revolution. Doing hardware (whether electronics, robotics, mechatronics, or pure plastic) on the cheap. The equipment and skills to make robotics companies are still very relevant to all hardware. If anyone hasn't seen the open hardware "Million Dollar Baby" Ignite video - you can see the future of agile (not just open) hardware is being enabled right now. http://vimeo.com/11407341 http://vimeo.com/11407341