4 ms·

Where in Europe is war a possiblilty?

by LandR 6y ago

lqet 6y ago
Turkey vs. Greece is definitely a possibility. The tensions are extremely high at the moment and both countries are arming up.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  And that's why Germany is testing their sirens? Really, this is beyond ridiculous.
  - lqet 6y ago
    No, of course it isn't. I was just answering the parent's question.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
agapon 6y ago
No only a possibility but a fact. In very recent history and even right now.
menybuvico 6y ago
Right here and now? Nowhere. In the next 2-3 years? Well, Belarus, Ukraine and several nations around the Caspian sea have some akward situations that might escalate into something big, especially now that U.S. focus is on domestic matters and others (including the EU) might try to expand their zones of influence. In 5-10 years time, a lot could happen, depending on how the political and financial situations develop for the next year or so. There's a lot of tension right now, and worst case scenario after Brexit and COVID could mean prolonged financial difficulties that result in social unrest, and once you reach that point there's a lot of stuff that can go down-hill very fast. The probability is low, of course, but the possibility is there. EDIT: Oh, yeah, and the Greece/Turkey situation that a sibling comment mentioned is an eternal source of fun. Also, anything happening in the Near-East, like Lebanon, Syria and Israel has a potential to affect Europe and things turn quickly over there.
T-A 6y ago
Apart from the obvious [1], you may have noticed Lukashenko's repeated claims that NATO is threatening Belarus [2]. A war of convenience, started to justify a Russian military intervention in the country, could easily get out of hand due to the sensitivity of the region, in particular the Suwalki gap [3]. Countries around the area, including neutral Sweden, have been ratcheting up their military preparedness to that possibility [4]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass [2] https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/29/president-lukashenko-claims-nato-has-aggressive-plans-against-belarus https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/29/president-lukashenko-cla... [3] https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/suwalki-gap.htm https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/suwalki... [4] https://www.politico.eu/article/security-alert-sweden-gotland-cold-war-memories/ https://www.politico.eu/article/security-alert-sweden-gotlan...
jcranmer 6y ago
Possibility? Several places, in roughly decreasing order of likelihood by my estimation: * Russia v... well, just about anyone else. Russia has made it clear that they consider a large part of Eastern Europe to be their sphere of influence, and have twice this century (Georgia and Ukraine, the latter mostly undeclared) going to war to prevent "the West" from expanding influence. * Turkey v Greece and/or Cyprus. Discovery of gas in the eastern Mediterranean has meant that delineating EEZ boundaries there is critical, and especially given the fact that Greece owns a lot of islands just off Turkey's coast, there is an awfully high chance of flashpoints. Furthermore, there is a frozen conflict on the island of Cyprus itself that still poses risks for conflict. * Balkan War #i-don't-even-know-anymore. The place has long-lasting political antipathy between different countries that provoked two major periods of war (the Balkan Wars that culminated in World War I, and the very messy breakup of Yugoslavia). Serbia hasn't admitted that Kosovo is lost to it, and Bosnia is a fractious country that holds itself together only through a convoluted power structure that hasn't healed the wounds of the Yugoslav Wars. Reignition of war here definitely remains a possibility. * Civil war in Spain, Italy, or Britain [including a war between Britain and Ireland over Northern Ireland]. To be clear, I'm really scraping the barrel here: this is a war I consider possible, but extremely improbable. These countries have strong, persistent separatist movements--and national governments that are equally persistent in quashing them. It's possible, in exactly the wrong circumstances, that everyone ends up making moves that create a dispute that is only resolved by a war. * Don't forget the possibility of an external regional conflict escalating into a world war, much as what happened in World War I. This is largely a rehash of the first option, though, since that's the only great power alliance breakdown that could result in this situation. Note that you asked where it's a possibility, not where it is likely.
LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
Anywhere so called social hot-spots exist. Mostly concentrated around social/public housing projects, where people of different ethnicity/with migrantic background concentrate and organized (drug) criminality flourishes. The No-Go zones, expanding and overwhelming law enforcement. Some place(s) in Sweden come to mind, where they even have an App to rate the loudness of explosions, caused by turf wars of competing groups. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banlieue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banlieue in France. There seem to be some similar places in Belgium, and at least one in the Netherlands. About any https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_city https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_city / https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commuter_town https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commuter_town with large high-rise https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_estate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_estate in Germany. Do I need to say anything about recent events in some downtowns in the USA?

Where in Europe is war a possiblilty?

by LandR 6y ago

Where in Europe is war a possiblilty?

lqet 6y ago

Turkey vs. Greece is definitely a possibility. The tensions are extremely high at the moment and both countries are arming up.

jacquesm 6y ago
And that's why Germany is testing their sirens? Really, this is beyond ridiculous.
- lqet 6y ago
  No, of course it isn't. I was just answering the parent's question.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

agapon 6y ago

No only a possibility but a fact. In very recent history and even right now.

menybuvico 6y ago

Right here and now? Nowhere. In the next 2-3 years? Well, Belarus, Ukraine and several nations around the Caspian sea have some akward situations that might escalate into something big, especially now that U.S. focus is on domestic matters and others (including the EU) might try to expand their zones of influence. In 5-10 years time, a lot could happen, depending on how the political and financial situations develop for the next year or so. There's a lot of tension right now, and worst case scenario after Brexit and COVID could mean prolonged financial difficulties that result in social unrest, and once you reach that point there's a lot of stuff that can go down-hill very fast. The probability is low, of course, but the possibility is there. EDIT: Oh, yeah, and the Greece/Turkey situation that a sibling comment mentioned is an eternal source of fun. Also, anything happening in the Near-East, like Lebanon, Syria and Israel has a potential to affect Europe and things turn quickly over there.

T-A 6y ago

Apart from the obvious [1], you may have noticed Lukashenko's repeated claims that NATO is threatening Belarus [2]. A war of convenience, started to justify a Russian military intervention in the country, could easily get out of hand due to the sensitivity of the region, in particular the Suwalki gap [3]. Countries around the area, including neutral Sweden, have been ratcheting up their military preparedness to that possibility [4]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass [2] https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/29/president-lukashenko-claims-nato-has-aggressive-plans-against-belarus https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/29/president-lukashenko-cla... [3] https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/suwalki-gap.htm https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/suwalki... [4] https://www.politico.eu/article/security-alert-sweden-gotland-cold-war-memories/ https://www.politico.eu/article/security-alert-sweden-gotlan...

jcranmer 6y ago

Possibility? Several places, in roughly decreasing order of likelihood by my estimation: * Russia v... well, just about anyone else. Russia has made it clear that they consider a large part of Eastern Europe to be their sphere of influence, and have twice this century (Georgia and Ukraine, the latter mostly undeclared) going to war to prevent "the West" from expanding influence. * Turkey v Greece and/or Cyprus. Discovery of gas in the eastern Mediterranean has meant that delineating EEZ boundaries there is critical, and especially given the fact that Greece owns a lot of islands just off Turkey's coast, there is an awfully high chance of flashpoints. Furthermore, there is a frozen conflict on the island of Cyprus itself that still poses risks for conflict. * Balkan War #i-don't-even-know-anymore. The place has long-lasting political antipathy between different countries that provoked two major periods of war (the Balkan Wars that culminated in World War I, and the very messy breakup of Yugoslavia). Serbia hasn't admitted that Kosovo is lost to it, and Bosnia is a fractious country that holds itself together only through a convoluted power structure that hasn't healed the wounds of the Yugoslav Wars. Reignition of war here definitely remains a possibility. * Civil war in Spain, Italy, or Britain [including a war between Britain and Ireland over Northern Ireland]. To be clear, I'm really scraping the barrel here: this is a war I consider possible, but extremely improbable. These countries have strong, persistent separatist movements--and national governments that are equally persistent in quashing them. It's possible, in exactly the wrong circumstances, that everyone ends up making moves that create a dispute that is only resolved by a war. * Don't forget the possibility of an external regional conflict escalating into a world war, much as what happened in World War I. This is largely a rehash of the first option, though, since that's the only great power alliance breakdown that could result in this situation. Note that you asked where it's a possibility, not where it is likely.

LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago

Anywhere so called social hot-spots exist. Mostly concentrated around social/public housing projects, where people of different ethnicity/with migrantic background concentrate and organized (drug) criminality flourishes. The No-Go zones, expanding and overwhelming law enforcement. Some place(s) in Sweden come to mind, where they even have an App to rate the loudness of explosions, caused by turf wars of competing groups. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banlieue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banlieue in France. There seem to be some similar places in Belgium, and at least one in the Netherlands. About any https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_city https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_city / https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commuter_town https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commuter_town with large high-rise https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_estate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_estate in Germany. Do I need to say anything about recent events in some downtowns in the USA?