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>This is false, if you look at expected deaths So, would it be true if you looked at recorded deaths? After all, at the beginning of the pandemic they were ex

• shadowgovt 6y ago
  At the beginning of the pandemic, there was less information on the nature and pathology of the disease, as well as how well governments and people would be able to adapt new behaviors to contain it. With updated information, we can narrow the expectations between the most optimistic and pessimistic models, but recorded deaths will always be a lagging indicator. As of right now, the fivethirtyeight summary (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts) has a spread in the US between 231,000 Americans dead by Oct. 17 (IHME) and 205,000 dead by Oct 17 (Los Alamos). What has changed since the disease started is the death curve has gone from exponential to linear (thank goodness), which is likely due to public health controls having an effect (we can guess this because the curve linearized around mid-April, which is about a month after California began treating the disease as an emergency and 2 weeks after New York followed suit). As it stands, it'd take over a decade to reach a million US deaths, assuming nothing changes (i.e. assuming people continue to avoid unnecessary contact and travel and protect their respiration); had the curve stayed exponential, it would have taken under a year.