3 ms·

Well, they are better off so far than France, Italy, the U.K., Spain, and Belgium, which is most of western Europe. So in other words, as good or better than m

Well, they are better off so far than France, Italy, the U.K., Spain, and Belgium, which is most of western Europe. So in other words, as good or better than most of western Europe. Now, why western Europe, as a whole, has the worst mortality rates in the world, is a valid question, but it has nothing specifically to do with Sweden.

paulryanrogers 6y ago
By what measure are they better off?
cma 6y ago
France has 5X the population density of Sweden though, so maybe France did much better considering that. Sweden has lots of barren arctic area though so it may not be a fair measure. You'd want to know how many people the average person interacts with pre COVID or something.
- dariusj18 6y ago
  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density?year=latest&time=2020-09-09 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-po...
- SahAssar 6y ago
  One of the most populated reigons of sweden (skåne) has one of the lowest per capita infection rate. Globally (on a country level) there does not seem to be a strong correlation between density and infection. I think it will take years to get to the bottom of what works and what doesn't and why.
  - cma 6y ago
    I'm not sure what explains Skane being so low, but the highest per capita case county was also the county with the first case. So random seed case event timings seem to have been more important there: "On 31 January, the first Swedish case was confirmed in a woman in Jönköping who had travelled to Sweden from Wuhan, China, on 24 January directly from Wuhan. "
ZacharyPitts 6y ago
Why could be as simple as actual testing en masse, and publishing of the results.
notacoward 6y ago
Leaving out Germany, which is the single most populous state in western Europe, is some world-class cherry picking. If you want to narrow it down, the next logical comparison would be to Sweden's neighbors, and that doesn't look good either. What's the rational reason for choosing the very unique sample that you did?
- irq11 6y ago
  It isn’t cherry-picking to say “this European country has done better than <list of all European countries that are worse>”. The selection criteria is clear and consistent: you sort the countries and take the ones that are worse. It’s cherry-picking to take two countries that did better, simply because you prefer that narrative.
  - notacoward 6y ago
    > sort the countries and take the ones that are worse Ranking items and then choosing the most favorable is exactly where the phrase came from. "Clear and consistent" is not sufficient. Any lie can be clear and consistent. There also has to be a reason beyond self-interest for limiting the sample to a particular subset.
    - irq11 6y ago
      The term literally came from picking cherries. Observing where an item lies in a ranked list is no more or less biased than picking a median.
      - cygx 6y ago
        For reference, here's the list of major western European countries (population > 1M) ranked by deaths per capita attributed to COVID-19: Belgium Spain United Kingdom Italy Sweden France Netherlands Ireland Switzerland Portugal Germany Denmark Austria Finland Norway Greece "As good or better than most of western Europe" does not look like an accurate characterization of Sweden's position to me...
cygx 6y ago
Well, they are better off so far than France, Italy, the U.K., Spain, and Belgium What's your metric? Because in terms of deaths per capita, they are supposedly worse off than France - as well as the Netherlands, Ireland, Switzerland, Portugal, Germany, Denmark, Austria, Finland, Norway, and Greece. So far, Sweden is not doing as good or better than most of western Europe...
soco 6y ago
Italy, Spain and Switzerland were hit when nobody even knew what the virus was. By the time politics started to put measures into place, deaths already were starting to pile up. Sweden and other nations had time to prepare some kind of strategy, so I would put that gained time into equation as well. That's why the comparison to the neighbours is more appropriate. Also, their neighbours will have also more similar social patterns - and it's exactly on the social patterns that the whose Swedish strategy was built. What works for Sweden doesn't for others: you can't compare the human interactions in Stockholm with the interactions in Mallorca, so how could you even think to compare their approaches?
- thu2111 6y ago
  Switzerland? Deaths didn't "pile up" in Switzerland. Look at the excess death data. 2018 showed a bigger spike in deaths than 2020. Sweden's strategy would have worked fine everywhere. Most deaths are in care homes, that general lockdowns don't protect, and anyway, remember that they were never advertised as reducing deaths? The virus just comes back when lockdowns are over, even if you assume they work. Sweden is the winner of COVID, by far. It is indeed vindicated.

paulryanrogers 6y ago

By what measure are they better off?

cma 6y ago

France has 5X the population density of Sweden though, so maybe France did much better considering that. Sweden has lots of barren arctic area though so it may not be a fair measure. You'd want to know how many people the average person interacts with pre COVID or something.

dariusj18 6y ago
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density?year=latest&time=2020-09-09 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-po...
SahAssar 6y ago
One of the most populated reigons of sweden (skåne) has one of the lowest per capita infection rate. Globally (on a country level) there does not seem to be a strong correlation between density and infection. I think it will take years to get to the bottom of what works and what doesn't and why.
- cma 6y ago
  I'm not sure what explains Skane being so low, but the highest per capita case county was also the county with the first case. So random seed case event timings seem to have been more important there: "On 31 January, the first Swedish case was confirmed in a woman in Jönköping who had travelled to Sweden from Wuhan, China, on 24 January directly from Wuhan. "

ZacharyPitts 6y ago

Why could be as simple as actual testing en masse, and publishing of the results.

notacoward 6y ago

Leaving out Germany, which is the single most populous state in western Europe, is some world-class cherry picking. If you want to narrow it down, the next logical comparison would be to Sweden's neighbors, and that doesn't look good either. What's the rational reason for choosing the very unique sample that you did?

irq11 6y ago
It isn’t cherry-picking to say “this European country has done better than <list of all European countries that are worse>”. The selection criteria is clear and consistent: you sort the countries and take the ones that are worse. It’s cherry-picking to take two countries that did better, simply because you prefer that narrative.
- notacoward 6y ago
  > sort the countries and take the ones that are worse Ranking items and then choosing the most favorable is exactly where the phrase came from. "Clear and consistent" is not sufficient. Any lie can be clear and consistent. There also has to be a reason beyond self-interest for limiting the sample to a particular subset.
  - irq11 6y ago
    The term literally came from picking cherries. Observing where an item lies in a ranked list is no more or less biased than picking a median.
    - cygx 6y ago
      For reference, here's the list of major western European countries (population > 1M) ranked by deaths per capita attributed to COVID-19: Belgium Spain United Kingdom Italy Sweden France Netherlands Ireland Switzerland Portugal Germany Denmark Austria Finland Norway Greece "As good or better than most of western Europe" does not look like an accurate characterization of Sweden's position to me...

cygx 6y ago

Well, they are better off so far than France, Italy, the U.K., Spain, and Belgium What's your metric? Because in terms of deaths per capita, they are supposedly worse off than France - as well as the Netherlands, Ireland, Switzerland, Portugal, Germany, Denmark, Austria, Finland, Norway, and Greece. So far, Sweden is not doing as good or better than most of western Europe...

soco 6y ago

Italy, Spain and Switzerland were hit when nobody even knew what the virus was. By the time politics started to put measures into place, deaths already were starting to pile up. Sweden and other nations had time to prepare some kind of strategy, so I would put that gained time into equation as well. That's why the comparison to the neighbours is more appropriate. Also, their neighbours will have also more similar social patterns - and it's exactly on the social patterns that the whose Swedish strategy was built. What works for Sweden doesn't for others: you can't compare the human interactions in Stockholm with the interactions in Mallorca, so how could you even think to compare their approaches?

thu2111 6y ago
Switzerland? Deaths didn't "pile up" in Switzerland. Look at the excess death data. 2018 showed a bigger spike in deaths than 2020. Sweden's strategy would have worked fine everywhere. Most deaths are in care homes, that general lockdowns don't protect, and anyway, remember that they were never advertised as reducing deaths? The virus just comes back when lockdowns are over, even if you assume they work. Sweden is the winner of COVID, by far. It is indeed vindicated.