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The disease will not be wiped out by masks and hand washing. Germany and other countries are finding their rates of infection increasing as people leave their b

The disease will not be wiped out by masks and hand washing. Germany and other countries are finding their rates of infection increasing as people leave their bunkers. The model used by most of Europe is not sustainable. People can’t bunker down in their homes forever. Sweden’s model shows that you can keep your economy open and reasonably manage the disease. People who are going to die are the elderly by enlarge. That is sad. However they would die soon enough due to their age and pre existing issues. Why sacrifice the economy for the elderly’s two years while harming the next generation by poor remote education and harming the current adults due to destroyed economic activity?

ChuckNorris89 6y ago
Nobody in Europe is bunkered in their homes since March-April. The numbers have increased exactly because people are free to go anywhere on their summer vacation and party as they wish, causing new fires to erupt.
cygx 6y ago
Your cost-benefit analysis is incomplete: Covid-19 can cause long-term lung damage even in the young.
- listenallyall 6y ago
  So can smoking. What is your point?
- controversy 6y ago
  We don’t know that. The body could heal. Also there was little thought to comorbidities in most papers.
  - cygx 6y ago
    You're right to point out that I should have thrown in some further qualification (it's too early to make definitive statements about long-term consequences). Apparently, there was some significant recovery of lung damage in the aftermath of the 2002 SARS-CoV-1 outbreak (Pulmonary interstitial damage and functional decline caused by SARS mostly recovered, with a greater extent of recovery within 2 years after rehabilitation. [1]) This doesn't change the fact that this has to be accounted for if you want to play the numbers game. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41413-020-0084-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41413-020-0084-5
- wsinks 6y ago
  Not trying to antagonize, but I'm looking for more research / validation on long term effects. Can you provide a source for me? Thank you!
  - SahAssar 6y ago
    We probably can't get long term results to study until there has been a long term.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
jrochkind1 6y ago
So, it's pretty inaccurate to describe Germany's response as "masks and hand-washing". Germany still has spikes they need to deal with, but is also doing really well, when in fact people in Germany are not bunkering down in their homes forever. Germany is currently way more open than the U.S. is and is doing way better at control of the disease. Precisely becuase their response is not limited to "masks and hand-washing". "Masks and hand-washing" and "bunkering down" in fact describes the USA response better than it describes the German response. And Germany is doing a lot better than the USA. The USA is being hobbled by a strange belief that the only options are "masks, hand-washing and bunkering down must be done forever and are sufficient", or "ignore it and just let as many people get infected as will under business as usual." With one of those seen as a "left" position and the other as a "right" position. Neither is actually an effective response; neither actually characterizes the response of countries like Germany who have been very effective in controlling the pandemic. It is insanity, and we've been stuck in it for six months, I keep wondering when Americans will realize those aren't the only choices; apparently never? Maybe because some people still think there is going to be some magic bullet "when the vaccine" and we can just wait it out until then; that's not how it's going to work, we're going to be dealing with this for years, and need to be finding sustainable solutions, not arguing about whether we should do something insufficient and unsustainable OR do nothing at all. What Germany's response has involved is massive testing, a quality healthcare system with universal access, supporting people in quarantine, supporting people financially so nobody has to go to work sick or in non-safe situations in order to stay secure financially, and it goes on from there. All of this is somehow unimaginable in the USA, where people can only conceive of "masks, hand-washing, and staying home", or "pretty much ignore it".
- toip34 6y ago
  Up to 90% of the positive cases in the US would not be positive in Germany due to how PCR tests are performed in each country, and what countries code as coronavirus deaths also differs. Making comparisons between countries is hard. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testin...
  - 6y ago
Smoosh 6y ago
> sacrifice the economy for the elderly’s two years No. It isn't just 2 years off some elderly people who were going to die soon anyway (not that that isn't an extremely callous position to hold): https://www.businessinsider.com.au/study-finds-that-people-who-have-coronavirus-could-die-10-years-early-2020-5 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/study-finds-that-people-w...
- controversy 6y ago
  You should follow through on some of those links to the actual papers. They have structural problems. The first assumed that there was a 50% chance of the individuals living to 100. That is not realistic. But the business insider article does allow for people to sensationalize and feel smug in their knowledge that the long term economic and existential damage from bunkering and collapsing the economy was all worth it.

ChuckNorris89 6y ago

Nobody in Europe is bunkered in their homes since March-April. The numbers have increased exactly because people are free to go anywhere on their summer vacation and party as they wish, causing new fires to erupt.

cygx 6y ago

Your cost-benefit analysis is incomplete: Covid-19 can cause long-term lung damage even in the young.

listenallyall 6y ago
So can smoking. What is your point?
controversy 6y ago
We don’t know that. The body could heal. Also there was little thought to comorbidities in most papers.
- cygx 6y ago
  You're right to point out that I should have thrown in some further qualification (it's too early to make definitive statements about long-term consequences). Apparently, there was some significant recovery of lung damage in the aftermath of the 2002 SARS-CoV-1 outbreak (Pulmonary interstitial damage and functional decline caused by SARS mostly recovered, with a greater extent of recovery within 2 years after rehabilitation. [1]) This doesn't change the fact that this has to be accounted for if you want to play the numbers game. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41413-020-0084-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41413-020-0084-5
wsinks 6y ago
Not trying to antagonize, but I'm looking for more research / validation on long term effects. Can you provide a source for me? Thank you!
- SahAssar 6y ago
  We probably can't get long term results to study until there has been a long term.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

jrochkind1 6y ago

So, it's pretty inaccurate to describe Germany's response as "masks and hand-washing". Germany still has spikes they need to deal with, but is also doing really well, when in fact people in Germany are not bunkering down in their homes forever. Germany is currently way more open than the U.S. is and is doing way better at control of the disease. Precisely becuase their response is not limited to "masks and hand-washing". "Masks and hand-washing" and "bunkering down" in fact describes the USA response better than it describes the German response. And Germany is doing a lot better than the USA. The USA is being hobbled by a strange belief that the only options are "masks, hand-washing and bunkering down must be done forever and are sufficient", or "ignore it and just let as many people get infected as will under business as usual." With one of those seen as a "left" position and the other as a "right" position. Neither is actually an effective response; neither actually characterizes the response of countries like Germany who have been very effective in controlling the pandemic. It is insanity, and we've been stuck in it for six months, I keep wondering when Americans will realize those aren't the only choices; apparently never? Maybe because some people still think there is going to be some magic bullet "when the vaccine" and we can just wait it out until then; that's not how it's going to work, we're going to be dealing with this for years, and need to be finding sustainable solutions, not arguing about whether we should do something insufficient and unsustainable OR do nothing at all. What Germany's response has involved is massive testing, a quality healthcare system with universal access, supporting people in quarantine, supporting people financially so nobody has to go to work sick or in non-safe situations in order to stay secure financially, and it goes on from there. All of this is somehow unimaginable in the USA, where people can only conceive of "masks, hand-washing, and staying home", or "pretty much ignore it".

toip34 6y ago
Up to 90% of the positive cases in the US would not be positive in Germany due to how PCR tests are performed in each country, and what countries code as coronavirus deaths also differs. Making comparisons between countries is hard. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testin...
- 6y ago

Smoosh 6y ago

> sacrifice the economy for the elderly’s two years No. It isn't just 2 years off some elderly people who were going to die soon anyway (not that that isn't an extremely callous position to hold): https://www.businessinsider.com.au/study-finds-that-people-who-have-coronavirus-could-die-10-years-early-2020-5 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/study-finds-that-people-w...

controversy 6y ago
You should follow through on some of those links to the actual papers. They have structural problems. The first assumed that there was a 50% chance of the individuals living to 100. That is not realistic. But the business insider article does allow for people to sensationalize and feel smug in their knowledge that the long term economic and existential damage from bunkering and collapsing the economy was all worth it.