4 ms·

What data are you looking at? Median home price for Chicago (where I live incidentally) is 229,000, for Dallas is 225,000, for Houston is 197,000 according to

by mrep 6y ago

What data are you looking at? Median home price for Chicago (where I live incidentally) is 229,000, for Dallas is 225,000, for Houston is 197,000 according to this source [0] and those are the 3rd, 4th, and 5th largest metropolitan statistical areas in the United States and Dallas and Houston have both grown a whopping 19% in the past decade [1]. Trick is, they all still have plenty of land to build new homes on to keep up with demand growth. [0]: https://www.kiplinger.com/article/real-estate/t010-c000-s002-home-price-changes-in-the-100-largest-metro-areas.html https://www.kiplinger.com/article/real-estate/t010-c000-s002... [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistic...

mywittyname 6y ago
The past few years have hit the construction industry hard, with the trade war spiking steel prices, the crack down on immigration combined with low unemployment reducing the workforce, and now there's a lumber shortage to go along with the pandemic. I built a house during the beginning of this mess and it was painful: it took 13 months to build a house that would normally take 8. The cost of construction has risen such that I can't find a new construction house in my area for under $400,000 with the median on Zillow being $495,000. And this is for an area in the midwest that those reports you link report "median home price" of well under $200,000. If you can't build cheap houses, then soon there won't be cheap houses. A lot of cities on that first list are reporting 10%+ YoY changes. That's significant. Those used to be numbers you'd see in Seattle Washington, not fucking Allentown Pennsylvania...
charlesu 6y ago
The median home price doesn't mean much in Chicago. Most homes in the desirable neighborhoods are 1BR and 2BR condos and well over $300k or include outrageously high HOAs ($400 - $1K). There are thousands of sub $200k homes in the city but they're located in dangerous under resourced neighborhoods to the south and far west. In either case, you will pay 2% property taxes, which means comes out to $400 a month in property taxes -- about twice the amount you'd pay in any other part of the country. And that's in addition to 10% sales taxes and 4% income taxes. The only other places with property taxes that high have no income tax (Texas) or are near New York City. Chicago isn't nearly as great a deal as it's made out to be.
- OldHand2018 6y ago
  "desirable neighborhoods" in Chicago is code for living in a bubble (should be very firmly noted that this is NOT race-related). Yes, you pay a lot more for that. There are neighborhoods in the city that have lower crime, faster access to downtown, higher median incomes, better-rated schools and lower house prices than many of the "desirable neighborhoods". The Near South Side is an obvious example. However, you can look at the tax rates within Cook County and even compare them to the suburban counties [1]. The composite property tax rate is as low as it gets around here. Most cities are double or triple the Chicago rate. It isn't as good of a deal as when I moved here, but if you've got a tech or other white-collar salary, Chicago is still a really good deal. It's your responsibility to consider cost when choosing a location within the metro area. If you ignore it, you shouldn't be surprised that you pay more. [1] https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/service/tax-extension-and-rates https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/service/tax-extension-and-ra... EDIT - Illinois and Texas heavily depend on property taxes for local funding. The actual rates you pay have an insanely high variance from city to city. Some taxing districts don't align with city boundaries either, so one neighborhood may pay more than another. You can use it as a proxy for how well-run a city is, but on the other hand Chicago isn't a particularly well-run city - it just has a huge amount of high-value commercial and industrial property (which is taxed at double the rate of residential property). If you're going to live in either state, you really need to look at the hyper-local tax rates and put that into your decision matrix. The data isn't even hard to find.
  - jointpdf 6y ago
    Indeed, my shortlist is Chicago (and maybe Grand Rapids) at this point. I’ve always been in love with Chicago—such a gorgeous city. Housing wise, I’m enchanted by the industrial brick and timber loft condos that there seem to be a lot of for decent prices. Can you recommend other neighborhoods besides Lakeview/Lincoln Park? Those are the only areas I’ve spent significant time in aside from downtown.
    - OldHand2018 6y ago
      It really depends on where you plan to work, where your friends are, etc. I would recommend that you rent for a year or two and spend time exploring neighborhoods. You'll find a location you love eventually. There are definitely dangerous areas, but you're going to hear a lot of very outdated advice such as "never go south of Roosevelt" when in reality from Roosevelt south to Hyde Park has seen an incredible renaissance over the last 20 years. FYI, brick and timber loft condos are super cool, but they usually have strange layouts and the buildings tend to require a lot of maintenance. Don't let me scare you off, but you're going to want to rent one for a year before buying one, just to make sure.
jointpdf 6y ago
Here is some data backing up what I’ve been (mostly subjectively) observing. In particular, look at the skyrocketing median list/sale price (+10% YOY) and the YOY changes in sale price since ~2010. Also, medians are of course just an aggregate measure that does not tell the full story—low quality cookie cutter developments drag the medians down. Older homes in decent neighborhoods are even hotter. [0]: https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/ https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/ [1]: https://www.zillow.com/research/zillow-weekly-market-report-27151/ https://www.zillow.com/research/zillow-weekly-market-report-...

by mrep 6y ago

mywittyname 6y ago

The past few years have hit the construction industry hard, with the trade war spiking steel prices, the crack down on immigration combined with low unemployment reducing the workforce, and now there's a lumber shortage to go along with the pandemic. I built a house during the beginning of this mess and it was painful: it took 13 months to build a house that would normally take 8. The cost of construction has risen such that I can't find a new construction house in my area for under $400,000 with the median on Zillow being $495,000. And this is for an area in the midwest that those reports you link report "median home price" of well under $200,000. If you can't build cheap houses, then soon there won't be cheap houses. A lot of cities on that first list are reporting 10%+ YoY changes. That's significant. Those used to be numbers you'd see in Seattle Washington, not fucking Allentown Pennsylvania...

charlesu 6y ago

The median home price doesn't mean much in Chicago. Most homes in the desirable neighborhoods are 1BR and 2BR condos and well over $300k or include outrageously high HOAs ($400 - $1K). There are thousands of sub $200k homes in the city but they're located in dangerous under resourced neighborhoods to the south and far west. In either case, you will pay 2% property taxes, which means comes out to $400 a month in property taxes -- about twice the amount you'd pay in any other part of the country. And that's in addition to 10% sales taxes and 4% income taxes. The only other places with property taxes that high have no income tax (Texas) or are near New York City. Chicago isn't nearly as great a deal as it's made out to be.

OldHand2018 6y ago
"desirable neighborhoods" in Chicago is code for living in a bubble (should be very firmly noted that this is NOT race-related). Yes, you pay a lot more for that. There are neighborhoods in the city that have lower crime, faster access to downtown, higher median incomes, better-rated schools and lower house prices than many of the "desirable neighborhoods". The Near South Side is an obvious example. However, you can look at the tax rates within Cook County and even compare them to the suburban counties [1]. The composite property tax rate is as low as it gets around here. Most cities are double or triple the Chicago rate. It isn't as good of a deal as when I moved here, but if you've got a tech or other white-collar salary, Chicago is still a really good deal. It's your responsibility to consider cost when choosing a location within the metro area. If you ignore it, you shouldn't be surprised that you pay more. [1] https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/service/tax-extension-and-rates https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/service/tax-extension-and-ra... EDIT - Illinois and Texas heavily depend on property taxes for local funding. The actual rates you pay have an insanely high variance from city to city. Some taxing districts don't align with city boundaries either, so one neighborhood may pay more than another. You can use it as a proxy for how well-run a city is, but on the other hand Chicago isn't a particularly well-run city - it just has a huge amount of high-value commercial and industrial property (which is taxed at double the rate of residential property). If you're going to live in either state, you really need to look at the hyper-local tax rates and put that into your decision matrix. The data isn't even hard to find.
- jointpdf 6y ago
  Indeed, my shortlist is Chicago (and maybe Grand Rapids) at this point. I’ve always been in love with Chicago—such a gorgeous city. Housing wise, I’m enchanted by the industrial brick and timber loft condos that there seem to be a lot of for decent prices. Can you recommend other neighborhoods besides Lakeview/Lincoln Park? Those are the only areas I’ve spent significant time in aside from downtown.
  - OldHand2018 6y ago
    It really depends on where you plan to work, where your friends are, etc. I would recommend that you rent for a year or two and spend time exploring neighborhoods. You'll find a location you love eventually. There are definitely dangerous areas, but you're going to hear a lot of very outdated advice such as "never go south of Roosevelt" when in reality from Roosevelt south to Hyde Park has seen an incredible renaissance over the last 20 years. FYI, brick and timber loft condos are super cool, but they usually have strange layouts and the buildings tend to require a lot of maintenance. Don't let me scare you off, but you're going to want to rent one for a year before buying one, just to make sure.

jointpdf 6y ago

Here is some data backing up what I’ve been (mostly subjectively) observing. In particular, look at the skyrocketing median list/sale price (+10% YOY) and the YOY changes in sale price since ~2010. Also, medians are of course just an aggregate measure that does not tell the full story—low quality cookie cutter developments drag the medians down. Older homes in decent neighborhoods are even hotter. [0]: https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/ https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/ [1]: https://www.zillow.com/research/zillow-weekly-market-report-27151/ https://www.zillow.com/research/zillow-weekly-market-report-...