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I think there is something left out of the post, but it's hard to put my finger on it. In a vacuum, 71% does sound like a relatively low amount of evidence in f

I think there is something left out of the post, but it's hard to put my finger on it. In a vacuum, 71% does sound like a relatively low amount of evidence in favor of Biden, but when you put it next to most elections, which are only won by a thin margin, it sounds like a very impressive amount of evidence. Further, considering the amount of polarization in the USA, it seems like if 71% of respondents favor Biden, there is little probability of them switching to Trump. I agree that 71% is a low amount of evidence, but election forecasts really make my brain work to rationalize them. I think it's helpful to remember that forecasts are produced _after_ weighting them by states' electoral college shares.

ummonk 6y ago
Are you conflating share of vote with probability of victory? Your comment makes no sense.
- proto-n 6y ago
  They are, and I guess most people are too, unconsciously. That's why not winning while having a predicted 71% chance somehow becomes such a big thing. You hear "election" and "71%" in the same sentence and you immediately think that's a huge margin.
- IMTDb 6y ago
  This - I believe - is exactly why those prediction are so misunderstood. Most pollster usually give the expected vote share of each candidate. In this regard, a 60/40 split between two candidates in the polls means that the first candidate is nearly guaranteed to win the election. And for most elections, the split usually is much closer (a 53/47 split is already considered a "wide" margin). So years after years you see split like 55/45, 52/48, 57/43, ... and the expected candidates always wins. So when someone analysing an election comes up with a 70/30 split, the number seems incredibly high - there is now way we are getting this one wrong. It takes at least a second look to see that this guy is talking about something different and that the race actually is quite close this time.

ummonk 6y ago

Are you conflating share of vote with probability of victory? Your comment makes no sense.

proto-n 6y ago
They are, and I guess most people are too, unconsciously. That's why not winning while having a predicted 71% chance somehow becomes such a big thing. You hear "election" and "71%" in the same sentence and you immediately think that's a huge margin.
IMTDb 6y ago
This - I believe - is exactly why those prediction are so misunderstood. Most pollster usually give the expected vote share of each candidate. In this regard, a 60/40 split between two candidates in the polls means that the first candidate is nearly guaranteed to win the election. And for most elections, the split usually is much closer (a 53/47 split is already considered a "wide" margin). So years after years you see split like 55/45, 52/48, 57/43, ... and the expected candidates always wins. So when someone analysing an election comes up with a 70/30 split, the number seems incredibly high - there is now way we are getting this one wrong. It takes at least a second look to see that this guy is talking about something different and that the race actually is quite close this time.