3 ms·
Also: * 70% of global trade is currently denominated in USD (oil markets, commodities, etc) * US has a lot of debt to other nations * USD is the global reser
by robfitz 6y ago
Also:
* 70% of global trade is currently denominated in USD (oil markets, commodities, etc)
* US has a lot of debt to other nations
* USD is the global reserve currency, giving the US fairly unique economic power and security
If the USD gets printed into significant devaluation in order to support assets (like bonds, houses, corporates, stocks), then it reduces the real value of the debts that the US owes to other countries (since denominated in USD), which erodes their faith as lenders. Taken together, this:
* Erodes confidence in the USD as a global reserve currency and causes governments to look to other stores of value (e.g., government buying of gold has recently been at an all-time high)
* Artificially inflates asset prices, leading to a bigger crash later when the government support is unable to continue (due to reduced confidence from foreign lenders)
That's all pretty terrible for the US and USD, if it happens.
But there's also an equally credible (though counterintuitive) theory that the USD will actually go up in value (deflation) due to every other country in the world needing to take similarly drastic action and the US being destabilized the least (i.e., the least bad of a set of bad options and everyone rushing into USD and US investments for relative safety).
Plenty of very smart people are on both sides of this argument, but everyone agrees that we are buying ourselves some significant future pain.