4 ms·

Strange how none of the protests have any similar publicized effect like this event.

notyourwork 6y ago
It's not strange, what is strange is your implied political swing instead of discussing the specific event in the article.
blumomo 6y ago
Indeed. And strange how putting c19-positive elderlies back from hospital into nursery homes (presumably contaminating many others as reported from NY) hasn’t been called a superspreading effect yet.
- bananabreakfast 6y ago
  Probably because that's not what superspreading means?
wtallis 6y ago
It doesn't seem strange at all. None of the protests have had anything close to the sheer size of the rally, nor have they been attracting participants from such a broad area. Most of the protests have been very localized in size and scope, so while they may help spread the coronavirus within a community, they have much less potential for spreading coronavirus between communities.
- ISL 6y ago
  Seattle had 60,000+ masked people walking silently in the rain in June: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/thousands-march-in-seattle-in-silence-to-show-support-of-black-lives/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/thousands-march-in... It didn't get any appreciable national coverage because nobody broke anything, but the size of the march was roughly ~10% of the in-the-city-limits population of the city. Judging by the number of colleagues and friends we encountered, a substantial fraction of those marching were local.
- bananabreakfast 6y ago
  Don't forget the vast majority of attendees at the rally ignored all safety precautions, unlike most other large gatherings.
  - RickJWagner 6y ago
    Have you got some source to cite, please? It's not the impression I have. I saw photos of large crowds, chanting and singing, etc. at the protests.
grahamas 6y ago
"Researchers concluded that more than 266,000 cases were tied to the event attended by more than 460,000 individuals. [...] At least 260 cases in 11 states have been officially connected to the rally by government officials. [...] Most people who attended the event did not take coronavirus precautions like wearing masks and social distancing, The Associated Press reported at the time."
- SOLAR_FIELDS 6y ago
  I am trying to parse that first blurb “tied to the event”. Are they saying that of the 460k that went to the event, 260k of them are somehow associated with a coronavirus case? It’s not really clear what “tied to” means in the article at least.
rbecker 6y ago
That's because "Protests have been called ‘dangerous’ by chief medical officer, but research shows racism can be as deadly as coronavirus": https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/12/black-lives-matter-australia-protest-will-blm-protests-spark-second-covid-19-coronavirus-wave-health-experts https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/12/black... ""we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States." The letter conceded that mass protests carried the risk of spreading coronavirus": https://reason.com/2020/06/04/george-floyd-protesters-coronavirus-health-officials-disease/ https://reason.com/2020/06/04/george-floyd-protesters-corona... “In this moment the public health risks of not protesting to demand an end to systemic racism greatly exceed the harms of the virus.”: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/04/public-health-protests-301534 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/04/public-hea...
- neither_color 6y ago
  Those are nice gestures and statements but all it shows is that experts can be pressured to go along with political fads. 20,000+ african americans have died due to covid. Wagging the finger at any and all people wishing to gather for events except one particular group helps nobody. Furthermore, this has been politicized so much that contact tracers have been asked NOT to ask about people's protest activity. Either all mass outdoor gatherings are dangerous, or none are. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi... https://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-contact-tracers-not-asking-people-attend-george-floyd-protest-2020-6#:~:text=New%20York%27s%20team%20of%20contact-tracers%2C%20who%20are%20trying,for%20Mayor%20Bill%20de%20Blasio%2C%20told%20The%20City https://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-contact-tracers-not-aski....
  - manicdee 6y ago
    Just wear a mask and stop pointing the finger at people protesting institutionalised oppression as an excuse not to wear a mask.
alphabettsy 6y ago
It’s hard or impossible to find pictures of protests where the majority are not wearing masks, the opposite was true here. Also people were drinking and standing around, hardly the same thing.
chishaku 6y ago
Because the same authors did not find a similar effect with the protests. http://ftp.iza.org/dp13388.pdf http://ftp.iza.org/dp13388.pdf > This study uses newly collected data on protests in 315 of the largest U.S. cities to estimate the impacts of mass protests on social distancing and COVID-19 case growth. Event-study analyses provide strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased following protest onset, consistent with the hypothesis that non-protesters’ behavior was substantially affected by urban protests. This effect was not fully explained by the imposition of city curfews. Estimated effects were generally larger for persistent protests and those accompanied by media reports of violence. Furthermore, we find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset. We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived.

It's not strange, what is strange is your implied political swing instead of discussing the specific event in the article.

blumomo 6y ago

Indeed. And strange how putting c19-positive elderlies back from hospital into nursery homes (presumably contaminating many others as reported from NY) hasn’t been called a superspreading effect yet.

bananabreakfast 6y ago
Probably because that's not what superspreading means?

wtallis 6y ago

It doesn't seem strange at all. None of the protests have had anything close to the sheer size of the rally, nor have they been attracting participants from such a broad area. Most of the protests have been very localized in size and scope, so while they may help spread the coronavirus within a community, they have much less potential for spreading coronavirus between communities.

ISL 6y ago
Seattle had 60,000+ masked people walking silently in the rain in June: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/thousands-march-in-seattle-in-silence-to-show-support-of-black-lives/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/thousands-march-in... It didn't get any appreciable national coverage because nobody broke anything, but the size of the march was roughly ~10% of the in-the-city-limits population of the city. Judging by the number of colleagues and friends we encountered, a substantial fraction of those marching were local.
bananabreakfast 6y ago
Don't forget the vast majority of attendees at the rally ignored all safety precautions, unlike most other large gatherings.
- RickJWagner 6y ago
  Have you got some source to cite, please? It's not the impression I have. I saw photos of large crowds, chanting and singing, etc. at the protests.

grahamas 6y ago

"Researchers concluded that more than 266,000 cases were tied to the event attended by more than 460,000 individuals. [...] At least 260 cases in 11 states have been officially connected to the rally by government officials. [...] Most people who attended the event did not take coronavirus precautions like wearing masks and social distancing, The Associated Press reported at the time."

SOLAR_FIELDS 6y ago
I am trying to parse that first blurb “tied to the event”. Are they saying that of the 460k that went to the event, 260k of them are somehow associated with a coronavirus case? It’s not really clear what “tied to” means in the article at least.

rbecker 6y ago

That's because "Protests have been called ‘dangerous’ by chief medical officer, but research shows racism can be as deadly as coronavirus": https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/12/black-lives-matter-australia-protest-will-blm-protests-spark-second-covid-19-coronavirus-wave-health-experts https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/12/black... ""we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States." The letter conceded that mass protests carried the risk of spreading coronavirus": https://reason.com/2020/06/04/george-floyd-protesters-coronavirus-health-officials-disease/ https://reason.com/2020/06/04/george-floyd-protesters-corona... “In this moment the public health risks of not protesting to demand an end to systemic racism greatly exceed the harms of the virus.”: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/04/public-health-protests-301534 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/04/public-hea...

neither_color 6y ago
Those are nice gestures and statements but all it shows is that experts can be pressured to go along with political fads. 20,000+ african americans have died due to covid. Wagging the finger at any and all people wishing to gather for events except one particular group helps nobody. Furthermore, this has been politicized so much that contact tracers have been asked NOT to ask about people's protest activity. Either all mass outdoor gatherings are dangerous, or none are. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi... https://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-contact-tracers-not-asking-people-attend-george-floyd-protest-2020-6#:~:text=New%20York%27s%20team%20of%20contact-tracers%2C%20who%20are%20trying,for%20Mayor%20Bill%20de%20Blasio%2C%20told%20The%20City https://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-contact-tracers-not-aski....
- manicdee 6y ago
  Just wear a mask and stop pointing the finger at people protesting institutionalised oppression as an excuse not to wear a mask.

alphabettsy 6y ago

It’s hard or impossible to find pictures of protests where the majority are not wearing masks, the opposite was true here. Also people were drinking and standing around, hardly the same thing.

chishaku 6y ago

Because the same authors did not find a similar effect with the protests. http://ftp.iza.org/dp13388.pdf http://ftp.iza.org/dp13388.pdf > This study uses newly collected data on protests in 315 of the largest U.S. cities to estimate the impacts of mass protests on social distancing and COVID-19 case growth. Event-study analyses provide strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased following protest onset, consistent with the hypothesis that non-protesters’ behavior was substantially affected by urban protests. This effect was not fully explained by the imposition of city curfews. Estimated effects were generally larger for persistent protests and those accompanied by media reports of violence. Furthermore, we find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset. We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived.