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It's unlikely. I'm much more likely fatalities will drop to zero per week before the end of the year in countries with high spread and we'll have herd immunity

It's unlikely. I'm much more likely fatalities will drop to zero per week before the end of the year in countries with high spread and we'll have herd immunity (which is where Sweden is at now).

0x1A567BBF 6y ago
Sweden is nowhere close to achieving herd immunity (as everyone knows).
- logicchains 6y ago
  Then home come their case rate just keeps falling? And their death rate. And unlike the countries that locked down, they're not experiencing a second wave of cases.
  - tasogare 6y ago
    Even in countries where a second wave is happening, it’s a wave of infection only, not deaths. There is not reason to be scared of a disease that don’t kill. International travel restrictions should be lifted. We don’t need to wait for a vaccine that might be more a dangerous than to virus it’s supposed to fight. Current practices in East-Asia have shown to be enough to handle the thing.
    - kuhewa 6y ago
      There is not reason to be scared of a disease that don’t kill. What about one that causes permanent lung and/or heart damage?
      - lbeltrame 6y ago
        You mean like other viral infections, or bacterial pneumonia? As grave as the effects are, they are absolutely not unique to SARS-CoV-2.
        kuhewa 6y ago
        Sure, and those grave effects are a 'reason'
        lbeltrame 6y ago
        The incidence of these effects can be a reason. Unfortunately there are no reliable data on how they are prevalent.
        kuhewa 6y ago
        My point is insofar as one would/should fear death, they would/should fear a decent probability long term nonfatal consequences to some degree. Incomplete information doesn't obviate that. Nonfatal=/=nothing to fear
    - maerF0x0 6y ago
      This is not universally true. In parts of California there was a jump in death rate reasonably close to a partial reopening. And has very slowly been trending downwards since they re-closed everything. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
thehappypm 6y ago
This community refuses to acknowledge that Sweden’s strategy has merit.
- vkou 6y ago
  Ten times the cases, and ten times the deaths of its neighbors, and a 8.6% drop in GDP in Q2. Meanwhile, Norway lost 5.3% of its GDP, and Finland lost 4.9%. Exactly which part of this strategy has merit?
  - anoncareer0212 6y ago
    Not to mention Sweden is more locked down than the US - _0_ gatherings over 50 people allowed. 0. I'm astounded there's still people doing the 'debate me!' act about it, most gave up by July in the US, we had already clearly chose a more intense version of the Swedish 'strategy'
    - puranjay 6y ago
      I'm amazed that smart people have been advocating Sweden's strategy. Sweden has a population of 10 million. New York alone has more people than that. It's as if population size, distribution and density aren't even a consideration, let alone local practices.
      - logicchains 6y ago
        It was also the strategy of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Utah, and they seem to be doing a lot better in terms of both GDP hit and caseload than places like California and New York with heavy lockdowns.
        vkou 6y ago
        Iowa has a projected 9.5% GDP hit. New York has a projected ~14% GDP hit, and due to its density and reliance on elevators and public transit, will of course have a higher case load, and require harsher measures to control the spread. Half of the population of Iowa can fit in the 22 square miles of Manhattan. Oh, and infection rates in Iowa are climbing, whereas infection rates in New York peaked five months ago... And they are currently neck-and-neck in per-capita cases. So, how did a mostly rural state get a case rate that's as bad as a state that packs half of its population into a single sardine-can of a city? Is their strategy actually working, if they are getting the same outcome, despite having a much easier set of starting conditions to deal with? Meanwhile, in Canada, BC is projected to take a ~6% GDP hit... While having 1/10th the per-capita case load of Iowa, and higher population densities.
jessaustin 6y ago
Herd immunity isn't possible when antibodies are as transient as those seen for COVID-19. Only a massive public push with an actually effective vaccine will control this pandemic.
- anoncake 6y ago
  There have been what, three cases of people being infected twice? And they barely got sick?
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - kjaftaedi 6y ago
    The antibodies from infected people are being shown to last somewhere on an average of 3 months. Kinda hard to be immune if you have nothing to protect you. How sick you get from the disease is irrelevant in this context.
    - anonuser123456 6y ago
      Your understanding of the immune system is not quite correct. Just because you can't detect antibodies doesn't mean you lack immunity. B-cells can stop producing antibodies and reactivate production in response to an antigen. T-cell memory appears to be quite robust for coronaviruses (and this one in particular) To establish a lack of durable antibody response, challenge trials would need to be done, where the host is challenged by the virus (or something that looks like the virus like it's spike protein). These trials have not been run.
      - kuhewa 6y ago
        We can only guess without data specific to SARS-COV-2, but for seasonal coronaviruses, antibodies disappear after ~6 months and reinfection with the same strain can occur after 1 year.
    - 6y ago
kjaftaedi 6y ago
Even most 'high spread' countries have less than 10% of the population that have contracted the virus. To get to herd immunity levels, millions of people would likely die.
- djsumdog 6y ago
  Are you talking about antibodies? There are papers on T-cell immunity and clicks who've tested staff a month apart with no increase in antibody positive tests. It's probably WELL over 10%. There are more ways our immune system can develop memory than just antibodies and a number of studies are showing that.
kuhewa 6y ago
> we'll have herd immunity (which is where Sweden is at now). No, even Sweden's epidemiologists say that up to 30% of their population could be immune.[1] They tried to shoot the moon but missed. They are in a similar place to nearby countries now but got there with a much higher death toll [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-abandoned-herd-immunity-while-sweden-embraced-it-how-possible-is-it-to-achieve-herd-immunity-without-a-vaccine-2020-08-26 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-abandoned-herd-immunity...

It's unlikely. I'm much more likely fatalities will drop to zero per week before the end of the year in countries with high spread and we'll have herd immunity (which is where Sweden is at now).

0x1A567BBF 6y ago

Sweden is nowhere close to achieving herd immunity (as everyone knows).

logicchains 6y ago
Then home come their case rate just keeps falling? And their death rate. And unlike the countries that locked down, they're not experiencing a second wave of cases.
- tasogare 6y ago
  Even in countries where a second wave is happening, it’s a wave of infection only, not deaths. There is not reason to be scared of a disease that don’t kill. International travel restrictions should be lifted. We don’t need to wait for a vaccine that might be more a dangerous than to virus it’s supposed to fight. Current practices in East-Asia have shown to be enough to handle the thing.
  - kuhewa 6y ago
    There is not reason to be scared of a disease that don’t kill. What about one that causes permanent lung and/or heart damage?
    - lbeltrame 6y ago
      You mean like other viral infections, or bacterial pneumonia? As grave as the effects are, they are absolutely not unique to SARS-CoV-2.
      - kuhewa 6y ago
        Sure, and those grave effects are a 'reason'
        lbeltrame 6y ago
        The incidence of these effects can be a reason. Unfortunately there are no reliable data on how they are prevalent.
        kuhewa 6y ago
        My point is insofar as one would/should fear death, they would/should fear a decent probability long term nonfatal consequences to some degree. Incomplete information doesn't obviate that. Nonfatal=/=nothing to fear
  - maerF0x0 6y ago
    This is not universally true. In parts of California there was a jump in death rate reasonably close to a partial reopening. And has very slowly been trending downwards since they re-closed everything. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/

thehappypm 6y ago

This community refuses to acknowledge that Sweden’s strategy has merit.

vkou 6y ago
Ten times the cases, and ten times the deaths of its neighbors, and a 8.6% drop in GDP in Q2. Meanwhile, Norway lost 5.3% of its GDP, and Finland lost 4.9%. Exactly which part of this strategy has merit?
- anoncareer0212 6y ago
  Not to mention Sweden is more locked down than the US - _0_ gatherings over 50 people allowed. 0. I'm astounded there's still people doing the 'debate me!' act about it, most gave up by July in the US, we had already clearly chose a more intense version of the Swedish 'strategy'
  - puranjay 6y ago
    I'm amazed that smart people have been advocating Sweden's strategy. Sweden has a population of 10 million. New York alone has more people than that. It's as if population size, distribution and density aren't even a consideration, let alone local practices.
    - logicchains 6y ago
      It was also the strategy of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Utah, and they seem to be doing a lot better in terms of both GDP hit and caseload than places like California and New York with heavy lockdowns.
      - vkou 6y ago
        Iowa has a projected 9.5% GDP hit. New York has a projected ~14% GDP hit, and due to its density and reliance on elevators and public transit, will of course have a higher case load, and require harsher measures to control the spread. Half of the population of Iowa can fit in the 22 square miles of Manhattan. Oh, and infection rates in Iowa are climbing, whereas infection rates in New York peaked five months ago... And they are currently neck-and-neck in per-capita cases. So, how did a mostly rural state get a case rate that's as bad as a state that packs half of its population into a single sardine-can of a city? Is their strategy actually working, if they are getting the same outcome, despite having a much easier set of starting conditions to deal with? Meanwhile, in Canada, BC is projected to take a ~6% GDP hit... While having 1/10th the per-capita case load of Iowa, and higher population densities.

jessaustin 6y ago

Herd immunity isn't possible when antibodies are as transient as those seen for COVID-19. Only a massive public push with an actually effective vaccine will control this pandemic.

anoncake 6y ago
There have been what, three cases of people being infected twice? And they barely got sick?
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- kjaftaedi 6y ago
  The antibodies from infected people are being shown to last somewhere on an average of 3 months. Kinda hard to be immune if you have nothing to protect you. How sick you get from the disease is irrelevant in this context.
  - anonuser123456 6y ago
    Your understanding of the immune system is not quite correct. Just because you can't detect antibodies doesn't mean you lack immunity. B-cells can stop producing antibodies and reactivate production in response to an antigen. T-cell memory appears to be quite robust for coronaviruses (and this one in particular) To establish a lack of durable antibody response, challenge trials would need to be done, where the host is challenged by the virus (or something that looks like the virus like it's spike protein). These trials have not been run.
    - kuhewa 6y ago
      We can only guess without data specific to SARS-COV-2, but for seasonal coronaviruses, antibodies disappear after ~6 months and reinfection with the same strain can occur after 1 year.
  - 6y ago

kjaftaedi 6y ago

Even most 'high spread' countries have less than 10% of the population that have contracted the virus. To get to herd immunity levels, millions of people would likely die.

djsumdog 6y ago
Are you talking about antibodies? There are papers on T-cell immunity and clicks who've tested staff a month apart with no increase in antibody positive tests. It's probably WELL over 10%. There are more ways our immune system can develop memory than just antibodies and a number of studies are showing that.

kuhewa 6y ago

> we'll have herd immunity (which is where Sweden is at now). No, even Sweden's epidemiologists say that up to 30% of their population could be immune.[1] They tried to shoot the moon but missed. They are in a similar place to nearby countries now but got there with a much higher death toll [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-abandoned-herd-immunity-while-sweden-embraced-it-how-possible-is-it-to-achieve-herd-immunity-without-a-vaccine-2020-08-26 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-abandoned-herd-immunity...