4 ms·

Getting COVID-19 now you would know the risk of death is very low, especially if you live in a society where you would have access to adequate intensive care.

Getting COVID-19 now you would know the risk of death is very low, especially if you live in a society where you would have access to adequate intensive care. With the vaccine trial you are taking on an unknown risk which to me seems way worse. I think there are factors that drive people to join these trials though. For example if you have a loved one that has a much higher risk of severe complications if they catch the virus. Then it is in your interest to help get a vaccine ready.

Reason077 6y ago
> "With the vaccine trial you are taking on an unknown risk which to me seems way worse." There's a reason why clinical trials are done in phases. If you are one of the very first to receive a new medicine or vaccine, then yes, you are taking a risk - and are compensated accordingly. By the time it gets to phase 3 trials, you already have a pretty good idea of the safety. One possible adverse event amongst 30,000 participants doesn't seem so bad to me. Certainly it's less than the risk of developing serious illness if you are infected with SARS-CoV-2.
- FartyMcFarter 6y ago
  One adverse effect after X amount of time, hopefully this doesn't get any worse... :(
- jimmydorry 6y ago
  That would be 11,000 people with quadriplegia or worse amongst a population of 330M. And keep in mind that the people participating in this trial are already pre-screened, taking the healthiest of the potential candidates. Known side effects would typically occur at higher frequency amongst the population than found in a clinical trial. EDIT: To add to this. The cost of rolling out medicine with SAEs at this rate would cost the company / government in the order of about $4,730,000,000 (430k x 11k) [1], which is about the equivalent to the amount paid out for all other vaccine caused injuries over the last 30 years. This is likely low-balling it though, as I bet the families sueing would get more than $430k with the numbers of eyes on this. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/05/vaccine-safety-program/589354/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/05/vaccine-s...
  - Reason077 6y ago
    My comment was in regard to the risks of clinical trial participation, not approved vaccines. There is some precedent for the scenario you describe, however: the 2009/10 H1N1 vaccine “Pandemrix” caused permanent narcolepsy in 1 in 55,000 children it was administered to: https://www.narcolepsy.org.uk/resources/pandemrix-narcolepsy https://www.narcolepsy.org.uk/resources/pandemrix-narcolepsy
vvanders 6y ago
Risk of death may be lower but we still don't understand the long-term impact. Italy is just starting to look at this after their recovery and the initial signs are not great: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/09/08/bergamo-italy-covid-longterm/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/09/08/bergamo-ital...

Reason077 6y ago

> "With the vaccine trial you are taking on an unknown risk which to me seems way worse." There's a reason why clinical trials are done in phases. If you are one of the very first to receive a new medicine or vaccine, then yes, you are taking a risk - and are compensated accordingly. By the time it gets to phase 3 trials, you already have a pretty good idea of the safety. One possible adverse event amongst 30,000 participants doesn't seem so bad to me. Certainly it's less than the risk of developing serious illness if you are infected with SARS-CoV-2.

FartyMcFarter 6y ago
One adverse effect after X amount of time, hopefully this doesn't get any worse... :(
jimmydorry 6y ago
That would be 11,000 people with quadriplegia or worse amongst a population of 330M. And keep in mind that the people participating in this trial are already pre-screened, taking the healthiest of the potential candidates. Known side effects would typically occur at higher frequency amongst the population than found in a clinical trial. EDIT: To add to this. The cost of rolling out medicine with SAEs at this rate would cost the company / government in the order of about $4,730,000,000 (430k x 11k) [1], which is about the equivalent to the amount paid out for all other vaccine caused injuries over the last 30 years. This is likely low-balling it though, as I bet the families sueing would get more than $430k with the numbers of eyes on this. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/05/vaccine-safety-program/589354/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/05/vaccine-s...
- Reason077 6y ago
  My comment was in regard to the risks of clinical trial participation, not approved vaccines. There is some precedent for the scenario you describe, however: the 2009/10 H1N1 vaccine “Pandemrix” caused permanent narcolepsy in 1 in 55,000 children it was administered to: https://www.narcolepsy.org.uk/resources/pandemrix-narcolepsy https://www.narcolepsy.org.uk/resources/pandemrix-narcolepsy

vvanders 6y ago

Risk of death may be lower but we still don't understand the long-term impact. Italy is just starting to look at this after their recovery and the initial signs are not great: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/09/08/bergamo-italy-covid-longterm/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/09/08/bergamo-ital...