3 ms·

The article and the quote from the article you linked do not support your statement: "Arizona's ICUs quickly reached capacity". The article is dated May 11. h

by natrik 6y ago

The article and the quote from the article you linked do not support your statement: "Arizona's ICUs quickly reached capacity". The article is dated May 11. https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=sv&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/influenzasasonen-2019-20-var-en-usadvanlig-sason&usg=ALkJrhjlxz7caWLvMrg-oZ7dyGrtYn-xdQ https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&... 2822 excess mortality for Denmark in its flu season of 2017/2018. Extrapolating Denmarks population to Swedens population we would expect 5000 excess mortality for a comparable bad flu season. Current Sweden COVID related deaths are 5800. Less than 16 deaths a day in Sweden since July 2. Less than 8 deaths a day since July 19. Swedens COVID related deaths will not go above 6000. Seems to be a 0.06% mortality rate, heavily weighted towards the aged. 6000 deaths is still a lot, yes.

phobosanomaly 6y ago
So, article was May 11 when the influx started. This is June 25th. "Fewer than 200 ICU beds available in Arizona as state reports more than 60,000 coronavirus cases." https://www.abc15.com/news/state/fewer-than-200-icu-beds-available-in-arizona-as-state-reports-more-than-60-000-coronavirus-cases https://www.abc15.com/news/state/fewer-than-200-icu-beds-ava... This is July 3rd. "State health officials say the capacity of hospital intensive care units is at an all-time high of 91%. The number of people hospitalized Thursday due to a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19 was 3,013, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services. It’s the first time reaching 3,000." https://apnews.com/46a23bcf72b624dc25d7703dc269c727 https://apnews.com/46a23bcf72b624dc25d7703dc269c727 That's a pretty scary timeline. Things got real serious real quick in less than a month.
- natrik 6y ago
  Interesting, I agree the 91% of ICU capacity does seem alarming, but what aspect of that is hospitals optimizing for maximal usage of beds for financial reasons? I would want to see how much an ICU was used in previous years and how often it reached 90% capacity. Also given it was 91% on July 3rd, I'd be interested in knowing what the situation was on August 3rd and September 3rd.
  - phobosanomaly 6y ago
    That's a great question. I found this plot from Arizona Department of Public Health.'Hospital Bed Usage & Availability' sub-tab 'Number of Intensive Care Unit Available and In-use at Arizona Hospitals.' https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/... Everything is reported in percentages, so I don't know how the absolute number of beds shifted as a result of temporary increases in ICU capacity.
    - natrik 6y ago
      Great graphs on that site, 57% of ICU in beds in use by COVID patients on 7/13 to 13% on 9/7. Seems like the peak has passed, but like you said it could be due to an increase in beds provided.

by natrik 6y ago

phobosanomaly 6y ago

So, article was May 11 when the influx started. This is June 25th. "Fewer than 200 ICU beds available in Arizona as state reports more than 60,000 coronavirus cases." https://www.abc15.com/news/state/fewer-than-200-icu-beds-available-in-arizona-as-state-reports-more-than-60-000-coronavirus-cases https://www.abc15.com/news/state/fewer-than-200-icu-beds-ava... This is July 3rd. "State health officials say the capacity of hospital intensive care units is at an all-time high of 91%. The number of people hospitalized Thursday due to a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19 was 3,013, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services. It’s the first time reaching 3,000." https://apnews.com/46a23bcf72b624dc25d7703dc269c727 https://apnews.com/46a23bcf72b624dc25d7703dc269c727 That's a pretty scary timeline. Things got real serious real quick in less than a month.

natrik 6y ago
Interesting, I agree the 91% of ICU capacity does seem alarming, but what aspect of that is hospitals optimizing for maximal usage of beds for financial reasons? I would want to see how much an ICU was used in previous years and how often it reached 90% capacity. Also given it was 91% on July 3rd, I'd be interested in knowing what the situation was on August 3rd and September 3rd.
- phobosanomaly 6y ago
  That's a great question. I found this plot from Arizona Department of Public Health.'Hospital Bed Usage & Availability' sub-tab 'Number of Intensive Care Unit Available and In-use at Arizona Hospitals.' https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/... Everything is reported in percentages, so I don't know how the absolute number of beds shifted as a result of temporary increases in ICU capacity.
  - natrik 6y ago
    Great graphs on that site, 57% of ICU in beds in use by COVID patients on 7/13 to 13% on 9/7. Seems like the peak has passed, but like you said it could be due to an increase in beds provided.