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The amount of travel involved in this thing is staggering: > The cellphone tracking data showed about 10% of Sturgis attendees hailed from within South Dakota,

The amount of travel involved in this thing is staggering: > The cellphone tracking data showed about 10% of Sturgis attendees hailed from within South Dakota, with about 19% from border states and 72% from across the rest of the country, with heavy attendance from Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Washington and Wyoming. I find this aspect far more upsetting than the stupidity of the event itself. It's one thing when a bunch of locals decide to congregate in an environment they really shouldn't be, but another thing entirely when it's 400,000 people biking across the country. Ironically - or perhaps not - I saw an NPR article ~a week ago[1] indicating the infection rate in Sturgis and its county, while certainly higher than it was before the rally, wasn't as catastrophic as you'd expect. Apparently, many people who live in Sturgis left town or just tried to avoid contact with anyone that weekend. Can't find any up to date information on whether the infection rate has increased since then with more time/testing, though. [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/09/02/908874086/states-report-coronavirus-cases-linked-to-sturgis-s-d-motorcycle-rally https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...

phobosanomaly 6y ago
Arizona saw this early in the pandemic in cities along the California border like Lake Havasu. They had zero mask restrictions for a while, and cases were low. Then they opened restaurants and bars, which were flooded by thousands of Californians coming across the border every weekend and not taking any precautions and Arizona's ICUs quickly reached capacity. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-11/californians-are-crowding-arizonas-lake-havasu https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-11/californ... "While many locals are grateful for the tourism dollars amid a global downturn, some are worried that the crowds could cause a rise in coronavirus cases locally and overwhelm the city’s only hospital, which has just 16 ICU beds for its 55,000 residents."
- natrik 6y ago
  The article and the quote from the article you linked do not support your statement: "Arizona's ICUs quickly reached capacity". The article is dated May 11. https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=sv&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/influenzasasonen-2019-20-var-en-usadvanlig-sason&usg=ALkJrhjlxz7caWLvMrg-oZ7dyGrtYn-xdQ https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&... 2822 excess mortality for Denmark in its flu season of 2017/2018. Extrapolating Denmarks population to Swedens population we would expect 5000 excess mortality for a comparable bad flu season. Current Sweden COVID related deaths are 5800. Less than 16 deaths a day in Sweden since July 2. Less than 8 deaths a day since July 19. Swedens COVID related deaths will not go above 6000. Seems to be a 0.06% mortality rate, heavily weighted towards the aged. 6000 deaths is still a lot, yes.
  - phobosanomaly 6y ago
    So, article was May 11 when the influx started. This is June 25th. "Fewer than 200 ICU beds available in Arizona as state reports more than 60,000 coronavirus cases." https://www.abc15.com/news/state/fewer-than-200-icu-beds-available-in-arizona-as-state-reports-more-than-60-000-coronavirus-cases https://www.abc15.com/news/state/fewer-than-200-icu-beds-ava... This is July 3rd. "State health officials say the capacity of hospital intensive care units is at an all-time high of 91%. The number of people hospitalized Thursday due to a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19 was 3,013, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services. It’s the first time reaching 3,000." https://apnews.com/46a23bcf72b624dc25d7703dc269c727 https://apnews.com/46a23bcf72b624dc25d7703dc269c727 That's a pretty scary timeline. Things got real serious real quick in less than a month.
    - natrik 6y ago
      Interesting, I agree the 91% of ICU capacity does seem alarming, but what aspect of that is hospitals optimizing for maximal usage of beds for financial reasons? I would want to see how much an ICU was used in previous years and how often it reached 90% capacity. Also given it was 91% on July 3rd, I'd be interested in knowing what the situation was on August 3rd and September 3rd.
      - phobosanomaly 6y ago
        That's a great question. I found this plot from Arizona Department of Public Health.'Hospital Bed Usage & Availability' sub-tab 'Number of Intensive Care Unit Available and In-use at Arizona Hospitals.' https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/... Everything is reported in percentages, so I don't know how the absolute number of beds shifted as a result of temporary increases in ICU capacity.
        natrik 6y ago
        Great graphs on that site, 57% of ICU in beds in use by COVID patients on 7/13 to 13% on 9/7. Seems like the peak has passed, but like you said it could be due to an increase in beds provided.
- stateofnounion 6y ago
  That's an article about a single tiny town. Not the entire state.
  - phobosanomaly 6y ago
    Sure, it's meant as an example of how large influxes of people into an area can potentially lead to superspreading-type events, and how common these are. That tiny town is an example of thousands of such places and events throughout the country. Check out this graph from Arizona department of health 'Hospital COVID-like & Influenza-like illness Surveillance.' https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-cont... Maybe it's spurious correlation, but I'd bet money the May 25th memorial day weekend had something to do with that big spike you see ramping up May 31. Memorial day also happened to feature thousands of people from another state flooding into Lake Havasu and other, similar cities without mask restrictions, and visiting bars, restaurants, etc. Bear in mind, there were no mask restrictions in AZ before that peak. Nobody has an RCT, so we're all just whiteboarding it to some extent.
    - stateofnounion 6y ago
      > Maybe it's spurious correlation, but I'd bet money the May 25th memorial day weekend had something to do with that big spike you see ramping up May 31. Memorial day also happened to feature thousands of people from another state flooding into Lake Havasu and other, similar cities without mask restrictions, and visiting bars, restaurants, etc. Maybe this is a spurious correlation too, but I'd bet money that the May 26th George Floyd protests had something to do with that big spike you see ramping up May 31 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests.
asah 6y ago
I believe this is a replay of spring break in Florida...
danesparza 6y ago
"400,000 people biking across the country" ... and periodically stopping at gas stations, restaurants, hotels... Truly, this is upsetting. Especially when you consider how violently they shun facemasks.
- nicbou 6y ago
  I travel by motorcycle a lot, so I'm familiar with the routine. My level of interaction at home (Berlin) and on the road are not that different. I'm not sure if it would be much worse than staying home. As you say, gas stations (pay at the pump, or go in with a mask), hotels (mask on, often no interaction) and restaurants (yep, that one is bad). The rest would be spent on the bike. On the other hand, unlike at home, I don't meet anyone else, I don't go grocery shopping, and I don't use public transport. Of course I could also indulge in a bit of whataboutism about what the locals are up to, but I don't think it's a compelling argument.

phobosanomaly 6y ago

Arizona saw this early in the pandemic in cities along the California border like Lake Havasu. They had zero mask restrictions for a while, and cases were low. Then they opened restaurants and bars, which were flooded by thousands of Californians coming across the border every weekend and not taking any precautions and Arizona's ICUs quickly reached capacity. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-11/californians-are-crowding-arizonas-lake-havasu https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-11/californ... "While many locals are grateful for the tourism dollars amid a global downturn, some are worried that the crowds could cause a rise in coronavirus cases locally and overwhelm the city’s only hospital, which has just 16 ICU beds for its 55,000 residents."

natrik 6y ago
The article and the quote from the article you linked do not support your statement: "Arizona's ICUs quickly reached capacity". The article is dated May 11. https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=sv&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/influenzasasonen-2019-20-var-en-usadvanlig-sason&usg=ALkJrhjlxz7caWLvMrg-oZ7dyGrtYn-xdQ https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&... 2822 excess mortality for Denmark in its flu season of 2017/2018. Extrapolating Denmarks population to Swedens population we would expect 5000 excess mortality for a comparable bad flu season. Current Sweden COVID related deaths are 5800. Less than 16 deaths a day in Sweden since July 2. Less than 8 deaths a day since July 19. Swedens COVID related deaths will not go above 6000. Seems to be a 0.06% mortality rate, heavily weighted towards the aged. 6000 deaths is still a lot, yes.
- phobosanomaly 6y ago
  So, article was May 11 when the influx started. This is June 25th. "Fewer than 200 ICU beds available in Arizona as state reports more than 60,000 coronavirus cases." https://www.abc15.com/news/state/fewer-than-200-icu-beds-available-in-arizona-as-state-reports-more-than-60-000-coronavirus-cases https://www.abc15.com/news/state/fewer-than-200-icu-beds-ava... This is July 3rd. "State health officials say the capacity of hospital intensive care units is at an all-time high of 91%. The number of people hospitalized Thursday due to a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19 was 3,013, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services. It’s the first time reaching 3,000." https://apnews.com/46a23bcf72b624dc25d7703dc269c727 https://apnews.com/46a23bcf72b624dc25d7703dc269c727 That's a pretty scary timeline. Things got real serious real quick in less than a month.
  - natrik 6y ago
    Interesting, I agree the 91% of ICU capacity does seem alarming, but what aspect of that is hospitals optimizing for maximal usage of beds for financial reasons? I would want to see how much an ICU was used in previous years and how often it reached 90% capacity. Also given it was 91% on July 3rd, I'd be interested in knowing what the situation was on August 3rd and September 3rd.
    - phobosanomaly 6y ago
      That's a great question. I found this plot from Arizona Department of Public Health.'Hospital Bed Usage & Availability' sub-tab 'Number of Intensive Care Unit Available and In-use at Arizona Hospitals.' https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/... Everything is reported in percentages, so I don't know how the absolute number of beds shifted as a result of temporary increases in ICU capacity.
      - natrik 6y ago
        Great graphs on that site, 57% of ICU in beds in use by COVID patients on 7/13 to 13% on 9/7. Seems like the peak has passed, but like you said it could be due to an increase in beds provided.
stateofnounion 6y ago
That's an article about a single tiny town. Not the entire state.
- phobosanomaly 6y ago
  Sure, it's meant as an example of how large influxes of people into an area can potentially lead to superspreading-type events, and how common these are. That tiny town is an example of thousands of such places and events throughout the country. Check out this graph from Arizona department of health 'Hospital COVID-like & Influenza-like illness Surveillance.' https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-cont... Maybe it's spurious correlation, but I'd bet money the May 25th memorial day weekend had something to do with that big spike you see ramping up May 31. Memorial day also happened to feature thousands of people from another state flooding into Lake Havasu and other, similar cities without mask restrictions, and visiting bars, restaurants, etc. Bear in mind, there were no mask restrictions in AZ before that peak. Nobody has an RCT, so we're all just whiteboarding it to some extent.
  - stateofnounion 6y ago
    > Maybe it's spurious correlation, but I'd bet money the May 25th memorial day weekend had something to do with that big spike you see ramping up May 31. Memorial day also happened to feature thousands of people from another state flooding into Lake Havasu and other, similar cities without mask restrictions, and visiting bars, restaurants, etc. Maybe this is a spurious correlation too, but I'd bet money that the May 26th George Floyd protests had something to do with that big spike you see ramping up May 31 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests.

asah 6y ago

I believe this is a replay of spring break in Florida...

danesparza 6y ago

"400,000 people biking across the country" ... and periodically stopping at gas stations, restaurants, hotels... Truly, this is upsetting. Especially when you consider how violently they shun facemasks.

nicbou 6y ago
I travel by motorcycle a lot, so I'm familiar with the routine. My level of interaction at home (Berlin) and on the road are not that different. I'm not sure if it would be much worse than staying home. As you say, gas stations (pay at the pump, or go in with a mask), hotels (mask on, often no interaction) and restaurants (yep, that one is bad). The rest would be spent on the bike. On the other hand, unlike at home, I don't meet anyone else, I don't go grocery shopping, and I don't use public transport. Of course I could also indulge in a bit of whataboutism about what the locals are up to, but I don't think it's a compelling argument.