5 ms·

I think that protesters didn't think it through enough. Yes, Lukashenko is an awful guy, but what is the alternative? Protesters say they are pro Russia - but

I think that protesters didn't think it through enough. Yes, Lukashenko is an awful guy, but what is the alternative? Protesters say they are pro Russia - but in my opinion this is a grave mistake, and Belarus will soon find itself as a Russia-controlled state.

formerly_proven 6y ago
> Protesters say they are pro Russia - but in my opinion this is a grave mistake, and Belarus will soon find itself as a Russia-controlled state. If the protesters said they're against Russian influence, they'd be shot down hard by the Russians (with Lukashenka's assent, obviously) to preserve Belarus as a buffer zone towards the West. If they are pro-Russian / pro-status-quo as far as foreign affairs are concerned, there is at least a (slim) possibility of Putin not keeping Lukashenka in office by any means. But considering previous Russian engagements, it seems extremely unlikely Putin will allow anything other than what he'd consider "stable authoritarianism", because the foreign attachments of a democracy (even a bad one) would be too fluent and thus too risky for him.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
roywiggins 6y ago
Before all this Putin was making noises about integrating the two countries anyway: > Moscow offered Minsk economic benefits in December if it complied with a 1999 deal that envisioned a union state with a common currency, legal system and a joint defense and foreign policy. > The Russian-Belarussian economic confederacy entails the creation of a single tax code, civil code and list of foreign trade rules, in addition to unified oil, gas and electricity market regulators, by 2022, Kommersant reported Monday. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/09/16/russia-belarus-to-form-economic-confederacy-by-2022-kommersant-a67297 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/09/16/russia-belarus-to-...
vvpan 6y ago
The protest is driven by naitonalism. They symbol of the movement is the a flag that thoroughly separate Belarus from the soviet past and Russia. Anti-Russia is built into the movement.
playing_colours 6y ago
The protesters look to me as against Russian interference, propaganda, and the perspectives to become a Russian province. The protesters are not against common Russian people and culture,they are for being good neighbours. It's reasonable, that the more Russia interferes and helps Lukashenko - the more negative the attitude of Belarusian becomes.

formerly_proven 6y ago

> Protesters say they are pro Russia - but in my opinion this is a grave mistake, and Belarus will soon find itself as a Russia-controlled state. If the protesters said they're against Russian influence, they'd be shot down hard by the Russians (with Lukashenka's assent, obviously) to preserve Belarus as a buffer zone towards the West. If they are pro-Russian / pro-status-quo as far as foreign affairs are concerned, there is at least a (slim) possibility of Putin not keeping Lukashenka in office by any means. But considering previous Russian engagements, it seems extremely unlikely Putin will allow anything other than what he'd consider "stable authoritarianism", because the foreign attachments of a democracy (even a bad one) would be too fluent and thus too risky for him.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

roywiggins 6y ago

Before all this Putin was making noises about integrating the two countries anyway: > Moscow offered Minsk economic benefits in December if it complied with a 1999 deal that envisioned a union state with a common currency, legal system and a joint defense and foreign policy. > The Russian-Belarussian economic confederacy entails the creation of a single tax code, civil code and list of foreign trade rules, in addition to unified oil, gas and electricity market regulators, by 2022, Kommersant reported Monday. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/09/16/russia-belarus-to-form-economic-confederacy-by-2022-kommersant-a67297 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/09/16/russia-belarus-to-...

vvpan 6y ago

The protest is driven by naitonalism. They symbol of the movement is the a flag that thoroughly separate Belarus from the soviet past and Russia. Anti-Russia is built into the movement.

playing_colours 6y ago

The protesters look to me as against Russian interference, propaganda, and the perspectives to become a Russian province. The protesters are not against common Russian people and culture,they are for being good neighbours. It's reasonable, that the more Russia interferes and helps Lukashenko - the more negative the attitude of Belarusian becomes.