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There was a heat wave, yes, but other than that not a particularly high risk of wildfires early this weekend. The wind wasn't terrible and there wasn't a Red Fl

by xiainx 6y ago

There was a heat wave, yes, but other than that not a particularly high risk of wildfires early this weekend. The wind wasn't terrible and there wasn't a Red Flag Warning issued (that's a fire weather warning). They started their hike on a long weekend, the last long weekend of the summer over here. And late August / early September is one of the best times of year for hiking in the Sierra. The bugs have died off, temperatures remain pleasant, the thunderstorms have usually passed, and after Labor Day (the first Monday in September) the crowds die down. In the high country, wildfire risk is usually low as well, so smoke is really the only thing to worry about. This fire grew remarkably fast, from 0 to 100,000 acres in about 36 hours, and happened to be rather close to the location they chose for their trip. Sure, they should have known that smoke from wildfires was a risk during this trip, but it's pretty reasonable to not expect this kind of impact going into your trip. In general, this time of year is a very good time to head into the mountains.

ihunter2839 6y ago
When you say "there was a heat wave" you are referring to a weather pattern that has shattered temp records around the state. After the last heat wave and following lightnight storms which triggered fires across the state, I don't know how folks could assess that a backpacking trip to an isolated mountain area is a good idea at this point in time. Saying "September is usually a great time" is a pretty moot point. It's usually not well above 100 across the entire state in September. Edited to say - I am very glad they made it out safely. If you are considering backpacking anywhere in California this summer, please remember that we are having fires in historically unprecedented locations.
- dredmorbius 6y ago
  Temperatures fall with elevation, about 3.5 °F (1.2°C) peer 1,000 ft of gain. Much of this trip was at 8,000 ft. Temperatures would have been about 28°F (9.6°C) lower than at sea level. From a starting base of 100°F (37.7°C), the hikers would have seen 72°F (22.2°C) temperatures --- quite comfortable. Dry air also means sweat evaporates quickly, cooling effectively. This effect alone is a large element of the High Sierra's appeal during summertime. https://treelinebackpacker.com/2013/05/06/calculate-temperature-change-with-elevation/ https://treelinebackpacker.com/2013/05/06/calculate-temperat...
  - wolf550e 6y ago
    Your arithmetic / unit conversion doesn't work. Change of 3.5°F is same as change of 1.94°C, not 1.2°C. Change of 28°F is 15.5°C. 37.7 - 22.2 != 9.6. (Water freezing to boiling is 100 degrees in C and 180 degrees in F).
    - dredmorbius 6y ago
      Point. I'd taken values from the linked source, which appears to be in error. The Celsius values don't correspond to F2C conversion, as you note. Though my final at-elevation result remains unchanged: 72°F / 22.2°C, a 15.5 degC drop. https://treelinebackpacker.com/2013/05/06/calculate-temperature-change-with-elevation/ https://treelinebackpacker.com/2013/05/06/calculate-temperat...
- njarboe 6y ago
  Forest fire hazard is always present at the end of the summer going into the fall in California until the first big rains. It is a Mediterranean climate and it does not rain at all from May till Oct/Nov (with much variation). They had this trip planned, would spend most of it in the high country where there are few trees and low fire hazard. People who do 8 day backpacking trips are going to have more risk tolerance than most people, and now they have a story they can blog about that makes it to the front of Hacker News. Seems like a win to me.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- xiainx 6y ago
  You're right that we just experienced a heat wave that broke several daily and monthly temperature records. But this was a high pressure ridging event without much accompanying wind or thunderstorm activity. So the wildfire risk wasn't forecasted to be notably extreme, until today when the red flag warning sets in. But before you pick on that, the red flag warning is due to offshore winds, which would blow any fire and smoke away from the area these folks were hiking. The early August heatwave, in contrast, was accompanied by a decaying tropical storm had flung upper-level instability over California, causing the lightning storms you mentioned. On paper, the early August heat wave was much more dangerous. This was just a classic late-season heatwave, which usually makes for very enjoyable conditions in the high country. On top of that, the area where these folks were planning to hike is in alpine terrain that's relatively light in tree and vegetation cover. The likelihood of the fire consuming them was extremely low. The main hazard would be smoke from a fire nearby, which is what happened. Additionally, wilderness permits for this area are very competitive, so they had to plan this trip 6 months ago and had no ability to change the time or location of the trip. If it's your goal to assume as little risk as possible, you're right that you probably shouldn't go backpacking (or engage in any other outdoor pursuit). You probably also shouldn't be living in California. But for most people, it's a balancing act of risk versus reward, and there's not really any evidence to suggest that these folks made a foolish or dangerous decision. Remember, hindsight is always 20/20 and it's very easy to criticize the decisions of others from the comfort of your armchair. If you'd like to do some more of that, there are many hundreds of thousands of Californians (myself included) who also headed up into the Sierra this weekend.
  - dvt 6y ago
    > So the wildfire risk wasn't forecasted to be notably extreme, until today when the red flag warning sets in. This is absolutely untrue. Sure, the red flag warning set in today, but wildfire risk was considered to be at very high levels for (quite literally) weeks. See Tweets from way before the Creek Fire: [1][2][3] Just mild research would indicate that hiking (for days) deep in the wilderness would be a bad idea. It's just profoundly irresponsible. And, as someone that's done NorCal during this time previously, it's not comparable to prior years (except iirc maybe like 3 years ago when it was also a particularly hot summer). > there are many hundreds of thousands of Californians (myself included) who also headed up into the Sierra this weekend. There's a difference between doing some light camping or a day trip to the Sierras as opposed to hiking for several days deep in the wilderness during a heatwave. > ...there's not really any evidence to suggest that these folks made a foolish or dangerous decision This is the kind of shit that gets people killed. It was most definitely foolish and dangerous. Sometimes bad things happen to extremely experienced adventurers: flash floods, avalanches, etc. This was not that. It was a bunch of Instagrammers that wanted to "get away" without having any kind of respect for mother nature or what she can throw at you. [1] https://twitter.com/R5_Fire_News/status/1302311140815298560/photo/1 https://twitter.com/R5_Fire_News/status/1302311140815298560/... [2] https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1301932248313200640 https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1301932248313200640 [3] https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1301255674655956992/photo/1 https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1301255674655956992...

by xiainx 6y ago

ihunter2839 6y ago

When you say "there was a heat wave" you are referring to a weather pattern that has shattered temp records around the state. After the last heat wave and following lightnight storms which triggered fires across the state, I don't know how folks could assess that a backpacking trip to an isolated mountain area is a good idea at this point in time. Saying "September is usually a great time" is a pretty moot point. It's usually not well above 100 across the entire state in September. Edited to say - I am very glad they made it out safely. If you are considering backpacking anywhere in California this summer, please remember that we are having fires in historically unprecedented locations.

dredmorbius 6y ago
Temperatures fall with elevation, about 3.5 °F (1.2°C) peer 1,000 ft of gain. Much of this trip was at 8,000 ft. Temperatures would have been about 28°F (9.6°C) lower than at sea level. From a starting base of 100°F (37.7°C), the hikers would have seen 72°F (22.2°C) temperatures --- quite comfortable. Dry air also means sweat evaporates quickly, cooling effectively. This effect alone is a large element of the High Sierra's appeal during summertime. https://treelinebackpacker.com/2013/05/06/calculate-temperature-change-with-elevation/ https://treelinebackpacker.com/2013/05/06/calculate-temperat...
- wolf550e 6y ago
  Your arithmetic / unit conversion doesn't work. Change of 3.5°F is same as change of 1.94°C, not 1.2°C. Change of 28°F is 15.5°C. 37.7 - 22.2 != 9.6. (Water freezing to boiling is 100 degrees in C and 180 degrees in F).
  - dredmorbius 6y ago
    Point. I'd taken values from the linked source, which appears to be in error. The Celsius values don't correspond to F2C conversion, as you note. Though my final at-elevation result remains unchanged: 72°F / 22.2°C, a 15.5 degC drop. https://treelinebackpacker.com/2013/05/06/calculate-temperature-change-with-elevation/ https://treelinebackpacker.com/2013/05/06/calculate-temperat...
njarboe 6y ago
Forest fire hazard is always present at the end of the summer going into the fall in California until the first big rains. It is a Mediterranean climate and it does not rain at all from May till Oct/Nov (with much variation). They had this trip planned, would spend most of it in the high country where there are few trees and low fire hazard. People who do 8 day backpacking trips are going to have more risk tolerance than most people, and now they have a story they can blog about that makes it to the front of Hacker News. Seems like a win to me.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
xiainx 6y ago
You're right that we just experienced a heat wave that broke several daily and monthly temperature records. But this was a high pressure ridging event without much accompanying wind or thunderstorm activity. So the wildfire risk wasn't forecasted to be notably extreme, until today when the red flag warning sets in. But before you pick on that, the red flag warning is due to offshore winds, which would blow any fire and smoke away from the area these folks were hiking. The early August heatwave, in contrast, was accompanied by a decaying tropical storm had flung upper-level instability over California, causing the lightning storms you mentioned. On paper, the early August heat wave was much more dangerous. This was just a classic late-season heatwave, which usually makes for very enjoyable conditions in the high country. On top of that, the area where these folks were planning to hike is in alpine terrain that's relatively light in tree and vegetation cover. The likelihood of the fire consuming them was extremely low. The main hazard would be smoke from a fire nearby, which is what happened. Additionally, wilderness permits for this area are very competitive, so they had to plan this trip 6 months ago and had no ability to change the time or location of the trip. If it's your goal to assume as little risk as possible, you're right that you probably shouldn't go backpacking (or engage in any other outdoor pursuit). You probably also shouldn't be living in California. But for most people, it's a balancing act of risk versus reward, and there's not really any evidence to suggest that these folks made a foolish or dangerous decision. Remember, hindsight is always 20/20 and it's very easy to criticize the decisions of others from the comfort of your armchair. If you'd like to do some more of that, there are many hundreds of thousands of Californians (myself included) who also headed up into the Sierra this weekend.
- dvt 6y ago
  > So the wildfire risk wasn't forecasted to be notably extreme, until today when the red flag warning sets in. This is absolutely untrue. Sure, the red flag warning set in today, but wildfire risk was considered to be at very high levels for (quite literally) weeks. See Tweets from way before the Creek Fire: [1][2][3] Just mild research would indicate that hiking (for days) deep in the wilderness would be a bad idea. It's just profoundly irresponsible. And, as someone that's done NorCal during this time previously, it's not comparable to prior years (except iirc maybe like 3 years ago when it was also a particularly hot summer). > there are many hundreds of thousands of Californians (myself included) who also headed up into the Sierra this weekend. There's a difference between doing some light camping or a day trip to the Sierras as opposed to hiking for several days deep in the wilderness during a heatwave. > ...there's not really any evidence to suggest that these folks made a foolish or dangerous decision This is the kind of shit that gets people killed. It was most definitely foolish and dangerous. Sometimes bad things happen to extremely experienced adventurers: flash floods, avalanches, etc. This was not that. It was a bunch of Instagrammers that wanted to "get away" without having any kind of respect for mother nature or what she can throw at you. [1] https://twitter.com/R5_Fire_News/status/1302311140815298560/photo/1 https://twitter.com/R5_Fire_News/status/1302311140815298560/... [2] https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1301932248313200640 https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1301932248313200640 [3] https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1301255674655956992/photo/1 https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1301255674655956992...