6 ms·

I am reminded of Elon Musk's tweet [1] a mere three months ago, when the stock rose from an already hard to believe [2] $80 to an incredible $140 (adjusted for

I am reminded of Elon Musk's tweet [1] a mere three months ago, when the stock rose from an already hard to believe [2] $80 to an incredible $140 (adjusted for split): Tesla stock price is too high imo And yet people still piled onto this stock. As if they knew something Musk didn't. [1] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184 [2] Hard to believe given actual revenues and projected revenue growth

tomerico 6y ago
That tweet was actually intended to hide the message of the split. You can see that it was sent on 5/1 at 8:11. The 5:1 split was announced on 8/11.
- blake88 6y ago
  That's some advanced numerology right here... Is Elon Musk really sending hidden messages using tweet times? Has he done it before?
  - antsar 6y ago
    > advanced numerology Or just, you know, good old search engine optimization. I'd assume this is widely done in marketing/PR.
    - boomboomsubban 6y ago
      It's hard to believe any marketing team has control over Musk's twitter, given things like his bragging about overthrowing the Bolivia government.
      - SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
        "Ok, today as a viral marketing plan we're going to get our boss in trouble with the SEC."
- uzakov 6y ago
  r/wsb
0goel0 6y ago
Yup. He said the stock price is too high, not the valuation/cap. It was about the stock split.
- Robotbeat 6y ago
  I don’t think so. It was in the middle of one of Elon’s manic episodes where he was saying a bunch of things that he wanted to say even if they were self-damaging. Which isn’t to say Tesla couldn’t eventually be worth whatever the market says (Tesla has managed to dodge some major problems like cheap oil, end of EV credits, a federal govt opposed to climate action, and COVID-19 and keep expanding... so the market is probably pricing in what that says about Tesla’s odds that they’re able to overcome such hurdles), but it probably is an accurate evaluation of what Musk thought at the time. Personally, I don’t invest in individual stocks as it’s too much of a gamble and it also can lead to extra paperwork or compromise of my professional standing. I suppose the market is seeing Tesla as an example of real growth in an overall market of decline in new automobile purchases, so maybe that’s it. The reach for yield. Still, seems crazy.
extremeMath 6y ago
Yeah I'm not really sure what people are expecting out of Tesla. I do think the current investors are low information investors who don't understand what stocks are or how automotive works. I think we are seeing the beginning of hyperinflation.
- ericmay 6y ago
  I think some of those investors exist for sure, but what do you mean by "understand what stocks are"? I'd venture to say that you'd be hard pressed to apply a definition that doesn't exclude most people. > how automotive works This is the crux of the matter here. Many believe that Tesla is a car company and should be treated as such. Investors (I do own Tesla but not a significant portion of my portfolio) such as myself view it as a growing energy company. The cars are just batteries with wheels. I'm looking at products like Autobidder [1] in assessing potential long-term growth. They can create software, unlike Duke Energy, AEP, Toyota, GM, etc. which means they can do things like deploy algorithms, solar roof panels, power walls, etc. to better allocate energy at better prices. Obviously that's speculation, but that's just what investing is. I would also say I disagree that we are beginning to see hyperinflation. We're actually facing deflationary pressure due to demand for the dollar, but we do see run-ups in stock prices because investors are chasing yield, and without access to alternatives (for many like myself) like venture capital or investing in private companies (SpaceX) there isn't much left to do with your money except buy real estate and rent it out (risky and work) or just invest in equities. I'd also add that although the US has been printing money, most other countries, especially western democracies, have faced serious problems as well and have also been printing money, and that interest on borrowed amounts isn't that much, though we should really be looking at more fiscally responsible behaviors. Good luck with that though. Democrats will spend money on social programs (even when it doesn't make sense) and Republicans will find ways to cut taxes and kick that can down the road too. [1] https://www.tesla.com/support/autobidder https://www.tesla.com/support/autobidder
  - ckastner 6y ago
    > This is the crux of the matter here. Many believe that Tesla is a car company and should be treated as such. Investors [...] such as myself view it as a growing energy company. I think it would be fairer to characterize Tesla as a growning energy startup. I can see the potential, but potential has to be realized, and Tesla is not the only startup working with solar and batteries. In any case, the $450bn valuation dwarfs not just every other car maker, but also every other energy company. $450bn is the combined market value of Toyota, VW, and Exxon.
thrav 6y ago
That tweet was likely intentional foreshadowing of the coming split. He posted it at 8:11 and they announced the split on 8/11. I have no basis for this suggestion, but I’ve actually been thinking lately that SoftBank and Musk coordinated the TSLA infinity squeeze that we’ve all been watching. It’s a great way to make a massive investment in TSLA, at the price you were willing to pay anyway, while sending the stock through the roof so the company can take the needed liquidity from the market. TSLA added one of SoftBank’s largest financiers to the board in late April.
- ckastner 6y ago
  I find the SoftBank action more credible (even convincing, given the other submissions in which it was discussed) than the split theory. Because there is no rational way that a company with $27bn revenue rises from ~$130bn to ~$450bn in market cap in three months. I've posted in another thread how VW builds 11 million cars each year, that's 1 out of 8 cars globally, at immense profit, and is valued at €80bn. In any case, if the cause for the tweet was solely that the stock price was too high, well -- it was $700 back then, so I guess we'll see another split real soon now again.
  - thrav 6y ago
    Have you read about how your example, VW, saw a massive increase in market cap In a similar way in the past? It’s a way that was easily repeatable with enough capital and some ability to influence the public with things like memes, controversy, and celebrities. https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSTRE49R3I920081028 https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSTRE49R3I920081028
    - ckastner 6y ago
      I remember that day well (it was job-relevant to me when it happened). I'm still amazed how Porsche managed to pull that one off! That's a good example, thank you for sharing it again!
nickik 6y ago
Elon has done this often. He repeatably says 'Currently we don't deserve this valuation, but I think in the future we will. People have to believe that we can execute'. Well guess what, people invest in the future not in the present. Based on Elon own predictions he expects a 40-50% growth rate with more then industry leading margins. If you believe that is true, and Elon does, the value of the stock should clearly be higher. And this has been his line on growth for years now. Elon makes really little sense with these, its as if tweets don't represent a well considered opinion with context. I'm not arguing that Elon predictions are wrong or not, but based on his own prediction the stock is not actually overvalued.

tomerico 6y ago

That tweet was actually intended to hide the message of the split. You can see that it was sent on 5/1 at 8:11. The 5:1 split was announced on 8/11.

blake88 6y ago
That's some advanced numerology right here... Is Elon Musk really sending hidden messages using tweet times? Has he done it before?
- antsar 6y ago
  > advanced numerology Or just, you know, good old search engine optimization. I'd assume this is widely done in marketing/PR.
  - boomboomsubban 6y ago
    It's hard to believe any marketing team has control over Musk's twitter, given things like his bragging about overthrowing the Bolivia government.
    - SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
      "Ok, today as a viral marketing plan we're going to get our boss in trouble with the SEC."
uzakov 6y ago
r/wsb

0goel0 6y ago

Yup. He said the stock price is too high, not the valuation/cap. It was about the stock split.

Robotbeat 6y ago
I don’t think so. It was in the middle of one of Elon’s manic episodes where he was saying a bunch of things that he wanted to say even if they were self-damaging. Which isn’t to say Tesla couldn’t eventually be worth whatever the market says (Tesla has managed to dodge some major problems like cheap oil, end of EV credits, a federal govt opposed to climate action, and COVID-19 and keep expanding... so the market is probably pricing in what that says about Tesla’s odds that they’re able to overcome such hurdles), but it probably is an accurate evaluation of what Musk thought at the time. Personally, I don’t invest in individual stocks as it’s too much of a gamble and it also can lead to extra paperwork or compromise of my professional standing. I suppose the market is seeing Tesla as an example of real growth in an overall market of decline in new automobile purchases, so maybe that’s it. The reach for yield. Still, seems crazy.

extremeMath 6y ago

Yeah I'm not really sure what people are expecting out of Tesla. I do think the current investors are low information investors who don't understand what stocks are or how automotive works. I think we are seeing the beginning of hyperinflation.

ericmay 6y ago
I think some of those investors exist for sure, but what do you mean by "understand what stocks are"? I'd venture to say that you'd be hard pressed to apply a definition that doesn't exclude most people. > how automotive works This is the crux of the matter here. Many believe that Tesla is a car company and should be treated as such. Investors (I do own Tesla but not a significant portion of my portfolio) such as myself view it as a growing energy company. The cars are just batteries with wheels. I'm looking at products like Autobidder [1] in assessing potential long-term growth. They can create software, unlike Duke Energy, AEP, Toyota, GM, etc. which means they can do things like deploy algorithms, solar roof panels, power walls, etc. to better allocate energy at better prices. Obviously that's speculation, but that's just what investing is. I would also say I disagree that we are beginning to see hyperinflation. We're actually facing deflationary pressure due to demand for the dollar, but we do see run-ups in stock prices because investors are chasing yield, and without access to alternatives (for many like myself) like venture capital or investing in private companies (SpaceX) there isn't much left to do with your money except buy real estate and rent it out (risky and work) or just invest in equities. I'd also add that although the US has been printing money, most other countries, especially western democracies, have faced serious problems as well and have also been printing money, and that interest on borrowed amounts isn't that much, though we should really be looking at more fiscally responsible behaviors. Good luck with that though. Democrats will spend money on social programs (even when it doesn't make sense) and Republicans will find ways to cut taxes and kick that can down the road too. [1] https://www.tesla.com/support/autobidder https://www.tesla.com/support/autobidder
- ckastner 6y ago
  > This is the crux of the matter here. Many believe that Tesla is a car company and should be treated as such. Investors [...] such as myself view it as a growing energy company. I think it would be fairer to characterize Tesla as a growning energy startup. I can see the potential, but potential has to be realized, and Tesla is not the only startup working with solar and batteries. In any case, the $450bn valuation dwarfs not just every other car maker, but also every other energy company. $450bn is the combined market value of Toyota, VW, and Exxon.

thrav 6y ago

That tweet was likely intentional foreshadowing of the coming split. He posted it at 8:11 and they announced the split on 8/11. I have no basis for this suggestion, but I’ve actually been thinking lately that SoftBank and Musk coordinated the TSLA infinity squeeze that we’ve all been watching. It’s a great way to make a massive investment in TSLA, at the price you were willing to pay anyway, while sending the stock through the roof so the company can take the needed liquidity from the market. TSLA added one of SoftBank’s largest financiers to the board in late April.

ckastner 6y ago
I find the SoftBank action more credible (even convincing, given the other submissions in which it was discussed) than the split theory. Because there is no rational way that a company with $27bn revenue rises from ~$130bn to ~$450bn in market cap in three months. I've posted in another thread how VW builds 11 million cars each year, that's 1 out of 8 cars globally, at immense profit, and is valued at €80bn. In any case, if the cause for the tweet was solely that the stock price was too high, well -- it was $700 back then, so I guess we'll see another split real soon now again.
- thrav 6y ago
  Have you read about how your example, VW, saw a massive increase in market cap In a similar way in the past? It’s a way that was easily repeatable with enough capital and some ability to influence the public with things like memes, controversy, and celebrities. https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSTRE49R3I920081028 https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSTRE49R3I920081028
  - ckastner 6y ago
    I remember that day well (it was job-relevant to me when it happened). I'm still amazed how Porsche managed to pull that one off! That's a good example, thank you for sharing it again!

nickik 6y ago

Elon has done this often. He repeatably says 'Currently we don't deserve this valuation, but I think in the future we will. People have to believe that we can execute'. Well guess what, people invest in the future not in the present. Based on Elon own predictions he expects a 40-50% growth rate with more then industry leading margins. If you believe that is true, and Elon does, the value of the stock should clearly be higher. And this has been his line on growth for years now. Elon makes really little sense with these, its as if tweets don't represent a well considered opinion with context. I'm not arguing that Elon predictions are wrong or not, but based on his own prediction the stock is not actually overvalued.