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That was the reason why it fell? In that case looks liem they made the right decision not to include it. Any stock that moves 20% on this kind of decision is fu

That was the reason why it fell? In that case looks liem they made the right decision not to include it. Any stock that moves 20% on this kind of decision is fundamentally flawed.

sokoloff 6y ago
TSLA shares fell back to levels not seen since August 17th, 3 entire weeks ago. In the meantime, the company confirmed that it sold $5Billion of additional shares into the market last week. It's not just the S&P news, IMO. Disclaimer: I am short $TSLA since about 2 weeks ago, because I can't wrap my head around the valuation and near parabolic move short-term. I do think that they are more valuable than some other large automakers, but probably not more than all of them put together. :)
- the-dude 6y ago
  And Softbank.
  - omgwtfbyobbq 6y ago
    That's what I was thinking too. With all the short interest, they're an attractive target to push upwards.
- MuffinFlavored 6y ago
  > Disclaimer: I am short $TSLA since about 2 weeks ago How/where did you get shares to short? At what margin interest rate are you having to pay?
  - sokoloff 6y ago
    Etrade. It isn't even listed as a "hard to borrow" security (just confirmed that by entering a proto-order and confirming another security that is hard-to-borrow does give a warning at that point in the flow). Per that, I'd imagine any brokerage would allow you to short them.
  - arthurcolle 6y ago
    he's probably using puts
    - sokoloff 6y ago
      No. I'm outright shorting the shares. Implied volatility is so high now as to make buying options fairly unattractive for medium and long-term bets.
      - MuffinFlavored 6y ago
        Say you want to short $10,000 worth of TSLA shares, what kind of margin interest rate are you paying? Is it 8%/yr?
        sokoloff 6y ago
        I've held the shares short for short enough time that I haven't gotten tagged with any charges yet to give you actuals. The interest is super-low in any case, so when you're shorting shares that have moved parabolically, you're probably not worried about whether the borrow is 1% or 4% per year (or at least I'm not).
      - arthurcolle 6y ago
        You could be using spreads to hedge out the vega risk, not a huge deal.
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  > I do think that they are more valuable than some other large automakers, but probably not more than all of them put together. :) The Enterprise Value of Tesla ($398B) is only slightly more than the Enterprise Value of Toyota ($337B). VW's is $224B. They have a valuation larger than any other automaker, but not even close to that of all put together. EV = market cap + debt - free cash Not including debt in a company's valuation is like saying that the valuation of my house is only $100K if I still have a $400K mortgage on my $500K house.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- wp381640 6y ago
  I almost pulled a short a few weeks ago but couldn't bite the bullet because the market is so damn irrational I wouldn't be surprised if TSLA was meme'd up to a trillion Tend to stay away from anything that is "my cousins friend at work asked how to buy stocks because he wants to buy x"
  - vsareto 6y ago
    >Tend to stay away from anything that is "my cousins friend at work asked how to buy stocks because he wants to buy x" Oh, so basically the entire stock market during the pandemic?
    - wp381640 6y ago
      Had tons of upside on mid-cap techs which tend to go under the radar and the usual apple, amzon, google which for some reason aren't sexy But, ye - things are crazy at the moment with retail investors
- WhompingWindows 6y ago
  I think they're a scientifically-based "story"/"brand" stock based on climate science and reticence to change from other car makers...but, tangentially, if we have a recent influx of wealthy liberal people who believe climate is a huge threat, doesn't it make sense that the objectively best BEV maker is going to get a ton of interest from these investors who haven't lost income and wealth due to COVID and are looking for future-proof assets? Maybe $TSLA and the market at large wouldn't be doing so well if rich investors could still spend money on vacations, luxury events, concerts, travel, etc?
  - extremeMath 6y ago
    I feel so conflicted when I read posts that consider Tesla "the best". I did benchmarking on all automotive interiors, exteriors, and infotainment systems, and Tesla was Kia level. The interiors and exteriors were actually bad. The infotainment system was buggy and cheap, but it was feature rich and fast. If it wasn't Tesla, people would hate it for not having buttons. The reliability is notoriously bad too. I don't see any genuine argument for "Best", they might have the hardest, lowest paid workers, or the only car you can natively play a 30 year old video game, but when comparing Tesla to Nissan or GM EVs, I don't see why you'd get a Tesla. It's more expensive and you get less.
    - sokoloff 6y ago
      I daily drive (well, pre-COVID anyway) a Nissan LEAF. The interior on the LEAF (a $22K car to me) seemed at least as nice as the 3-5x as expensive Model S that colleagues own. However, if they were the same price, I'd much, much rather have the Tesla. Nissan's battery tech [and capacity] is way worse than Tesla's.
    - andreilys 6y ago
      Signaling effect of owning a Tesla is much higher than a Nissan or GM EV.
    - dingaling 6y ago
      >Tesla was Kia level Kia offer a seven-year warranty, even on the battery. And are joint first in the 2020 JD Powers survey. Tesla are nowhere near that level. Your benchmarking is flawed.
qaq 6y ago
And what would be a reasonable drop?
- xirbeosbwo1234 6y ago
  Probably about 95% based on fundamentals.
  - doopy-loopy2 6y ago
    haha
  - bumby 6y ago
    I know you may have meant that tongue-in-cheek, but do you think they should fundamentally be valued as a traditional manufacturer or as a tech stock?
    - sroussey 6y ago
      Why tongue-in-cheek?
      - bumby 6y ago
        Maybe it wasn’t meant that way, but it can certainly be read if one considers the “95%” as an exaggeration. That’s why I was trying to clarify if it was meant to be out of line with “cyclical manufacturing” or with “tech”
        sroussey 6y ago
        The idea that Tesla should have a “tech” multiple, which generally means 80% margins and high growth rates, is kinda scary, since they don’t have either. 80-95% drop would be reasonable if and when it loses its “story”. But it can use its valuation to bring in capital to try and make the business into something else.
    - kingnothing 6y ago
justjonathan 6y ago
The reason it fell?https://xkcd.com/904/ https://xkcd.com/904/
vsareto 6y ago
Idk how anyone can look at Tesla and see that it's "fundamentally" flawed.
gumby 6y ago
> Any stock that moves 20% on this kind of decision is fundamentally flawed. When a stock join an index, all the index funds (which simply passively follow the index) have to purchase a proportionate amount of that Stock (and got rid of whatever stock was ejected). Sonic you think stock X will go into an index you know that there will soon be a brief surge in demand for shares of X. Why now own some so that when that surge happens you’ll make a quick profit? Oops, didn’t join, so now you probably want to get rid of thats tick you just held to flip. I don’t think Tesla is a good investment but this particular and unusual case is not why.
LatteLazy 6y ago
Wouldn't any stock that was removed from the index fall 20% as indexers sold it? This is the power of Indexes, not the weakness of Tesla isn't it? (I am actually glad it didn't make it in as I think it's too volatile and also I want to buy some :) )

That was the reason why it fell? In that case looks liem they made the right decision not to include it. Any stock that moves 20% on this kind of decision is fundamentally flawed.

sokoloff 6y ago

TSLA shares fell back to levels not seen since August 17th, 3 entire weeks ago. In the meantime, the company confirmed that it sold $5Billion of additional shares into the market last week. It's not just the S&P news, IMO. Disclaimer: I am short $TSLA since about 2 weeks ago, because I can't wrap my head around the valuation and near parabolic move short-term. I do think that they are more valuable than some other large automakers, but probably not more than all of them put together. :)

the-dude 6y ago
And Softbank.
- omgwtfbyobbq 6y ago
  That's what I was thinking too. With all the short interest, they're an attractive target to push upwards.
MuffinFlavored 6y ago
> Disclaimer: I am short $TSLA since about 2 weeks ago How/where did you get shares to short? At what margin interest rate are you having to pay?
- sokoloff 6y ago
  Etrade. It isn't even listed as a "hard to borrow" security (just confirmed that by entering a proto-order and confirming another security that is hard-to-borrow does give a warning at that point in the flow). Per that, I'd imagine any brokerage would allow you to short them.
- arthurcolle 6y ago
  he's probably using puts
  - sokoloff 6y ago
    No. I'm outright shorting the shares. Implied volatility is so high now as to make buying options fairly unattractive for medium and long-term bets.
    - MuffinFlavored 6y ago
      Say you want to short $10,000 worth of TSLA shares, what kind of margin interest rate are you paying? Is it 8%/yr?
      - sokoloff 6y ago
        I've held the shares short for short enough time that I haven't gotten tagged with any charges yet to give you actuals. The interest is super-low in any case, so when you're shorting shares that have moved parabolically, you're probably not worried about whether the borrow is 1% or 4% per year (or at least I'm not).
    - arthurcolle 6y ago
      You could be using spreads to hedge out the vega risk, not a huge deal.
bryanlarsen 6y ago
> I do think that they are more valuable than some other large automakers, but probably not more than all of them put together. :) The Enterprise Value of Tesla ($398B) is only slightly more than the Enterprise Value of Toyota ($337B). VW's is $224B. They have a valuation larger than any other automaker, but not even close to that of all put together. EV = market cap + debt - free cash Not including debt in a company's valuation is like saying that the valuation of my house is only $100K if I still have a $400K mortgage on my $500K house.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
wp381640 6y ago
I almost pulled a short a few weeks ago but couldn't bite the bullet because the market is so damn irrational I wouldn't be surprised if TSLA was meme'd up to a trillion Tend to stay away from anything that is "my cousins friend at work asked how to buy stocks because he wants to buy x"
- vsareto 6y ago
  >Tend to stay away from anything that is "my cousins friend at work asked how to buy stocks because he wants to buy x" Oh, so basically the entire stock market during the pandemic?
  - wp381640 6y ago
    Had tons of upside on mid-cap techs which tend to go under the radar and the usual apple, amzon, google which for some reason aren't sexy But, ye - things are crazy at the moment with retail investors
WhompingWindows 6y ago
I think they're a scientifically-based "story"/"brand" stock based on climate science and reticence to change from other car makers...but, tangentially, if we have a recent influx of wealthy liberal people who believe climate is a huge threat, doesn't it make sense that the objectively best BEV maker is going to get a ton of interest from these investors who haven't lost income and wealth due to COVID and are looking for future-proof assets? Maybe $TSLA and the market at large wouldn't be doing so well if rich investors could still spend money on vacations, luxury events, concerts, travel, etc?
- extremeMath 6y ago
  I feel so conflicted when I read posts that consider Tesla "the best". I did benchmarking on all automotive interiors, exteriors, and infotainment systems, and Tesla was Kia level. The interiors and exteriors were actually bad. The infotainment system was buggy and cheap, but it was feature rich and fast. If it wasn't Tesla, people would hate it for not having buttons. The reliability is notoriously bad too. I don't see any genuine argument for "Best", they might have the hardest, lowest paid workers, or the only car you can natively play a 30 year old video game, but when comparing Tesla to Nissan or GM EVs, I don't see why you'd get a Tesla. It's more expensive and you get less.
  - sokoloff 6y ago
    I daily drive (well, pre-COVID anyway) a Nissan LEAF. The interior on the LEAF (a $22K car to me) seemed at least as nice as the 3-5x as expensive Model S that colleagues own. However, if they were the same price, I'd much, much rather have the Tesla. Nissan's battery tech [and capacity] is way worse than Tesla's.
  - andreilys 6y ago
    Signaling effect of owning a Tesla is much higher than a Nissan or GM EV.
  - dingaling 6y ago
    >Tesla was Kia level Kia offer a seven-year warranty, even on the battery. And are joint first in the 2020 JD Powers survey. Tesla are nowhere near that level. Your benchmarking is flawed.

qaq 6y ago

And what would be a reasonable drop?

xirbeosbwo1234 6y ago
Probably about 95% based on fundamentals.
- doopy-loopy2 6y ago
  haha
- bumby 6y ago
  I know you may have meant that tongue-in-cheek, but do you think they should fundamentally be valued as a traditional manufacturer or as a tech stock?
  - sroussey 6y ago
    Why tongue-in-cheek?
    - bumby 6y ago
      Maybe it wasn’t meant that way, but it can certainly be read if one considers the “95%” as an exaggeration. That’s why I was trying to clarify if it was meant to be out of line with “cyclical manufacturing” or with “tech”
      - sroussey 6y ago
        The idea that Tesla should have a “tech” multiple, which generally means 80% margins and high growth rates, is kinda scary, since they don’t have either. 80-95% drop would be reasonable if and when it loses its “story”. But it can use its valuation to bring in capital to try and make the business into something else.
  - kingnothing 6y ago

justjonathan 6y ago

The reason it fell?https://xkcd.com/904/ https://xkcd.com/904/

vsareto 6y ago

Idk how anyone can look at Tesla and see that it's "fundamentally" flawed.

gumby 6y ago

> Any stock that moves 20% on this kind of decision is fundamentally flawed. When a stock join an index, all the index funds (which simply passively follow the index) have to purchase a proportionate amount of that Stock (and got rid of whatever stock was ejected). Sonic you think stock X will go into an index you know that there will soon be a brief surge in demand for shares of X. Why now own some so that when that surge happens you’ll make a quick profit? Oops, didn’t join, so now you probably want to get rid of thats tick you just held to flip. I don’t think Tesla is a good investment but this particular and unusual case is not why.

LatteLazy 6y ago

Wouldn't any stock that was removed from the index fall 20% as indexers sold it? This is the power of Indexes, not the weakness of Tesla isn't it? (I am actually glad it didn't make it in as I think it's too volatile and also I want to buy some :) )