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Another project from the Long Now Foundation that people might find interesting is Long Bets (https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/), a site for charitabl
by ricree 6y ago
Another project from the Long Now Foundation that people might find interesting is Long Bets (https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/), a site for charitable wagers based around longer term predictions of the future. With the site approaching 20 years old now, we're starting to see many of the medium term bets coming up for settlement, and it's interesting to look back and see what people were predicting around the turn of the century.
Some of the ones I found particularly interesting that are/will be settled this decade:
Bet 12 (https://longbets.org/12/ https://longbets.org/12/) - No one will win a Nobel Prize for string theory by 2020
Bet 1 (https://longbets.org/1/ https://longbets.org/1/) - The Turing test will not be passed by 2029
Bet 4 (https://longbets.org/4/ https://longbets.org/4/) - Pilotless passenger planes will be routine by the end of the decade.
Bet 712 (https://longbets.org/712/ https://longbets.org/712/) - A commercial driverless car service will be available (in Las Vegas)
The site was also somewhat notable for the "million dollar bet" (https://longbets.org/362/ https://longbets.org/362/) between Warren Buffet and Protege Partners about whether a curated portfolio of hedge funds would outperform the S&P500 over a ten year span.
- kbaker 6y agoDon't forget this one: Bet 9 (https://longbets.org/9/ https://longbets.org/9/) - A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020. If it was truly an accidental lab release, it could be a winning bet...
- samatman 6y agoIf reality were in fact a gritty cyberpunk novel, instead of just strongly resembling one, a team of private investigators hired by friends of the Long Now would be the force which finally cracks this case wide open...
- p1mrx 6y agoThat seems implausible, with a whole $400 at stake.
- gorgoiler 6y agoI like this story idea a lot! In the story universe, The Longs keep a low profile by publishing the bets in dollars. In fact, an international cabal of power players have $400,000,000 riding on this one. The Longs don’t want to cause alarm.
- sassycassie 6y agome too!
- shadowprofile77 6y agoThe Chinese government would of course deny this for as long as it could in the face of almost any future evidence, but the idea is at least possible. (I'm referring to a genuine lab accident regarding a natural virus being covered up as an event at the market instead, not a conspiracy theory about a bioengineered intentional release)
- lowdose 6y agoI wish they publish more of the recent material from the foundation. This video is still much appreciated. https://youtu.be/l-visVMXc6s https://youtu.be/l-visVMXc6s