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Interesting to find this in HN. Of course I hope for the best outcome, but I don't think it's achievable. The way I see it there is no real opposition leaders,

Interesting to find this in HN. Of course I hope for the best outcome, but I don't think it's achievable. The way I see it there is no real opposition leaders, because they are in jail. This women triumvirate, whom were not leaders themselves was probably surprised themselves amount of support they got. There seemingly is no plan by the opposition, other than hope that the regime turns on the Lukashenko. When that happens and there is no organized opposition, the regime just grows a new head. Which I guess would be a some sort of success. Democracy (and the values it embodies like freedom of speech and assembly) is an agreement among the elite. If there is no agreement among the elite then democratic values has little chance surviving.

sam_lowry_ 6y ago
Lukashenka and his clique have been consistently eliminating all public figures for 26 years straight. The fact the public is able to organize without real leaders is a true success and the only viable way for them to succeed. Yesterday, bandits from local militia arrested all the members of the water rescue crew that helped protesters out of the water where they jumped to escape. The same day the head of the criminal police was photographed shattering the windows of a café where some of the protesters receded. Yesterday again, a second heavily beaten dead body was found in the woods in what looks like a militia victim. Merciless criminals took over all police and security forces and they act with total impunity. How can there be "real opposition leaders" in in a scenario where they are beaten, imprisoned or exiled soon after becoming public figures?
- Ciantic 6y ago
  I was not meant to be demeaning, I have been following the situation very closely and know about each of the events you listed. I want them to succeed! I do think that it's a success they can even demonstrate, the regime is so brutal. However when I look at further ahead, it feels bleak to me. 1990s criminals and their entourage have became the heads of state, how can you unseat them with leaderless opposition?
  - sam_lowry_ 6y ago
    Keeping up with protests is tiring. Lukashenka is 66, his main killer Pavlichenko is 50. Sheiman, another guy with blood on his hands, is even older. Their kids are grown ups but they have been kept away from state affairs. I think they will wear out.
    - Ciantic 6y ago
      Yes the few will wear out, I even believe the regime will replace Lukashenko. But my point is that these regimes are wider than they seem. As one man put it in twitter about Russia: KGB and 90s Mafia merged, and it became the state of Russia. I think there is similar situation in Belarus, the criminals are in charge at all levels of state and each city. Sweeping it away without organized opposition requires a miracle.

sam_lowry_ 6y ago

Lukashenka and his clique have been consistently eliminating all public figures for 26 years straight. The fact the public is able to organize without real leaders is a true success and the only viable way for them to succeed. Yesterday, bandits from local militia arrested all the members of the water rescue crew that helped protesters out of the water where they jumped to escape. The same day the head of the criminal police was photographed shattering the windows of a café where some of the protesters receded. Yesterday again, a second heavily beaten dead body was found in the woods in what looks like a militia victim. Merciless criminals took over all police and security forces and they act with total impunity. How can there be "real opposition leaders" in in a scenario where they are beaten, imprisoned or exiled soon after becoming public figures?

Ciantic 6y ago
I was not meant to be demeaning, I have been following the situation very closely and know about each of the events you listed. I want them to succeed! I do think that it's a success they can even demonstrate, the regime is so brutal. However when I look at further ahead, it feels bleak to me. 1990s criminals and their entourage have became the heads of state, how can you unseat them with leaderless opposition?
- sam_lowry_ 6y ago
  Keeping up with protests is tiring. Lukashenka is 66, his main killer Pavlichenko is 50. Sheiman, another guy with blood on his hands, is even older. Their kids are grown ups but they have been kept away from state affairs. I think they will wear out.
  - Ciantic 6y ago
    Yes the few will wear out, I even believe the regime will replace Lukashenko. But my point is that these regimes are wider than they seem. As one man put it in twitter about Russia: KGB and 90s Mafia merged, and it became the state of Russia. I think there is similar situation in Belarus, the criminals are in charge at all levels of state and each city. Sweeping it away without organized opposition requires a miracle.