11 ms·
The 10,000 Year Clock
- dang 6y agoHere's an attempt to collect all the interesting previous discussions. Can anybody find one I missed? (Note: this is just for curiosity. Reposts are fine on HN after a year or so: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html) 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16210106 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16210106 2015 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8875319 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8875319 2014 (a bit): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8555122 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8555122 2014 (a bit): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7979761 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7979761 2013 (a bit): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6155469 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6155469 2011 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2665380 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2665380 2011 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2983359 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2983359 2011 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2691452 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2691452 2011 (a bit): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3197789 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3197789 Starting off 2020 with a nasty bit: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22184282 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22184282
- M4v3R 6y agoWhile reading one of the 2011 threads I came across this incredible comment by Eliezer (who I didn't know about before) replying to someone else: > > In 100 years I hope to have grandchildren who knew me still living. > > In 1000 years it's a stretch that there will still be an accurate note of my existence. > > In 10000 there may not even be a myth about the existence of any of us here. > 10,000 years from now, I'm going to remind you that you said that, and we'll both think it was pretty funny. The thought of this for some reason captured my imagination, so I clicked on the username, and then his website, which led me to the AI-Box Experiment and oh boy... what a journey this was. Highly recommend reading about this.
- dgellow 6y agoAI Box experiment: https://yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox/ https://yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox/
- searchableguy 6y agoIt looks interesting but I don't buy that an AI or any human can convince a sufficiently motivated and capable individual to let them out of the prison with no materialistic profit. (like the two defeated individuals) Let's assume the gatekeeper is a cold hearted psychopath or a person with AI phobia/paranoia to the extreme. Why would they let the AI out when they can't feel anything for it? The author does explain the time gap but what if that is only for collecting information about the person beforehand in order to blackmail them or steer the conversation into a pinching point? What if you start with s person with no identity? There are no ethical concerns here. Maybe author will shout horrible things enough times and since you as the gate keeper needs to keep talking and engaging, you may let the AI out but well, we have a psychopath here. Do people need to engage in good faith with AI? Can I continue to say Sorry, I can't answer that.? Yes? Does the gatekeeper need to be honest? Can I use a client side toxicity filter or censor certain words? There is nothing that would restrict above so what if I censor AI from saying let me out or similar phrases? Can you increase the handicap for the AI?
- M4v3R 6y agoWhat I find fascinating is that two people already were convinced that they’d never release the AI and yet during the experiment they ultimately did. And they had money incentive to do otherwise (Eliezer would pay them if they decided not to let him out). You cannot really say that there’s nothing that could convince you since the conversation was off the record so we’ll never know for sure how would we react if we had that conversation instead. It’s also telling that back then when those experiments were initially conducted you could have a gentleman’s agreement like this (to not disclose the method of convincing) with a complete stranger on the Internet. Sadly nowadays many people would probably do a YouTube video about that immediately.
- tempsolution 6y ago> If you have a Clock ticking for 10,000 years what kinds of generational-scale questions and projects will it suggest? Like... None? This seems like a complete waste of resources. It's probably a life-like toy from someone with too much money? The world needs more 10,000 year clocks, we don't have any other problems... If you want a 10,000 clock, you bury a radioactive rock with a note about the decay pattern at the time of creation and future radiologist will know how long it's been "ticking". Problem solved.
- Animats 6y agoIt's still not finished? They've been working on that, and collecting money, for over 20 years now. The one in Van Horn is just the prototype, too.
- WJW 6y agoWhat a few decades in construction when it's supposed to last for multiple millennia? The society of the Long Now probably even considers it an advantage, in some sort of symbolic way. Most cathedrals are also built for eternity and some take centuries to complete.
- arethuza 6y agoThere are probably too many distraction from the outside world - best to build a wall round the area and let those within focus on their work. Perhaps there could be gates in the wall that open at suitable time periods...
- WJW 6y agoMaybe have concentric rings with gates that open at 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year intervals to keep things simple?
- alasdair_ 6y agoI never managed to finish that one. Worth it in the end?
- drxzcl 6y agoOnly if you like Stephenson Endings.
- alasdair_ 6y agoI liked Snow Crash, Diamond Age, Cryptonomicon, Interface, Zodiak and even REAMDE and The Big U and cobweb (to an extent). I never finished the Baroque cycle though, despite buying the first book in hardback in day one. I also never quite finished Dodge in Hell either but probably will some day.
- RichardHeart 6y agoI'd trade it for a better chance of personally seeing New Year's eve in 2200.
- ricree 6y agoAnother project from the Long Now Foundation that people might find interesting is Long Bets (https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/), a site for charitable wagers based around longer term predictions of the future. With the site approaching 20 years old now, we're starting to see many of the medium term bets coming up for settlement, and it's interesting to look back and see what people were predicting around the turn of the century. Some of the ones I found particularly interesting that are/will be settled this decade: Bet 12 (https://longbets.org/12/ https://longbets.org/12/) - No one will win a Nobel Prize for string theory by 2020 Bet 1 (https://longbets.org/1/ https://longbets.org/1/) - The Turing test will not be passed by 2029 Bet 4 (https://longbets.org/4/ https://longbets.org/4/) - Pilotless passenger planes will be routine by the end of the decade. Bet 712 (https://longbets.org/712/ https://longbets.org/712/) - A commercial driverless car service will be available (in Las Vegas) The site was also somewhat notable for the "million dollar bet" (https://longbets.org/362/ https://longbets.org/362/) between Warren Buffet and Protege Partners about whether a curated portfolio of hedge funds would outperform the S&P500 over a ten year span.
- kbaker 6y agoDon't forget this one: Bet 9 (https://longbets.org/9/ https://longbets.org/9/) - A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020. If it was truly an accidental lab release, it could be a winning bet...
- theodpHN 6y agoOn April 15th (Tax Day), the Long Now Foundation was approved as a recipient of a "$150,000-350,000" Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan, allowing it to retain 21 jobs. https://projects.propublica.org/coronavirus/bailouts/search?q=long+now+foundation https://projects.propublica.org/coronavirus/bailouts/search?... Even without the PPP loan, it's doubtful that the Clock of The Long Now was in jeopardy — Bezos' wealth soared to $200 billion during the pandemic, a new record for the world's richest person.
- wburglett 6y agoOne of my favorite ideas for how to address this kind of problem is to build a 'clock' based on continuous performance that serves as its own explanation. The best example I can think of is the Halberstadt performance of John Cage's ASLSP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_Slow_as_Possible#Performance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_Slow_as_Possible#Performanc...)
- p1mrx 6y agoIf a performance requiring human intervention counts as a clock, then a human-maintained physical clock should too. Why not get a head start with some 14th century cathedral clocks?
- fipar 6y agoI thought about Cage when I saw this submission, and submitted the Wikipedia page for this piece right away. I see your comment now and I’m glad I’m not the only one that made the connection!
- divbzero 6y agoThe 10,000 Year Clock was part of Neal Stephenson’s inspiration for Anathem. [1] [1]: https://www.nealstephenson.com/anathem.html https://www.nealstephenson.com/anathem.html
- drdeadringer 6y agoAbout 10 years ago I swung by their San Francisco office. They had an alcove set up with speakers to demonstrate what the clock might sound like. It was very Brian Eno, a la "Music For Airports" but like "Music For Time".
- artpi 6y agoThere is a book by the same title - "Clock of the long now". My favourite line is "In the long run saving yourself requires saving the whole world." I am getting kind of obssesed how all the problems we are experiencing now stem form externalizing consequences to the future. Climate change, messed up economy or even technical debt stem from making choices that have only short-term consequences in mind. Speaking of technical debt- I have a post in the works adapting the principles of the long clock to software design. The work of the long now foundation is underrated. Go slow, Avoid sliding friction (gears) Avoid ticking Stay clean Stay dry Expect bad weather Expect earthquakes Expect non-malicious human interaction Dont tempt thieves Use familiar materials Allow inspection Rehearse motions Make it easy to build spare parts Expect restarts Include the manual Scalability and Evolvabilty: Make all parts similar size Separate functions Provide simple interfaces Here is my summary of the book: https://piszek.com/2019/10/12/long-now/ https://piszek.com/2019/10/12/long-now/
- shadowprofile77 6y agoThat's a great list of characteristics that you could apply to so many technical constructions for extreme long term use (habitats, power systems, space ships, colonies etc)