4 ms·
It doesn't even make sense to talk about cases per existing case for imported cases, because by definition they're not caused by existing cases within the count
by makomk 6y ago
It doesn't even make sense to talk about cases per existing case for imported cases, because by definition they're not caused by existing cases within the country. Like, maybe that could help tame down the clusters from those imported cases, but then you have to impose lockdown restrictions indefinitely and lose one of the big benefits of elimination over the "try and keep R just below 1.0" strategy - being able to lift those restrictions and avoid the ongoing economic and social damage they cause.
Also, I think that in reality this isn't actually as scale-free as the nice simplified models suggest, and having 100x the population would make it harder to stamp out spread within the country. Remember, the number of cases per existing case isn't some fundamental physical constant - it's an average over a bunch of different opportunities for transmission with wildly varying expected numbers of new cases per existing case. 100x the scale means 100x the opportunities for low-probability superspreading events that ruin your day.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- Retric 6y agoReproduction rates is below 1 mean a small number of new cases from minor outbreaks or border crossings are effectively meaningless. The US is currently reducing the number of active infections with poorly implemented social distancing and minimal mask usage. DisneyWorld for example is open and without becoming a hotspot of infections. Reaching that point 4 months ago was a completely reasonable goal. Sure, our current situation is improved by some herd immunity, but that’s far from the only effect in play.