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AFAIK there is a significant (>=5%) chance that the election night totals will show a conclusive win for the incumbent, but the eventual complete tally will sho
by rudiv 6y ago
AFAIK there is a significant (>=5%) chance that the election night totals will show a conclusive win for the incumbent, but the eventual complete tally will show the opposite. This has the potential to cause a lot of confusion in the immediate aftermath of election night. Whether there will be undemocratic moves by the incumbent or otherwise in the time between election night and the final count is obviously a matter of speculation, but given the mercurial temper of the country I worry about how the nation at large will react to such confusion.
- Simulacra 6y agoExcept for 2000 which was an anomaly, and perhaps Truman vs. Dewey, can you point to a Presidential election in modern times that suddenly flipped overnight for the other candidate? I would say there's a < 5% chance of that happening now, unless there is corruption.
- D13Fd 6y agoMail in ballots.
- rudiv 6y agoPerhaps you could do some research on the amount of time it will take to count mail in ballots and the relative difference between likelihood of mail-in voting for both parties. Or maybe your superficial response is correct, and there is nothing exceptional about this election, and COVID-19 will no longer be a concern, tomorrow?