4 ms·

Does anyone here have an informed opinion on what will happen to Taiwan?

PakG1 6y ago
Did an MBA in Hong Kong, just finished earlier this year. A lot of my classmates are mainland Chinese. Bunch of them would regularly talk with each other and say that military action was the only way to resolve the situation, China needs to send its military to Taiwan and overrun the Taiwanese defenses quickly. Baffles my mind that they're so ready to default to war. Some other mainland Chinese people are more nuanced in their thoughts. I have no idea about population percentages for opinions. But this a world-class top 20 MBA school, and had one undergraduate student die while protesting (fell off a building). Bunch of these classmates are educated with masters degrees from American universities. If they default to war, I'm a bit concerned, I'd expect them to see more nuance in the world. For them, it's not really war of course, as Taiwan was always theirs in the first place in their eyes. Any foreign interference in the matter is a slap in the face of Chinese sovereignty, was the same for Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a difficult situation because the entire world agrees that Hong Kong belongs to China. Taiwan is difficult in that most of the world has agreed that Taiwan belongs to China, that is the crux of the One China policy that China forces all countries to agree to if they want to have diplomatic and trade relations with China. If you break with the One China policy, you break diplomatic and trade relations with China. Don't see most countries willing to take that step. Big game of chicken. For what it's worth, the Chinese government's official stance is that military action is a last resort option only if diplomatic negotiations fail.
- jimmaswell 6y ago
  Maybe now is the time to rip off the bandaid and break trade with China while we're already in a recession anyway.
  - PakG1 6y ago
    I think you misunderstand how much of the world's electronics are manufactured in China and how difficult it would be to relocate all that. Like I'm invested in a rare earth element company in Canada, and I still expect to see the world rely on Chinese rare earth elements for a few years yet, let alone manufacturing know-how. It'll take a few years, maybe a decade, to set all that up in other countries, including in the US. Obama once asked Steve Jobs why the iPhone can't be manufactured in the US, Jobs said the skills weren't there. https://www.heraldtribune.com/article/LK/20120123/News/605191697/SH https://www.heraldtribune.com/article/LK/20120123/News/60519... And it's not like the American education system is the greatest. Great universities, but what of the high schools?
    - srtjstjsj 6y ago
      You don't need a great high school diploma to work in a factory. Jobs had always been excellent at lying for his own interest. What he really meant is that US employees expect higher wages but the US doesn't tarriff the dumping of Chinese labor.
    - ardy42 6y ago
      > Obama once asked Steve Jobs why the iPhone can't be manufactured in the US, Jobs said the skills weren't there. Once upon a time, the skills weren't in China, either.
      - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
        https://www.cultofmac.com/617676/a-brief-history-of-steve-jobs-automated-factory-at-next-cook-book-leftovers/ https://www.cultofmac.com/617676/a-brief-history-of-steve-jo... edit: Similar case in Augsburg, Germany where Fujitsu-Siemens had a very modern and automated assembly line, even allowing small batches of "built to order" variations out of common bases. Didn't matter. Gone. Recently(as in about 2 years ago).
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  Taiwan is in 'China' in the same way as both North Korea and South Korea are in Korea. The difference is that the People's Republic of China (what 'China' usually refers to) has decided that the Republic of China has ceased to exist in 1949 (Taiwan is the last remaining territory controlled by the Republic of China) and that they are strong enough to largely 'enforce' this policy on the world stage. So, of course for Chinese this is a domestic issue. The West cares because the PRC is an adversary and Taiwan has a strategic location on maritime routes to East Asia.
  - PakG1 6y ago
    Yes, but my point is that most of the world, including the US, has agreed to acknowledge the One China policy as correct in order to access China on a diplomatic and trade basis. Hence why it's not so easy to resolve.
    - mytailorisrich 6y ago
      The PRC controls 99% of China (that's about the ratio between the PRC and Taiwan). There was not really a choice there. As a European I don't really see what there is to resolve. I can just hope that things stay peaceful.
      - srtjstjsj 6y ago
        The desired resolution is that China becomes a free country. When the Nazis occupied France, the world didn't say "oh that's an internal German domestic issue"
        PakG1 6y ago
        The difference being that the world never agreed to the idea that France was a part of Germany. The world has for the most part agreed that Taiwan is a part of China. It is what it is. Whatever people's personal feelings might be, that is what most of the world has agreed to at an international diplomatic level. Only insignificant countries like Paraguay have decided to consider Taiwan an independent nation state.
- starfallg 6y ago
  >Hong Kong is a difficult situation because the entire world agrees that Hong Kong belongs to China. It's more nuanced than that. The reason for the one country two systems policy was that the rest of the world doesn't agree that the CCP should hold sovereignty over Hong Kong. China is seen as only temporality under the control of the CCP and that it will transition away from authoritarianism given the chance. The idea is that Mainland China will become more like HK. That didn't happen at all. With the passage of the security law, HK looks more like China.
- srtjstjsj 6y ago
  Would China let any non-loyalists go to HK?
  - PakG1 6y ago
    Not sure what your question is. With the new laws, China would not let any HK residents be non-loyalists.
- ergocoder 6y ago
  There is no way to take Taiwan through a deplomatic negotiation...
bigpumpkin 6y ago
It is unknown what will happen to Taiwan. It will depend on the overall relationship between US/China, and between China/Taiwan. If Taiwan declares independence or develops nuclear weapons, expect war within a year. If the status quo continues, then peace is likely to continue. China will probably acquire the capability to militarily invade in 2025-2030 even with US intervention.
- ginko 6y ago
  >If Taiwan declares independence or develops nuclear weapons, expect war within a year. It's my understanding that Taiwan is a nuclear threshold state and has pretty much everything in place to build nuclear weapons in a very short time. Similar to Japan and Germany.
martythemaniak 6y ago
Well, no one can tell because the future hasn't happened yet. Certainly the Chinese (both gov and people) consider Taiwan to be a temporarily out of control province that must be brought back under control. They are just waiting for the most opportune time. Taiwanese themselves are more split on the question of independence. People's opinions and moods change over time as well.
dirtyid 6y ago
Reunication deadline is 29 years away. A lot can happen until then, and while Taiwanese identity and independence movement is expected to solidify, 29 years is still several generations for sentiment and attitudes to change. The reason why HK was taken now, with all narrative pointing it to be the death knell of 1 country 2 systems, is because HK nativism educated under western textbooks will be fundamentally incompatible with with "1 country" - for PRC any generation trained under Uk textbooks will be a perennial poison pill in terms of cross strait relations. So now new gen of HKers will get brainwashed on patriotic education and NSL will ensure future generations to be firmly pro-China which may coincide with revival of 1C2S if happenstance leads to compatible political shifts in Taiwan. Ideally it will coincide with a prosperous greater bay area with the simultaneous economic decline of Taiwan due to PRC geopolitical maneuvering. Again 29 years is a long time, that's the only hope for peaceful reunification. Meanwhile hope CCP manages nationalism, because a democratic China would have invaded Taiwan already. Fucking Taiwan would be everyone alternative factions trump card if there was ever internecine political struggle. Alternative is engineering false flag attack from Taiwan and invading under guise of a retaliatory action. IMO all the scenarios of China flat out invading Taiwan because muh redlines is not credible. It will be hybrid warfare with gray zone tactics that China has perfected in SCS, belligerance will be ambiguous enough to provide ample excuse for most countries to sitout, except US, no one wants to intervene against a nuclear power, or just Chinese conventional power on current tracetry of acquisition.

Did an MBA in Hong Kong, just finished earlier this year. A lot of my classmates are mainland Chinese. Bunch of them would regularly talk with each other and say that military action was the only way to resolve the situation, China needs to send its military to Taiwan and overrun the Taiwanese defenses quickly. Baffles my mind that they're so ready to default to war. Some other mainland Chinese people are more nuanced in their thoughts. I have no idea about population percentages for opinions. But this a world-class top 20 MBA school, and had one undergraduate student die while protesting (fell off a building). Bunch of these classmates are educated with masters degrees from American universities. If they default to war, I'm a bit concerned, I'd expect them to see more nuance in the world. For them, it's not really war of course, as Taiwan was always theirs in the first place in their eyes. Any foreign interference in the matter is a slap in the face of Chinese sovereignty, was the same for Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a difficult situation because the entire world agrees that Hong Kong belongs to China. Taiwan is difficult in that most of the world has agreed that Taiwan belongs to China, that is the crux of the One China policy that China forces all countries to agree to if they want to have diplomatic and trade relations with China. If you break with the One China policy, you break diplomatic and trade relations with China. Don't see most countries willing to take that step. Big game of chicken. For what it's worth, the Chinese government's official stance is that military action is a last resort option only if diplomatic negotiations fail.

jimmaswell 6y ago
Maybe now is the time to rip off the bandaid and break trade with China while we're already in a recession anyway.
- PakG1 6y ago
  I think you misunderstand how much of the world's electronics are manufactured in China and how difficult it would be to relocate all that. Like I'm invested in a rare earth element company in Canada, and I still expect to see the world rely on Chinese rare earth elements for a few years yet, let alone manufacturing know-how. It'll take a few years, maybe a decade, to set all that up in other countries, including in the US. Obama once asked Steve Jobs why the iPhone can't be manufactured in the US, Jobs said the skills weren't there. https://www.heraldtribune.com/article/LK/20120123/News/605191697/SH https://www.heraldtribune.com/article/LK/20120123/News/60519... And it's not like the American education system is the greatest. Great universities, but what of the high schools?
  - srtjstjsj 6y ago
    You don't need a great high school diploma to work in a factory. Jobs had always been excellent at lying for his own interest. What he really meant is that US employees expect higher wages but the US doesn't tarriff the dumping of Chinese labor.
  - ardy42 6y ago
    > Obama once asked Steve Jobs why the iPhone can't be manufactured in the US, Jobs said the skills weren't there. Once upon a time, the skills weren't in China, either.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
      https://www.cultofmac.com/617676/a-brief-history-of-steve-jobs-automated-factory-at-next-cook-book-leftovers/ https://www.cultofmac.com/617676/a-brief-history-of-steve-jo... edit: Similar case in Augsburg, Germany where Fujitsu-Siemens had a very modern and automated assembly line, even allowing small batches of "built to order" variations out of common bases. Didn't matter. Gone. Recently(as in about 2 years ago).
mytailorisrich 6y ago
Taiwan is in 'China' in the same way as both North Korea and South Korea are in Korea. The difference is that the People's Republic of China (what 'China' usually refers to) has decided that the Republic of China has ceased to exist in 1949 (Taiwan is the last remaining territory controlled by the Republic of China) and that they are strong enough to largely 'enforce' this policy on the world stage. So, of course for Chinese this is a domestic issue. The West cares because the PRC is an adversary and Taiwan has a strategic location on maritime routes to East Asia.
- PakG1 6y ago
  Yes, but my point is that most of the world, including the US, has agreed to acknowledge the One China policy as correct in order to access China on a diplomatic and trade basis. Hence why it's not so easy to resolve.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    The PRC controls 99% of China (that's about the ratio between the PRC and Taiwan). There was not really a choice there. As a European I don't really see what there is to resolve. I can just hope that things stay peaceful.
    - srtjstjsj 6y ago
      The desired resolution is that China becomes a free country. When the Nazis occupied France, the world didn't say "oh that's an internal German domestic issue"
      - PakG1 6y ago
        The difference being that the world never agreed to the idea that France was a part of Germany. The world has for the most part agreed that Taiwan is a part of China. It is what it is. Whatever people's personal feelings might be, that is what most of the world has agreed to at an international diplomatic level. Only insignificant countries like Paraguay have decided to consider Taiwan an independent nation state.
starfallg 6y ago
>Hong Kong is a difficult situation because the entire world agrees that Hong Kong belongs to China. It's more nuanced than that. The reason for the one country two systems policy was that the rest of the world doesn't agree that the CCP should hold sovereignty over Hong Kong. China is seen as only temporality under the control of the CCP and that it will transition away from authoritarianism given the chance. The idea is that Mainland China will become more like HK. That didn't happen at all. With the passage of the security law, HK looks more like China.
srtjstjsj 6y ago
Would China let any non-loyalists go to HK?
- PakG1 6y ago
  Not sure what your question is. With the new laws, China would not let any HK residents be non-loyalists.
ergocoder 6y ago
There is no way to take Taiwan through a deplomatic negotiation...

bigpumpkin 6y ago

It is unknown what will happen to Taiwan. It will depend on the overall relationship between US/China, and between China/Taiwan. If Taiwan declares independence or develops nuclear weapons, expect war within a year. If the status quo continues, then peace is likely to continue. China will probably acquire the capability to militarily invade in 2025-2030 even with US intervention.

ginko 6y ago
>If Taiwan declares independence or develops nuclear weapons, expect war within a year. It's my understanding that Taiwan is a nuclear threshold state and has pretty much everything in place to build nuclear weapons in a very short time. Similar to Japan and Germany.

martythemaniak 6y ago

Well, no one can tell because the future hasn't happened yet. Certainly the Chinese (both gov and people) consider Taiwan to be a temporarily out of control province that must be brought back under control. They are just waiting for the most opportune time. Taiwanese themselves are more split on the question of independence. People's opinions and moods change over time as well.

dirtyid 6y ago

Reunication deadline is 29 years away. A lot can happen until then, and while Taiwanese identity and independence movement is expected to solidify, 29 years is still several generations for sentiment and attitudes to change. The reason why HK was taken now, with all narrative pointing it to be the death knell of 1 country 2 systems, is because HK nativism educated under western textbooks will be fundamentally incompatible with with "1 country" - for PRC any generation trained under Uk textbooks will be a perennial poison pill in terms of cross strait relations. So now new gen of HKers will get brainwashed on patriotic education and NSL will ensure future generations to be firmly pro-China which may coincide with revival of 1C2S if happenstance leads to compatible political shifts in Taiwan. Ideally it will coincide with a prosperous greater bay area with the simultaneous economic decline of Taiwan due to PRC geopolitical maneuvering. Again 29 years is a long time, that's the only hope for peaceful reunification. Meanwhile hope CCP manages nationalism, because a democratic China would have invaded Taiwan already. Fucking Taiwan would be everyone alternative factions trump card if there was ever internecine political struggle. Alternative is engineering false flag attack from Taiwan and invading under guise of a retaliatory action. IMO all the scenarios of China flat out invading Taiwan because muh redlines is not credible. It will be hybrid warfare with gray zone tactics that China has perfected in SCS, belligerance will be ambiguous enough to provide ample excuse for most countries to sitout, except US, no one wants to intervene against a nuclear power, or just Chinese conventional power on current tracetry of acquisition.