4 ms·

What the media must do to fend off an election-night disaster

tarboreus 6y ago
Archived post: https://archive.is/tqszq https://archive.is/tqszq
rudiv 6y ago
AFAIK there is a significant (>=5%) chance that the election night totals will show a conclusive win for the incumbent, but the eventual complete tally will show the opposite. This has the potential to cause a lot of confusion in the immediate aftermath of election night. Whether there will be undemocratic moves by the incumbent or otherwise in the time between election night and the final count is obviously a matter of speculation, but given the mercurial temper of the country I worry about how the nation at large will react to such confusion.
- Simulacra 6y ago
  Except for 2000 which was an anomaly, and perhaps Truman vs. Dewey, can you point to a Presidential election in modern times that suddenly flipped overnight for the other candidate? I would say there's a < 5% chance of that happening now, unless there is corruption.
  - D13Fd 6y ago
    Mail in ballots.
  - rudiv 6y ago
    Perhaps you could do some research on the amount of time it will take to count mail in ballots and the relative difference between likelihood of mail-in voting for both parties. Or maybe your superficial response is correct, and there is nothing exceptional about this election, and COVID-19 will no longer be a concern, tomorrow?
hereme888 6y ago
What the media should do is stop their political agenda painting a picture for what they want their viewers to think. Look at what happened in 2016. Democrats were sure they would win. And look at what happened. But they won't learn. It's greed and agendas. I can't imagine what's going to happen as Trump challenges Biden to a debate, how that debate will go, what the media will report, and how it will be an all out media and political war until a winner is declared after election night.
D13Fd 6y ago
The article is focused on the "disaster" of the media saying the election came out one way, and the election actually turning out the other way after late or mail-in ballots are counted. The solution the article gives, in maybe too many words, is just "don't jump the gun about who won." There is really not much to see here.
- tmaly 6y ago
  Is that not what the modern media is incentivized for? The 24 hour news cycle and clickbait headlines. More eyeballs = more ad dollars

Archived post: https://archive.is/tqszq https://archive.is/tqszq

AFAIK there is a significant (>=5%) chance that the election night totals will show a conclusive win for the incumbent, but the eventual complete tally will show the opposite. This has the potential to cause a lot of confusion in the immediate aftermath of election night. Whether there will be undemocratic moves by the incumbent or otherwise in the time between election night and the final count is obviously a matter of speculation, but given the mercurial temper of the country I worry about how the nation at large will react to such confusion.

Simulacra 6y ago
Except for 2000 which was an anomaly, and perhaps Truman vs. Dewey, can you point to a Presidential election in modern times that suddenly flipped overnight for the other candidate? I would say there's a < 5% chance of that happening now, unless there is corruption.
- D13Fd 6y ago
  Mail in ballots.
- rudiv 6y ago
  Perhaps you could do some research on the amount of time it will take to count mail in ballots and the relative difference between likelihood of mail-in voting for both parties. Or maybe your superficial response is correct, and there is nothing exceptional about this election, and COVID-19 will no longer be a concern, tomorrow?

hereme888 6y ago

What the media should do is stop their political agenda painting a picture for what they want their viewers to think. Look at what happened in 2016. Democrats were sure they would win. And look at what happened. But they won't learn. It's greed and agendas. I can't imagine what's going to happen as Trump challenges Biden to a debate, how that debate will go, what the media will report, and how it will be an all out media and political war until a winner is declared after election night.

D13Fd 6y ago

The article is focused on the "disaster" of the media saying the election came out one way, and the election actually turning out the other way after late or mail-in ballots are counted. The solution the article gives, in maybe too many words, is just "don't jump the gun about who won." There is really not much to see here.

tmaly 6y ago
Is that not what the modern media is incentivized for? The 24 hour news cycle and clickbait headlines. More eyeballs = more ad dollars