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> "The event you are referring to was also a freak event. The Tohoku earthquake was the 4th largest _ever_ recorded and the largest ever recorded in Japan" The

> "The event you are referring to was also a freak event. The Tohoku earthquake was the 4th largest _ever_ recorded and the largest ever recorded in Japan" There is no doubt that the 2011 earthquake was an extreme event, but it's incorrect to say that it was not foreseeable or that the plant's safety systems could not have prevented the disaster. Further up Japan's coast, the Onagawa nuclear plant was much closer to the earthquake's epicentre. It was subjected to extreme shaking, far more than any other nuclear plant in history, and like Fukushima was also flooded by the tsunami. Yet it was able to shut down safely as designed in the hours that followed, and its structure was "remarkably undamaged" considering the extreme magnitude and duration of the shaking. 2 of its 3 reactors are expected to be restarted soon following structural repairs and seismic upgrades.

godelski 6y ago
I am not trying to say that things couldn't be designed better. They could (that is never _not_ true). But it is also important to remember that this was a crazy accident as well and several uncommon things had to go wrong at once. The reactor was designed to withstand 100 year earthquake and tsunamis (that's equivalent to flipping almost 7 heads in a row) (we're also not accounting for the odds of the tsunami). But what I am suggesting is that there is a limit. Sure, we could foresee 100 heads landing in a row, it is certainly possible, but at the end of the day you have that end up with an acceptable amount of risk. I do not think 100 year events (1:99 probability) is correct as climate change is changing those odds, but it isn't like this was engineers being lazy and dumb. You are using post hoc analysis to justify actions made without that knowledge. As they say, hindsight is 2020. I do want to remind you that this was the largest earthquake to EVER hit Japan. That's much harder to predict and extremely reasonable to believe such an event is unlikely during the expected lifetime of the reactor.

godelski 6y ago

I am not trying to say that things couldn't be designed better. They could (that is never _not_ true). But it is also important to remember that this was a crazy accident as well and several uncommon things had to go wrong at once. The reactor was designed to withstand 100 year earthquake and tsunamis (that's equivalent to flipping almost 7 heads in a row) (we're also not accounting for the odds of the tsunami). But what I am suggesting is that there is a limit. Sure, we could foresee 100 heads landing in a row, it is certainly possible, but at the end of the day you have that end up with an acceptable amount of risk. I do not think 100 year events (1:99 probability) is correct as climate change is changing those odds, but it isn't like this was engineers being lazy and dumb. You are using post hoc analysis to justify actions made without that knowledge. As they say, hindsight is 2020. I do want to remind you that this was the largest earthquake to EVER hit Japan. That's much harder to predict and extremely reasonable to believe such an event is unlikely during the expected lifetime of the reactor.