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> The key problem with their analysis is that they don't do a proper train-test split. Yes, that's bad. But the enterprise is doomed even earlier than that: th
by fractionalhare 6y ago
> The key problem with their analysis is that they don't do a proper train-test split.
Yes, that's bad. But the enterprise is doomed even earlier than that: the author is using a naive regression technique on timeseries data. Stock price data is typically log-normally distributed and non-stationary. If the author is not going to use a robust timeseries technique like ARIMA, they need to transform and constrain the data to account for non-stationarity. Otherwise it's trivial to find superfluous correlations which appear to show a strong linear relationship between some fundamental financial metric and some other technical indicator, because both may have a temporal component (e.g. stocks tend to go up over time, and a lot of technical indicators have some implicit component which also increase or decrease with time).
This is also why it's important to have a strong fundamental thesis to explain what's going on.
- ulucs 6y agoI don't think throwing ARIMA without the proper knowledge would be enough. AR is evident, but I and MA will be unjustified assumptions that take away from the meat of the subject. Also you might need to get into Panel Data methods when you are evaluating more than one stock