You might have some advantages, but you have 10x more blind-spots. What you believe about Tesla evaluation based on Self Driving might not matter because even

You might have some advantages, but you have 10x more blind-spots. What you believe about Tesla evaluation based on Self Driving might not matter because even if they miss that timeline, maybe they execute on their scaling or batteries or whatever. A huge company has many, many different things going and different analysts think different things matter far more. So you would need a whole group of these 'experts' working together evaluating each aspect. Now even worse is that expert don't just have hard time predicting the future, but are actually the worst at doing it in many ways. Tesla and electric cars being a perfect example. The amount of car insider that believed electric cars were absolutely not viable as a buissness was tiny. Even worse is that even if assume you know that some technology X will not hold up to the companies claims, their should maybe still go up based on competitors. I don't believe that Tesla can do Self Driving in the time-frame they claim, but the news about the competitors is even more worrying. Literally everything is connected in extremely complex way that no experts can understand. The temptation for smart people and expert to think they can is a deceit.