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> But there is also the possibility of a worst case that he describes in a chapter titled “Catastrophe.” Suppose that climate change has created an uninhabitabl

by moksly 6y ago

> But there is also the possibility of a worst case that he describes in a chapter titled “Catastrophe.” Suppose that climate change has created an uninhabitable equator. The aging advanced nations cannot sustain their deficit-financed prosperity. The population of Africa continues its rapid growth, resulting in a mass migration into Europe that meets increasing resistance. Reading this reminded me a bit of reading the WHO and our own leaders (I’m Danish, we handled the pandemic decently) not to worry about Covid back in January. Heh. > In the past, each decadent civilization has eventually given way to a dynamic competitor. In our case, might it be Islam? China? Russia? An America led by a more capable populist president? This also reads a little weird. The author is obviously well versed in history and the progression of civilisation, and as such, must be aware that we’ve always moved in a progressive direction. Sure it sometimes takes a few life times, but we’ve never moved permanently backwards before, so it would be rather strange if we started doing that now.

abyssin 6y ago
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
non-entity 6y ago
In the long run sure, but that doesn't mean there can't be set backs and temporary regressions.
i_haz_rabies 6y ago
We've also never had access to the kind of world-changing power we have now. Rome couldn't cause nuclear winter or irreversible climate change.
- moksly 6y ago
  Rome quite literally wiped entire civilisations off the map. Sure they didn’t use nukesc but what’s the difference when everyone in your culture dies?
AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago
> Sure it sometimes takes a few life times, but we’ve never moved permanently backwards before Playing devil's advocate here: perhaps that's because we always think of things that we're doing now as "right"? For instance there are societies in history that were open to some sexual relationships that we are not (mainly the ones involving minors or incest). At times in european history, animals were tried for crimes similarly to people. Are we more or less progressive than they are?
- moksly 6y ago
  Well, your example kind of proves my point as society has improved by not thinking incest is great.
woko 6y ago
> we’ve never moved permanently backwards before, so it would be rather strange if we started doing that now. It would not be strange. It would be unexpected. It reminds me of this funny little story: > "Every morning on a turkey farm, the farmer comes to feed the turkeys. A scientist turkey, having observed this pattern to hold without change for almost a year, makes the following discovery: “Every morning at eleven, food arrives.” On the morning of Thanksgiving, the scientist announces this law to the other turkeys. But that morning at eleven, food doesn’t arrive; instead, the farmer comes and kills the entire flock."
082349872349872 6y ago
> The population of Africa continues its rapid growth, resulting in a mass migration into Europe... For the previous century's version of this trope: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rising_Tide_of_Color_Against_White_World-Supremacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rising_Tide_of_Color_Again...
invalidOrTaken 6y ago
>we’ve never moved permanently backwards before, If we did, how would we know?
seneca 6y ago
> ... we’ve always moved in a progressive direction. Sure it sometimes takes a few life times, but we’ve never moved permanently backwards before, so it would be rather strange if we started doing that now. I suppose it depends on what you mean by "we" here. There are plenty of societies that moved permanently backwards, and are currently quite far behind where they previously were. Iran is a regressive theocracy and used to be a very modern country. China had a beautiful intellectual culture that contributed immensely to the world and is currently a genocidal despotocracy. Egypt was the intellectual capitol of the known world. In the middle east, there were generations of people who thought that the ruins of the civilizations that came before them must have been made by gods because they couldn't fathom them being created by humans. Civilizations backslide, and die, regularly throughout history. Now, if you mean "we" as in humanity as a whole, it's a tougher question. I do agree that humanity as a whole makes progress forward on a long enough timelines, but there were still many stumbling blocks along the way.
navait 6y ago
> This also reads a little weird. The author is obviously well versed in history and the progression of civilisation, and as such, must be aware that we’ve always moved in a progressive direction. Sure it sometimes takes a few life times, but we’ve never moved permanently backwards before, so it would be rather strange if we started doing that now. As a counterpoint, I'd read the essay "The Whig Interpretation of History"(1931). Her criticizes the notion of interpreting history as a story of progress. Review: https://partiallyexaminedlife.com/2015/11/19/philosophy-of-history-part-xix-herbert-butterfield-and-the-whig-interpretation-of-history/ https://partiallyexaminedlife.com/2015/11/19/philosophy-of-h...

by moksly 6y ago

abyssin 6y ago

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

non-entity 6y ago

In the long run sure, but that doesn't mean there can't be set backs and temporary regressions.

i_haz_rabies 6y ago

We've also never had access to the kind of world-changing power we have now. Rome couldn't cause nuclear winter or irreversible climate change.

moksly 6y ago
Rome quite literally wiped entire civilisations off the map. Sure they didn’t use nukesc but what’s the difference when everyone in your culture dies?

AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago

> Sure it sometimes takes a few life times, but we’ve never moved permanently backwards before Playing devil's advocate here: perhaps that's because we always think of things that we're doing now as "right"? For instance there are societies in history that were open to some sexual relationships that we are not (mainly the ones involving minors or incest). At times in european history, animals were tried for crimes similarly to people. Are we more or less progressive than they are?

moksly 6y ago
Well, your example kind of proves my point as society has improved by not thinking incest is great.

woko 6y ago

> we’ve never moved permanently backwards before, so it would be rather strange if we started doing that now. It would not be strange. It would be unexpected. It reminds me of this funny little story: > "Every morning on a turkey farm, the farmer comes to feed the turkeys. A scientist turkey, having observed this pattern to hold without change for almost a year, makes the following discovery: “Every morning at eleven, food arrives.” On the morning of Thanksgiving, the scientist announces this law to the other turkeys. But that morning at eleven, food doesn’t arrive; instead, the farmer comes and kills the entire flock."

082349872349872 6y ago

> The population of Africa continues its rapid growth, resulting in a mass migration into Europe... For the previous century's version of this trope: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rising_Tide_of_Color_Against_White_World-Supremacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rising_Tide_of_Color_Again...

invalidOrTaken 6y ago

>we’ve never moved permanently backwards before, If we did, how would we know?

seneca 6y ago

> ... we’ve always moved in a progressive direction. Sure it sometimes takes a few life times, but we’ve never moved permanently backwards before, so it would be rather strange if we started doing that now. I suppose it depends on what you mean by "we" here. There are plenty of societies that moved permanently backwards, and are currently quite far behind where they previously were. Iran is a regressive theocracy and used to be a very modern country. China had a beautiful intellectual culture that contributed immensely to the world and is currently a genocidal despotocracy. Egypt was the intellectual capitol of the known world. In the middle east, there were generations of people who thought that the ruins of the civilizations that came before them must have been made by gods because they couldn't fathom them being created by humans. Civilizations backslide, and die, regularly throughout history. Now, if you mean "we" as in humanity as a whole, it's a tougher question. I do agree that humanity as a whole makes progress forward on a long enough timelines, but there were still many stumbling blocks along the way.

navait 6y ago

> This also reads a little weird. The author is obviously well versed in history and the progression of civilisation, and as such, must be aware that we’ve always moved in a progressive direction. Sure it sometimes takes a few life times, but we’ve never moved permanently backwards before, so it would be rather strange if we started doing that now. As a counterpoint, I'd read the essay "The Whig Interpretation of History"(1931). Her criticizes the notion of interpreting history as a story of progress. Review: https://partiallyexaminedlife.com/2015/11/19/philosophy-of-history-part-xix-herbert-butterfield-and-the-whig-interpretation-of-history/ https://partiallyexaminedlife.com/2015/11/19/philosophy-of-h...