3 ms·

This is a substantial oversimplification. Hydroxychloroquine looked promising for a while, and was being studied in an RCT, but that RCT was ended before compl

by zamfi 6y ago

This is a substantial oversimplification. Hydroxychloroquine looked promising for a while, and was being studied in an RCT, but that RCT was ended before completion because of the release of an observational study that suggested strongly negative outcomes from Hydroxychloroquine. Later, that observational study was retracted because it was discovered to be based on falsified data. So, unfortunately, we don't know very much about Hydroxychloroquine's effectiveness and risks in use -- but we do know that it has become a massive political hot potato, as your comment indicates.

Izkata 6y ago
> but we do know that it has become a massive political hot potato I posted this a few days ago and got an interesting swing of votes on that comment since then: > So, unfortunately, we don't know very much about Hydroxychloroquine's effectiveness and risks in use For effectiveness it looks like we actually do, thanks to an experiment Switzerland accidentally ran on their population over May and June [0]. On May 27, they banned use of hydroxychloroquine, and 13 days later the death rate among resolved cases nearly tripled. Just after the spike began, on June 11 they reversed the ban and 13 days later the death rate drops back down. The graph from that article [1] is very stark, comparing the rate from late March through early July. [0] http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychloroquine-works-irrefutable-proof http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychlor... [1] http://www.francesoir.fr/sites/francesoir/files/20200713_fs_hcq_preuve_final_sw_1.jpg http://www.francesoir.fr/sites/francesoir/files/20200713_fs_...
- zamfi 6y ago
  That is quite a spike! Unfortunately the sharpness of the edge makes it pretty likely that a change in therapy is the cause -- time to death from hospital admission has a median of 10-12 days, but this is not a "wall", it's a median. The actual distribution is probably somewhat normal -- you'd expect a gradual increase and decrease around the intervention. We don't know how or when the Hydroxychloroquine was administered, but the mechanism of action seems to be prevention of infection early in the course of infection, generally before hospitalization. To me, this seems more likely coincidental or a reporting change.
  - zamfi 6y ago
    Ahhh I meant to say "pretty unlikely that a change in therapy is the cause" above.

by zamfi 6y ago

Izkata 6y ago

> but we do know that it has become a massive political hot potato I posted this a few days ago and got an interesting swing of votes on that comment since then: > So, unfortunately, we don't know very much about Hydroxychloroquine's effectiveness and risks in use For effectiveness it looks like we actually do, thanks to an experiment Switzerland accidentally ran on their population over May and June [0]. On May 27, they banned use of hydroxychloroquine, and 13 days later the death rate among resolved cases nearly tripled. Just after the spike began, on June 11 they reversed the ban and 13 days later the death rate drops back down. The graph from that article [1] is very stark, comparing the rate from late March through early July. [0] http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychloroquine-works-irrefutable-proof http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychlor... [1] http://www.francesoir.fr/sites/francesoir/files/20200713_fs_hcq_preuve_final_sw_1.jpg http://www.francesoir.fr/sites/francesoir/files/20200713_fs_...

zamfi 6y ago
That is quite a spike! Unfortunately the sharpness of the edge makes it pretty likely that a change in therapy is the cause -- time to death from hospital admission has a median of 10-12 days, but this is not a "wall", it's a median. The actual distribution is probably somewhat normal -- you'd expect a gradual increase and decrease around the intervention. We don't know how or when the Hydroxychloroquine was administered, but the mechanism of action seems to be prevention of infection early in the course of infection, generally before hospitalization. To me, this seems more likely coincidental or a reporting change.
- zamfi 6y ago
  Ahhh I meant to say "pretty unlikely that a change in therapy is the cause" above.