It will be fascinating to see the studies years from now. Comparing things like people who graduated in 2019 vs those who graduated in 2020 (a few months of sc

It will be fascinating to see the studies years from now. Comparing things like people who graduated in 2019 vs those who graduated in 2020 (a few months of school disrupted) vs 2021 (more than a year of school disrupted). There may be difficult confounders to deal with, like "the economy also changed a lot due to the pandemic", so it's hard to compare across years; "having already found a job before the pandemic" would also be significant, so it's hard to compare differently-aged people during the same year. The best would be something like comparing people from different U.S. states or cities that are roughly similar, but one city shut down school much longer than the other. (Perhaps even comparing schools, although "whether a school decided to err on the side of staying shut down" probably correlates with something that would affect kids' performance.) Anyway, let me pre-register my prediction that, if good studies can be done, they will show that kids who were forced to miss a year of school (or in-person school, at least) will not have been measurably negatively impacted by it.