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> The article claims that Tesla valuation is not based on fundamentals but it fails to present any fundamental model. > If they keep growing at 30-50% for the
by rjkennedy98 6y ago
> The article claims that Tesla valuation is not based on fundamentals but it fails to present any fundamental model.
> If they keep growing at 30-50% for the next 5 to 10 years
What makes it a bubble is the above statement you just made which sounds reasonable but is actually absurd. I'm curious how in year 10 Tesla will grow 50%. Do you have any idea how big that number is? How will that be accomplished?
Curious, I just ran math on Tesla growth at 50% for 10 years. That means Tesla's revenue will be 1.2 trillion dollars and in year 10 it will GAIN 461 billion dollars worth of revenue growth.
For comparison's sake, in 2019 Telsa revenue grew 15% (by 3 billion dollars) to 24.5 billion.
I've listened to the bulls continuously say things Tesla can double every year for the next 10 years and so on, but there is no path there. It always involves moonshots like self-driving taxis, a new eletric grid powered by Tesla batteries ect ect. All of these are super low margin businesses with heavy competition that require heavy investment with unexpected payoff.