I think there's a crucial difference between TSLA, bitcoin and other "pure" bubbles. I would include The Dotcom in the pure bubble category... definitions are s

I think there's a crucial difference between TSLA, bitcoin and other "pure" bubbles. I would include The Dotcom in the pure bubble category... definitions are soft therefore debatable. This is IMO. "Stocks (in a bubble) can become inflated through mania-fueled narratives - not fundamentals." I disagree on nuance. Narrative often drops off during a pure bubble. Rising prices fuel mania and further rising stock prices. This is a key element of bubbles: feedback. We have a debate about TSLA in 2019. You say it's overpriced. I buy TSLA. I make money. We argue again. It's hard for you to win the argument now. Bubble narrative tends to get vague as time goes on. Bitcoin's narrative was that it would be a real currency. People would get bitcoin salaries and buy groceries with it. That isn't the narrative anymore. The dotcom narrative, towards the end, became a vague "this is just how the economy works now." The mania was there. The stock prices were there. The narrative itself fell off. Uber is another good example. What's the narrative now? Tesla has some differences. A "narrative" is actually driving stock prices. Tesla investors are betting on certain things being achieved. They may or may not be achieved, and that will determine whether or not it was a good investment. Narrative 1 is (at current prices), break-even or less for investors: Tesla will keep its position in the EV market, but the EV market will grow massively. Narrative 2 is: Self driving is coming soon. Tesla is in position and others are not. The first half of the narrative is suspect. "Soon" can be a long time. The second half is (IMO), pretty solid. It takes time to make new models of cars. This is the other extreme to software. If all factories switched in one day, it still takes a decade to replace the full fleet. Meanwhile, factories long lead times. Etc. If the software works and they get a regulatory green light, Tesla immediately controls an existing fleet and all their new cars are immediately self driving. It's a very big lead in a very, very saucy new market. Now... You can think that's likely or unlikely. But, A Tesla share is really a bet on this narrative/prediction becoming reality. A bitcoin is no longer a bet on any prediction besides future prices. "Sometimes, performance becomes completely untethered to any analyzable fundamentals." This is true, but I think it mistakes what these "fundamentals" mean. It's like using BMI to determine if someone is fat. True, on average. Average is good enough for a stock analyst or an insurance actuary concerned with portfolios and populations. For any individual though, the "mirror test" is more accurate than BMI. The fundamentals of any day 1 startup always say "don't buy." A more fundamental fundamental is (value)=([p]narrative 1)X([$}narrative 1) + ([p]narrative2)X([$}narrative2) Insert your own probabilities(p) and values and you have your guess at Tesla's "real" value. Whatever you think of current prices, you have to be extremely bearish to come up with a value that reflect TSLA's current "fundamentals".