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Show HN: Alarmism.watch – I made a website that tracks alarmist predictions

16 points by shubhamjain 6y ago

CiTyBear 6y ago
Very interesting. However many "Failed" lack of sources. The links used as proof are usually Think Tank which are far from objectives about information.
roelb 6y ago
Think this should show the status as a percentage of the predicted value, not a boolean "failed". 99% would still be marked here as Failed?
JoshuaDavid 6y ago
The mass extinction ones are true by most definitions of "mass extinction", no? Am I missing something that flags the alarming prediction as true, false, or undecided? I'm on mobile so it might be a display issue.
mosselman 6y ago
At least make things accurate: The claim 'Britain to have Siberian climate in 20 years' was made in 2004 (according to the table) and its status is 'failed'. Last time I checked it isn't 2024 yet. I think it will still be a fail then, but that is besides the point.
autophagian 6y ago
Some of these are a little odd. You classify the "Coronavirus pandemic could cause 40 million deaths if left unchecked" as false, with the explanation that though we're still in the pandemic, it will never reach that high. But the claim was specifically that it could cause that amount of deaths "if unchecked" and no preventative measures were put in place. But preventative measures were put in place? The claim isn't proven false by the current situation since the conditions that the claim was talking about didn't occur. If I made the claim "If I don't eat today, I will get hungry", ate food and therefore didn't get hungry, I wouldn't say my initial claim was invalid.
- shubhamjain 6y ago
  The same model predicted 96K deaths for Sweden, a country that eschewed lockdown measures or mask mandates [1]. The deaths topped at around 6K in Sweden. Sweden did take some precautions like restricting large gatherings but not enough to have an effect of this magnitude. [1]: https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/ https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-...
  - AstralStorm 6y ago
    Ensure you're tracking whether the populace is taking additional measures that are not mandated, and suddenly it starts to explain the error almost completely. Remember, policies do not execute themselves, and lack of policy does not imply lack of action. Other problems are also caused by wrong, simplistic models. E.g. SEIR might have estimated the total death count correctly, but not the timing or location at all. (Because the model is isotropic.) Plugging in annualized data for various airborne viruses into a Bayesian anomalous diffusion model gives much closer timings. Though there are a few models with varying base assumptions and the estimator used a mixture. (One using Spanish flu, next using common cold, another using seasonal flu. Separately the worst case is... common cold variant.)
- virgilp 6y ago
  Or > The coronavirus could kill millions of Americans: ‘Do the math,’ immunization specialist says How is that failed? Do we have a crystal ball that says it's all over/ this virus can't possibly mutate into something deadlier? I do agree it feels "unlikely" but marking it as "failed" is just a prediction at this point. what's even funnier is that the next prediction is already marked as "correct" even though we haven't touched 1Million global deaths yet. > 'We Are At War,' WHO Head Says, Warning Millions Could Die From COVID-19 --- on a different note, this is also strange: > 21 Indian cities will run out of ground water by 2020 Link Failed Resources 2030-40 2019 So it's made in 2019, but is it about 2020 or about 2030-40? Seems unlikely that it really is about 2020 if it was made in 2019.... unless it was all but guaranteed to become true (and then I'd like to know how they avoided it).
bluquark 6y ago
The list ought to include more of the correct instances of alarmism, and there are plenty to choose from. As they were semi-predictable events (aside from the exact year and severity), it should be possible to dig up roughly correct warnings about the 1929, 1999 and 2008 stock market bubbles, the rise of Hitler, the threat of a major terrorist attack circa 2001, and the severe health effects of adding lead to gasoline.
- shubhamjain 6y ago
  Yes, thank you for pointing that out. I plan to include more of those.
fuj 6y ago
I don't intend to make a political statement 99% of the claims are related to climate change denial Most of the claims do not even come from authoritative sources.
rhn_mk1 6y ago
This seems to have a problem of assuming the timeframe for the fulfillment of vague claims. For example, if the claim: "U.N. Predicts entire nations could be wiped-off if Global Warming Not Reversed by 2000" was made in 1989, I understand it as "we have until 2000 to work. Afterwards, the nations will be lost at some point". That seems what the source article claims too: > governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control. But what is the future point? I have no idea. The website slapped "failed" on this claim, so I guess it's 2000? That's rather useless, it's unresolved at best. Similar story with "Prince Charles: 'Only 8 years to save the planet'", "French Foreign Minister: '500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos'", "Internet as we know will end if net-neutrality is repealed." The last one is particularly funny, as all things, as we know them, will end one day. So it's strictly true. Another issue is not enough claims as "awaited". For example, "'We Are At War,' WHO Head Says, Warning Millions Could Die From COVID-19" is marked as "correct", based on a prediction rather than concrete data. Another sore one is "'Scottish skiing industry had no more than 20 years left.'" made in 2004 and already marked as failed, together with "Britain to have Siberian climate in 20 years" On the presentation side, "link" is the most useless way to indicate forther information. Of course it's a link! But what's behind it? Source? Confirmation? Rebuttal? A little labeling would go a long way. I like the idea, but the execution is a solid 5 out of 10.
- TheUndead96 6y ago
  I feel the same way. The best-case scenarios on all of the climate change charts have been scratched. 2 degrees of warming is basically a given and the debate is now one of damage control. The lag between action and effect is somewhere between 40 and 50 years. https://theconversation.com/if-we-stopped-emitting-greenhouse-gases-right-now-would-we-stop-climate-change-78882 https://theconversation.com/if-we-stopped-emitting-greenhous... If all human-induced green houses gasses stopped right now, things would still get worse. Which is why it was important to panic 10 years ago.
- shubhamjain 6y ago
  I disagree. If you're making a claim that we are in an economic bubble, you can't claim victory if there's a stock market crash after twenty years. Similarly, if you're saying that only X years left before things take turn for the worse, you can't say, "Hey, I did say at some point it will." '500 days' is particularly funny since I don't see what climate models give such a definite timeline. I don't think it hurts to rely on common sense a bit. There's absolutely no scientific reason to think that Britain will turn into Siberia in four years. Global cooling, which was a major fear, has long disappeared from Climate Change discussion. Besides, there are many stories with definite timelines that portray the sentiments. For eg, food shortages and global cooling were major doomsday fears in 1970s.
mekkkkkk 6y ago
The idea behind this is brilliant, and I support the sentiment. Unfortunately, for this to work effectively, you really need to be accurate and precise. As others pointed out, a lot of the items lacks sources and/or have questionable verdicts.
tomcdonnell 6y ago
More specific claims have been made and held accountable at http://longbets.com http://longbets.com.
tomcam 6y ago
Not sitting well with the HN hive mind, but I love it. Thanks for a fun and well-executed idea. I predict this comment will be at -4 points by 10am PST 9/2/2020!
- tomcam 6y ago
  Update: happy to say my statement was wrong, and that I had no intention of using HN’s proclivities against itself to keep the comment score above water.
jtthe13 6y ago
Mind you, Even a broken clock is right twice a day...and it only takes one alarmist prediction to turn out to be true to make it an utter disaster.

16 points by shubhamjain 6y ago

Very interesting. However many "Failed" lack of sources. The links used as proof are usually Think Tank which are far from objectives about information.

roelb 6y ago

Think this should show the status as a percentage of the predicted value, not a boolean "failed". 99% would still be marked here as Failed?

JoshuaDavid 6y ago

The mass extinction ones are true by most definitions of "mass extinction", no? Am I missing something that flags the alarming prediction as true, false, or undecided? I'm on mobile so it might be a display issue.

mosselman 6y ago

At least make things accurate: The claim 'Britain to have Siberian climate in 20 years' was made in 2004 (according to the table) and its status is 'failed'. Last time I checked it isn't 2024 yet. I think it will still be a fail then, but that is besides the point.

autophagian 6y ago

Some of these are a little odd. You classify the "Coronavirus pandemic could cause 40 million deaths if left unchecked" as false, with the explanation that though we're still in the pandemic, it will never reach that high. But the claim was specifically that it could cause that amount of deaths "if unchecked" and no preventative measures were put in place. But preventative measures were put in place? The claim isn't proven false by the current situation since the conditions that the claim was talking about didn't occur. If I made the claim "If I don't eat today, I will get hungry", ate food and therefore didn't get hungry, I wouldn't say my initial claim was invalid.

shubhamjain 6y ago
The same model predicted 96K deaths for Sweden, a country that eschewed lockdown measures or mask mandates [1]. The deaths topped at around 6K in Sweden. Sweden did take some precautions like restricting large gatherings but not enough to have an effect of this magnitude. [1]: https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/ https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-...
- AstralStorm 6y ago
  Ensure you're tracking whether the populace is taking additional measures that are not mandated, and suddenly it starts to explain the error almost completely. Remember, policies do not execute themselves, and lack of policy does not imply lack of action. Other problems are also caused by wrong, simplistic models. E.g. SEIR might have estimated the total death count correctly, but not the timing or location at all. (Because the model is isotropic.) Plugging in annualized data for various airborne viruses into a Bayesian anomalous diffusion model gives much closer timings. Though there are a few models with varying base assumptions and the estimator used a mixture. (One using Spanish flu, next using common cold, another using seasonal flu. Separately the worst case is... common cold variant.)
virgilp 6y ago
Or > The coronavirus could kill millions of Americans: ‘Do the math,’ immunization specialist says How is that failed? Do we have a crystal ball that says it's all over/ this virus can't possibly mutate into something deadlier? I do agree it feels "unlikely" but marking it as "failed" is just a prediction at this point. what's even funnier is that the next prediction is already marked as "correct" even though we haven't touched 1Million global deaths yet. > 'We Are At War,' WHO Head Says, Warning Millions Could Die From COVID-19 --- on a different note, this is also strange: > 21 Indian cities will run out of ground water by 2020 Link Failed Resources 2030-40 2019 So it's made in 2019, but is it about 2020 or about 2030-40? Seems unlikely that it really is about 2020 if it was made in 2019.... unless it was all but guaranteed to become true (and then I'd like to know how they avoided it).

bluquark 6y ago

The list ought to include more of the correct instances of alarmism, and there are plenty to choose from. As they were semi-predictable events (aside from the exact year and severity), it should be possible to dig up roughly correct warnings about the 1929, 1999 and 2008 stock market bubbles, the rise of Hitler, the threat of a major terrorist attack circa 2001, and the severe health effects of adding lead to gasoline.

shubhamjain 6y ago
Yes, thank you for pointing that out. I plan to include more of those.

fuj 6y ago

I don't intend to make a political statement 99% of the claims are related to climate change denial Most of the claims do not even come from authoritative sources.

rhn_mk1 6y ago

This seems to have a problem of assuming the timeframe for the fulfillment of vague claims. For example, if the claim: "U.N. Predicts entire nations could be wiped-off if Global Warming Not Reversed by 2000" was made in 1989, I understand it as "we have until 2000 to work. Afterwards, the nations will be lost at some point". That seems what the source article claims too: > governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control. But what is the future point? I have no idea. The website slapped "failed" on this claim, so I guess it's 2000? That's rather useless, it's unresolved at best. Similar story with "Prince Charles: 'Only 8 years to save the planet'", "French Foreign Minister: '500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos'", "Internet as we know will end if net-neutrality is repealed." The last one is particularly funny, as all things, as we know them, will end one day. So it's strictly true. Another issue is not enough claims as "awaited". For example, "'We Are At War,' WHO Head Says, Warning Millions Could Die From COVID-19" is marked as "correct", based on a prediction rather than concrete data. Another sore one is "'Scottish skiing industry had no more than 20 years left.'" made in 2004 and already marked as failed, together with "Britain to have Siberian climate in 20 years" On the presentation side, "link" is the most useless way to indicate forther information. Of course it's a link! But what's behind it? Source? Confirmation? Rebuttal? A little labeling would go a long way. I like the idea, but the execution is a solid 5 out of 10.

TheUndead96 6y ago
I feel the same way. The best-case scenarios on all of the climate change charts have been scratched. 2 degrees of warming is basically a given and the debate is now one of damage control. The lag between action and effect is somewhere between 40 and 50 years. https://theconversation.com/if-we-stopped-emitting-greenhouse-gases-right-now-would-we-stop-climate-change-78882 https://theconversation.com/if-we-stopped-emitting-greenhous... If all human-induced green houses gasses stopped right now, things would still get worse. Which is why it was important to panic 10 years ago.
shubhamjain 6y ago
I disagree. If you're making a claim that we are in an economic bubble, you can't claim victory if there's a stock market crash after twenty years. Similarly, if you're saying that only X years left before things take turn for the worse, you can't say, "Hey, I did say at some point it will." '500 days' is particularly funny since I don't see what climate models give such a definite timeline. I don't think it hurts to rely on common sense a bit. There's absolutely no scientific reason to think that Britain will turn into Siberia in four years. Global cooling, which was a major fear, has long disappeared from Climate Change discussion. Besides, there are many stories with definite timelines that portray the sentiments. For eg, food shortages and global cooling were major doomsday fears in 1970s.

mekkkkkk 6y ago

The idea behind this is brilliant, and I support the sentiment. Unfortunately, for this to work effectively, you really need to be accurate and precise. As others pointed out, a lot of the items lacks sources and/or have questionable verdicts.

tomcdonnell 6y ago

More specific claims have been made and held accountable at http://longbets.com http://longbets.com.

tomcam 6y ago

Not sitting well with the HN hive mind, but I love it. Thanks for a fun and well-executed idea. I predict this comment will be at -4 points by 10am PST 9/2/2020!

tomcam 6y ago
Update: happy to say my statement was wrong, and that I had no intention of using HN’s proclivities against itself to keep the comment score above water.

jtthe13 6y ago

Mind you, Even a broken clock is right twice a day...and it only takes one alarmist prediction to turn out to be true to make it an utter disaster.