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They're still investing heavily into YouTube Premium (no longer Red) now so I don't see them getting rid of it anytime soon.

by xmprt 6y ago

metiscus 6y ago
It's also still too early in the google ADHD cycle to kill it. Probably just reaching mid life at this point.
- google234123 6y ago
  Nah, YouTube Premium makes sense. It's basically TY without ads. Why would that be too hard to maintain?
  - xmprt 6y ago
    You hit the nail on its head. Google usually discontinues products which have high maintenance cost so even if it turns out that YT Premium makes less money than people watching ads (and I highly doubt the average person watches more than $10 worth of ads in a month), they'll still keep it.
    - adambyrtek 6y ago
      Not really, for example Reader had really low maintenance costs. In fact at some point it was maintained by some of its former developers in their 20% time with no official head count.
      - metiscus 6y ago
        I think it is a side effect of what keeps google from turning into IBM. Ossification is a perennial problem for large corporations especially traditional growth companies. They make their few big things then iterate on them. The "ADHD" shown by google, while it is annoying to users to have a perfectly serviceable piece of software discontinued unceremoniously, probably keeps the internal structure from becoming rigid and failing to adapt. I think they are probably slightly too far over on the side of kill stuff and move on but I'm not a multibillion dollar company.
      - CydeWeys 6y ago
        Having zero headcount is the death knell for a project about to be cancelled. It only had low maintenance costs because the team was disbanded, presumably because it wasn't worth paying to maintain.
      - google234123 6y ago
        The story behind reader is more complicated than that.
ulfw 6y ago
It’s Google. The level of investment isn’t correlated to the propensity for cancellation. Remember the most expensive ever Google product? Plus? Right...
- boringg 6y ago
  Or do you mean glass?
- google234123 6y ago
  What? I'm pretty sure Cloud, Geo, and Search have more total investment than Plus.
- tmpz22 6y ago
  Pretty sure self-driving will be the biggest loss, theyll make money from it and have relevance but itll be way less than they put into it so early
  - eru 6y ago
    Do you know how much money Google has ever invested in Waymo ever? I tried to search for a number, but couldn't come up with much. Obviously, this number would be very important in judging whether self-driving will be a loss for them.
    - tmpz22 6y ago
      > Google had spent $1.1 billion on the project [1] The wikipedia also mentions Waymo raising ~2B and ~3b rounds that IIRC Google participated in as well. I'm surprised its so low honestly. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo
      - eru 6y ago
        Thanks. I should have thought to check on Wikipedia! If you are willing to wait and just judge by eventually realised revenue, Waymo might still turn out to be a loss. But if you judge by current valuations (which reflect informed investors best guess of future revenue streams), then even after a recent major decrease we still have 30 billions USD. That looks pretty decent for an investment of 1.1B + ~3B total.

They're still investing heavily into YouTube Premium (no longer Red) now so I don't see them getting rid of it anytime soon.

by xmprt 6y ago

They're still investing heavily into YouTube Premium (no longer Red) now so I don't see them getting rid of it anytime soon.

metiscus 6y ago

It's also still too early in the google ADHD cycle to kill it. Probably just reaching mid life at this point.

google234123 6y ago
Nah, YouTube Premium makes sense. It's basically TY without ads. Why would that be too hard to maintain?
- xmprt 6y ago
  You hit the nail on its head. Google usually discontinues products which have high maintenance cost so even if it turns out that YT Premium makes less money than people watching ads (and I highly doubt the average person watches more than $10 worth of ads in a month), they'll still keep it.
  - adambyrtek 6y ago
    Not really, for example Reader had really low maintenance costs. In fact at some point it was maintained by some of its former developers in their 20% time with no official head count.
    - metiscus 6y ago
      I think it is a side effect of what keeps google from turning into IBM. Ossification is a perennial problem for large corporations especially traditional growth companies. They make their few big things then iterate on them. The "ADHD" shown by google, while it is annoying to users to have a perfectly serviceable piece of software discontinued unceremoniously, probably keeps the internal structure from becoming rigid and failing to adapt. I think they are probably slightly too far over on the side of kill stuff and move on but I'm not a multibillion dollar company.
    - CydeWeys 6y ago
      Having zero headcount is the death knell for a project about to be cancelled. It only had low maintenance costs because the team was disbanded, presumably because it wasn't worth paying to maintain.
    - google234123 6y ago
      The story behind reader is more complicated than that.

ulfw 6y ago

It’s Google. The level of investment isn’t correlated to the propensity for cancellation. Remember the most expensive ever Google product? Plus? Right...

boringg 6y ago
Or do you mean glass?
google234123 6y ago
What? I'm pretty sure Cloud, Geo, and Search have more total investment than Plus.
tmpz22 6y ago
Pretty sure self-driving will be the biggest loss, theyll make money from it and have relevance but itll be way less than they put into it so early
- eru 6y ago
  Do you know how much money Google has ever invested in Waymo ever? I tried to search for a number, but couldn't come up with much. Obviously, this number would be very important in judging whether self-driving will be a loss for them.
  - tmpz22 6y ago
    > Google had spent $1.1 billion on the project [1] The wikipedia also mentions Waymo raising ~2B and ~3b rounds that IIRC Google participated in as well. I'm surprised its so low honestly. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo
    - eru 6y ago
      Thanks. I should have thought to check on Wikipedia! If you are willing to wait and just judge by eventually realised revenue, Waymo might still turn out to be a loss. But if you judge by current valuations (which reflect informed investors best guess of future revenue streams), then even after a recent major decrease we still have 30 billions USD. That looks pretty decent for an investment of 1.1B + ~3B total.