4 ms·

feels like Covid has put a serious dent on interest in mass transit...used car sales are through the roof. and people seem to be moving out of urban areas to su

by xoxoy 6y ago

feels like Covid has put a serious dent on interest in mass transit...used car sales are through the roof. and people seem to be moving out of urban areas to suburbs.

jeffbee 6y ago
> used car sales are through the roof There doesn't seem to be data supporting this assertion in the US. Used car sales were slightly up in June 2020 vs. June 2019, but May was flat and April and March were way, way down. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?dwnld=0&hires=1&type=image/png&bgcolor=%23e1e9f0&chart_type=line&drp=0&fo=open%20sans&graph_bgcolor=%23ffffff&height=450&mode=fred&recession_bars=on&txtcolor=%23444444&ts=12&tts=12&width=1168&nt=0&thu=0&trc=0&show_legend=yes&show_axis_titles=yes&show_tooltip=yes&id=MRTSSM44112USN&scale=left&cosd=2015-06-01&coed=2020-06-01&line_color=%234572a7&link_values=false&line_style=solid&mark_type=none&mw=3&lw=2&ost=-99999&oet=99999&mma=0&fml=a&fq=Monthly&fam=avg&fgst=lin&fgsnd=2020-02-01&line_index=1&transformation=lin&vintage_date=2020-09-01&revision_date=2020-09-01&nd=1992-01-01 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?dwnld=0&hire... Sales of all cars are way, way down https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
- xoxoy 6y ago
  because dealers are supply constrained. there’s a dozen articles on how used car prices are at historical highs right now due to supply constraints
- wrkronmiller 6y ago
  This data is only thru dealerships, I believe. Anecdotally: I know no one who takes public transit in NYC anymore. They either bicycle, bought a car, left the city, or stay home. Generally: Many people have fled the city to suburbs where, presumably, they will need cars.
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    This report which is based on DMV data seems to conclude that all vehicle registrations, new and used, dealer or not, are way off (pg. 8) https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20.pdf https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20.... No argument that the subway is having a bad year. MTA bus ridership might be off less than you imagine, though. And citibike ridership is up 20%. I don't live in NY anymore so I don't have any anecdotes.
  - epistasis 6y ago
    Going beyond anecdote to data shows the US transit ridership is down, but I don't think this is based on the reality of transmission possibilities. When people get scared, they retreat from that which culture tells them to fear, which includes transit for the US. However, when you look at other places that use lots of transit, like Japan and Korea, we don't see much spread on transit. So the fear is not so much reality based. In plain contrast, churches are shown to have had many super-spread events, including in South Korea, yet people seemingly can't wait to get back to church, perhaps because it is a place that they view as intrinsically safe even though the evidence shows otherwise. In short, humans are really bad at evaluating risk, especially in our current media environment which is has a very low Signal to noise ratio.
    - clairity 6y ago
      > "In short, humans are really bad at evaluating risk, especially in our current media environment which is has a very low Signal to noise ratio." that needs to be printed and hung on every door in america, as a constant reminder that we're in all the messes we're in because we're individually, and sometimes even collectively, bad at assessing risk. the near-singular infatuation with covid relative to everything else that can and does kill us is rationally misguided (which is not to say ignore covid, just put it in its relative place). and news outlets like npr and nytimes that used to be considered relatively neutral are simply no longer trustworthy. self-righteous assertions of control with little concrete understanding is a dangerous road to be traveling down.
      - bregma 6y ago
        Not only that, but many Americans seem to misinterpret satire, like the Fox News entertainment network tends to broadcast, as fact or news. I think it comes down to poor education. Not being familiar with the pedagogy I am certainly not in a position to recommend improvements, but I can say that if the obvious is getting so badly misinterpreted to the point of real harm, someone has not learned the basics very well.
        clairity 6y ago

by xoxoy 6y ago

feels like Covid has put a serious dent on interest in mass transit...used car sales are through the roof. and people seem to be moving out of urban areas to suburbs.

jeffbee 6y ago

> used car sales are through the roof There doesn't seem to be data supporting this assertion in the US. Used car sales were slightly up in June 2020 vs. June 2019, but May was flat and April and March were way, way down. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?dwnld=0&hires=1&type=image/png&bgcolor=%23e1e9f0&chart_type=line&drp=0&fo=open%20sans&graph_bgcolor=%23ffffff&height=450&mode=fred&recession_bars=on&txtcolor=%23444444&ts=12&tts=12&width=1168&nt=0&thu=0&trc=0&show_legend=yes&show_axis_titles=yes&show_tooltip=yes&id=MRTSSM44112USN&scale=left&cosd=2015-06-01&coed=2020-06-01&line_color=%234572a7&link_values=false&line_style=solid&mark_type=none&mw=3&lw=2&ost=-99999&oet=99999&mma=0&fml=a&fq=Monthly&fam=avg&fgst=lin&fgsnd=2020-02-01&line_index=1&transformation=lin&vintage_date=2020-09-01&revision_date=2020-09-01&nd=1992-01-01 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?dwnld=0&hire... Sales of all cars are way, way down https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA

xoxoy 6y ago
because dealers are supply constrained. there’s a dozen articles on how used car prices are at historical highs right now due to supply constraints
wrkronmiller 6y ago
This data is only thru dealerships, I believe. Anecdotally: I know no one who takes public transit in NYC anymore. They either bicycle, bought a car, left the city, or stay home. Generally: Many people have fled the city to suburbs where, presumably, they will need cars.
- jeffbee 6y ago
  This report which is based on DMV data seems to conclude that all vehicle registrations, new and used, dealer or not, are way off (pg. 8) https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20.pdf https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20.... No argument that the subway is having a bad year. MTA bus ridership might be off less than you imagine, though. And citibike ridership is up 20%. I don't live in NY anymore so I don't have any anecdotes.
- epistasis 6y ago
  Going beyond anecdote to data shows the US transit ridership is down, but I don't think this is based on the reality of transmission possibilities. When people get scared, they retreat from that which culture tells them to fear, which includes transit for the US. However, when you look at other places that use lots of transit, like Japan and Korea, we don't see much spread on transit. So the fear is not so much reality based. In plain contrast, churches are shown to have had many super-spread events, including in South Korea, yet people seemingly can't wait to get back to church, perhaps because it is a place that they view as intrinsically safe even though the evidence shows otherwise. In short, humans are really bad at evaluating risk, especially in our current media environment which is has a very low Signal to noise ratio.
  - clairity 6y ago
    > "In short, humans are really bad at evaluating risk, especially in our current media environment which is has a very low Signal to noise ratio." that needs to be printed and hung on every door in america, as a constant reminder that we're in all the messes we're in because we're individually, and sometimes even collectively, bad at assessing risk. the near-singular infatuation with covid relative to everything else that can and does kill us is rationally misguided (which is not to say ignore covid, just put it in its relative place). and news outlets like npr and nytimes that used to be considered relatively neutral are simply no longer trustworthy. self-righteous assertions of control with little concrete understanding is a dangerous road to be traveling down.
    - bregma 6y ago
      Not only that, but many Americans seem to misinterpret satire, like the Fox News entertainment network tends to broadcast, as fact or news. I think it comes down to poor education. Not being familiar with the pedagogy I am certainly not in a position to recommend improvements, but I can say that if the obvious is getting so badly misinterpreted to the point of real harm, someone has not learned the basics very well.
      - clairity 6y ago