5 ms·

They have had single digit death rates for months. Your statement may have been accurate 3 months ago but have you looked lately? They're done with Covid just

They have had single digit death rates for months. Your statement may have been accurate 3 months ago but have you looked lately? They're done with Covid just like Tegnell predicted meanwhile a good amount of the world that locked down is still fighting it.

_Microft 6y ago
Are you referring to the case fatality rate? It's indeed single-digit for Sweden, albeit twice as high as other nordic countries or Germany: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=SWE~DEU~FIN~NOR~DNK&cfrMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS...
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  Nice Cherry Picking. France, Italy, Hungary, Spain, Belgium, UK, Netherlands, all have worse CFR's than Sweden. Also, all of Europe in aggregate is pretty close to Sweden. It's fascinating to see how people are so devoted to demonizing Sweden. Also, CFR is a weird measure to use. 1 infection and 1 death is a 100% CFR even if the rest of the population is fine!!!! ref: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=SWE~Europe&cfrMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS...
  - IvyMike 6y ago
    > France, Italy, Hungary, Spain, Belgium, UK, Netherlands, all have worse CFR's than Sweden. I mean if we're gonna talk about cherry-picking, did you notice that more than half of the countries you picked were the earliest hot-spots of the outbreak in Europe? In any case, although the comment you are referring to mentions CFR, the article itself does not use CFR, it uses "Confirmed deaths per million people" as its metric. Still hard to see Sweden as a particularly standout good case in that data.
    - nickthemagicman 6y ago
      That's almost every country in Europe. Not sure your claim that they're all hot spots stands up. But I can see you're super invested in your narrative and we're not going to have a meeting of the minds on this one. Best luck to you anyway.
      - juliendorra 6y ago
        Sweden political narrative a few months ago was: "we are doing much better than other European countries by doing different." Then they had to shut down secondary schools and universities, ban assemblies over 50 people, extend paid sick-leave without consulting a doctor to 21 days and no first-day penalty, forbid visits in care homes, and other measures, and yet have a worst death per capita ratio than many countries, including their closest neighbors (and France where the lockdown was too late but effective nonetheless at flattening the death per capita ratio). Sweden ratio is close to Italy’s death per capita, which is not considered a success in Europe. The US death per capita ratio is still growing quite fast and will cross Sweden and Italy in a few days, later UK. Hopefully it will not reach Belgium levels… So Sweden is certainly not a good example. Not the worst (Belgium is so sad…) either. They managed, probably did some things right, as they have now a flattened death curve, but they had a few weeks to prepare and ended up with a similar ratio than Italy. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-03-05..latest&country=BEL~FRA~DEU~ITA~NOR~SWE~USA~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-mi...
  - _Microft 6y ago
    > 1 infection and 1 death is a 100% CFR even if the rest of the population is fine! The number of infections per million inhabitants in Sweden is also not better than the numbers from countries from the selection. [0] Maybe just pick a different of the nordic countries as new role model and argue for that in the future? [0] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&time=2020-08-07..latest&country=SWE~DEU~FIN~NOR~DNK&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS...
    - nickthemagicman 6y ago
      Nordic categorization is a cherry picked categorization to fit a demonizing of Sweden narrative. Sweden is on par with the rest of Europe with all manner of their Corona stats.
Rebelgecko 6y ago
Why would the current death rate be a better metric than overall deaths?
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  Because Sweden is done with the virus. Their countries death count is still rising. Sweden front-loaded their deaths everyone else is going to catch up.
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    > everyone else is going to catch up. Or get a vaccine.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - Rebelgecko 6y ago
    When will China and Taiwan catch up? You're talking about potentially millions of deaths
    - nickthemagicman 6y ago
      The only way out is through. It's all just delaying otherwise.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      - Rebelgecko 6y ago
        I don't understand. Those countries were able to make it out without going "through" the massive death rates of countries like Sweden and the US. Do you think they are just delaying the inevitable? Will the whole world end up with a death rate as high as SWE?
        6y ago
olodus 6y ago
While I agree that it seems our strategy has gotten its results the past months, I don't really agree that this would point to it being a successful strategy overall. We will need to update our strategy for future pandemics. The most important part of Sweden's deaths (which imo i see way too few talk about) is that more ~98% of them are in ages >50. I would say our strategy of trusting the population to by their own following safety precautions (not large gatherings, work from home of possible...) to keep the infection rate somewhat stable while infections increase, was ok. The thing we really need to change 'til next time is protecting our old and vulnerable better. Though that needs larger changes in the elder care as a whole so that will be a hard thing to achieve.
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  Well numerous Swedish epidemiologists would disagree with your assessment.

_Microft 6y ago

Are you referring to the case fatality rate? It's indeed single-digit for Sweden, albeit twice as high as other nordic countries or Germany: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=SWE~DEU~FIN~NOR~DNK&cfrMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS...

nickthemagicman 6y ago
Nice Cherry Picking. France, Italy, Hungary, Spain, Belgium, UK, Netherlands, all have worse CFR's than Sweden. Also, all of Europe in aggregate is pretty close to Sweden. It's fascinating to see how people are so devoted to demonizing Sweden. Also, CFR is a weird measure to use. 1 infection and 1 death is a 100% CFR even if the rest of the population is fine!!!! ref: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=SWE~Europe&cfrMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS...
- IvyMike 6y ago
  > France, Italy, Hungary, Spain, Belgium, UK, Netherlands, all have worse CFR's than Sweden. I mean if we're gonna talk about cherry-picking, did you notice that more than half of the countries you picked were the earliest hot-spots of the outbreak in Europe? In any case, although the comment you are referring to mentions CFR, the article itself does not use CFR, it uses "Confirmed deaths per million people" as its metric. Still hard to see Sweden as a particularly standout good case in that data.
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    That's almost every country in Europe. Not sure your claim that they're all hot spots stands up. But I can see you're super invested in your narrative and we're not going to have a meeting of the minds on this one. Best luck to you anyway.
    - juliendorra 6y ago
      Sweden political narrative a few months ago was: "we are doing much better than other European countries by doing different." Then they had to shut down secondary schools and universities, ban assemblies over 50 people, extend paid sick-leave without consulting a doctor to 21 days and no first-day penalty, forbid visits in care homes, and other measures, and yet have a worst death per capita ratio than many countries, including their closest neighbors (and France where the lockdown was too late but effective nonetheless at flattening the death per capita ratio). Sweden ratio is close to Italy’s death per capita, which is not considered a success in Europe. The US death per capita ratio is still growing quite fast and will cross Sweden and Italy in a few days, later UK. Hopefully it will not reach Belgium levels… So Sweden is certainly not a good example. Not the worst (Belgium is so sad…) either. They managed, probably did some things right, as they have now a flattened death curve, but they had a few weeks to prepare and ended up with a similar ratio than Italy. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-03-05..latest&country=BEL~FRA~DEU~ITA~NOR~SWE~USA~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-mi...
- _Microft 6y ago
  > 1 infection and 1 death is a 100% CFR even if the rest of the population is fine! The number of infections per million inhabitants in Sweden is also not better than the numbers from countries from the selection. [0] Maybe just pick a different of the nordic countries as new role model and argue for that in the future? [0] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&time=2020-08-07..latest&country=SWE~DEU~FIN~NOR~DNK&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS...
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    Nordic categorization is a cherry picked categorization to fit a demonizing of Sweden narrative. Sweden is on par with the rest of Europe with all manner of their Corona stats.

Rebelgecko 6y ago

Why would the current death rate be a better metric than overall deaths?

nickthemagicman 6y ago
Because Sweden is done with the virus. Their countries death count is still rising. Sweden front-loaded their deaths everyone else is going to catch up.
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > everyone else is going to catch up. Or get a vaccine.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- Rebelgecko 6y ago
  When will China and Taiwan catch up? You're talking about potentially millions of deaths
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    The only way out is through. It's all just delaying otherwise.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - Rebelgecko 6y ago
      I don't understand. Those countries were able to make it out without going "through" the massive death rates of countries like Sweden and the US. Do you think they are just delaying the inevitable? Will the whole world end up with a death rate as high as SWE?
      - 6y ago

olodus 6y ago

While I agree that it seems our strategy has gotten its results the past months, I don't really agree that this would point to it being a successful strategy overall. We will need to update our strategy for future pandemics. The most important part of Sweden's deaths (which imo i see way too few talk about) is that more ~98% of them are in ages >50. I would say our strategy of trusting the population to by their own following safety precautions (not large gatherings, work from home of possible...) to keep the infection rate somewhat stable while infections increase, was ok. The thing we really need to change 'til next time is protecting our old and vulnerable better. Though that needs larger changes in the elder care as a whole so that will be a hard thing to achieve.

nickthemagicman 6y ago
Well numerous Swedish epidemiologists would disagree with your assessment.