You'd have to go off expected values. Throwing numbers out: If you expect 1 death per 1,000 residents with a Cat 4 strike, and the city is 1,000,000 people, yo

You'd have to go off expected values. Throwing numbers out: If you expect 1 death per 1,000 residents with a Cat 4 strike, and the city is 1,000,000 people, you'd get 1,000 deaths. If there is a 25% chance of a strike, then you expect 250 deaths. I know that math is a bit funky, but that's what seems to be done. You compare that to the added deaths due to an evacuation event, and then whatever the math says, you should then do. I agree, it seems strange. But I'm at a loss as to how else you should calculate things.