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Hypothesis: Houston residents were nudged towards sitting tight instead of running for the hills, by Covid-19. They had either lived through, or seen pictures
by rossdavidh 6y ago
Hypothesis: Houston residents were nudged towards sitting tight instead of running for the hills, by Covid-19. They had either lived through, or seen pictures of, the Rita evacuation that turned into a parking lot. The idea of being packed into a crowd, even if you are in your own car, gave a gut-level push in the direction opposite what fear of the hurricane gave.
However, I also found myself thinking, if there was really a 25% chance of a hurricane strike, was it really the right thing to not evacuate? Well, given that Houston is probably not able to evacuate anyway, I suppose it was.
- Balgair 6y agoYou'd have to go off expected values. Throwing numbers out: If you expect 1 death per 1,000 residents with a Cat 4 strike, and the city is 1,000,000 people, you'd get 1,000 deaths. If there is a 25% chance of a strike, then you expect 250 deaths. I know that math is a bit funky, but that's what seems to be done. You compare that to the added deaths due to an evacuation event, and then whatever the math says, you should then do. I agree, it seems strange. But I'm at a loss as to how else you should calculate things.
- tolbish 6y agoCould a sliding scale work here? As in, for expected damage up to some threshold, advise only evacuating the most at-risk, such as those in lower elevations and in valleys, or those in older houses.