3 ms·
This is the same load of horsefeathers that is on display in every popular narrative arguing for herd immunity. The author writes: "We need to shield older peo
by legerdemain 6y ago
This is the same load of horsefeathers that is on display in every popular narrative arguing for herd immunity.
The author writes: "We need to shield older people and other high-risk groups until they are protected by herd immunity." I've read this sentence almost verbatim literally dozens of times over the last few months. Those who promote this meme either offer no explanation for how this can be done, or offer a hand-wavy and anemic explanation of what is really a titanic effort on an untried scale. The oldest members of our society either live with their families or are attended by medical caretakers, who are an obvious source of infection. We can't put our elderly into Bubble Boy-style hospital wards or ship them to Old People Island. If we all go back to work and school, we can't help dramatically increasing the risk to the elderly from increased social mingling and network effects.
The author offers the wan suggestion that the institutionalized elderly could be attended by a rotating cast of medical staff who are somehow certifiably safe. "Immunity passports" have been a conservative meme since the start of the epidemic, when we had zero evidential foundation for such a belief. The body of evidence for COVID immunity remains mixed. Six months in, we are starting to see cases of apparently incontrovertible reinfection. The question whether one can be immune and yet still infectious remains open. The enthusiasm for the "immunity passport" meme among a segment of commentators really feels like a spectator's desire to see some dog-eat-dog competition in the labor force.
But all this, of course, is predicated on a third meme, which is that the effects of COVID are possible death for the very old and "water off a duck's back" for everyone else. No. A number of college athletes are currently grounded with pericarditis, a risky diagnosis with an indefinite time course. Unlike our Swiss cheese understanding of practical COVID immunity, our picture of COVID complications is becoming clearer, and it includes common incidence of dangerous internal inflammation, reduced lung function, and chronic fatigue. If we're concerned about the drag on our economy, let's consider what kind of drag a chronically ill labor force will generate. This is the scenario in third-world countries, where infectious diseases like malaria and AIDS eat into labor productivity and sap the average life expectancy.
In other words, this is a dangerous complex of memes that show up in tandem and aren't particularly affected by gathering evidence. It is externally motivated and could very well endanger each of us individually.
- lbeltrame 6y agoRegarding the so called long term effects: is there any research that tells us how prevalent they are? A lot of people mention cases like these, I'd like to see some figures, also taking into account that pulmonary problems and fatigue, for one, are common to other diseases (even treatable ones). To be clear: I have no interest in downplaying severe effects of this infection. But I want to look at the whole picture.
- legerdemain 6y agoHere's a two-month-old summary of a few studies from JAMA Cardiology.[1] The most-quoted result is the Puntmann, et al., which has been amended after scrutiny, but showed pretty much the same pattern of results. Googling "COVID" + "cardiomyopathy" offers some more leads. For example, [2]. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768915 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/... [2] https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88060 https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88060
- lbeltrame 6y agoThanks. Note that the JAMA editorial acknowledges the need for further studies, because the numbers are very small (compared to the known number of patients): > We wish not to generate additional anxiety but rather to incite other investigators to carefully examine existing and prospectively collect new data in other populations to confirm or refute these findings. Which is AFAICS the crux of the matter. No one knows how widespread these problems are.
- legerdemain 6y agoNot to diminish the need for further research, but [1]. I encourage you to consider the growing number of cases of cardiomyopathy in college athletes, who are presumably in the invincible 18-21 age range and also not particularly numerous as a population. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Further_research_is_needed https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Further_research_is_needed